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The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder: Two New Hampshire Polls Will Show Shrinking Clinton Lead

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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 12:36 PM
Original message
The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder: Two New Hampshire Polls Will Show Shrinking Clinton Lead
Two New Hampshire Polls Will Show Shrinking Clinton Lead

09 Nov 2007 12:02 pm

Two new reputable polls of New Hampshire Democratic Primary voters will show statistically significant drops in support for frontrtunner Hillary Clinton, Democrats who have seen those polls said today.

The polls will be released this weekend and are embargoed; though I'm not privy to the embargo agreement, I'll be a little vague out of respect for the polling organizations.

One of the polls shows the gap between Clinton and Barack Obama narrowed by more than 10 points. Her biggest decline was seen among older voters.

The other shows Clinton's lead down approximately 9 points.

Obama's position in the two polls has not changed. John Edwards remains at about 15 percent in both.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/11/two_new_hampshire_polls_will_s.php

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ellacott Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
1. So who got those points?
If Obama and Edwards' numbers remained the same I wonder which second tier candidate got those points.
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villager Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. exactly - if the other two are unchanged, where'd the points go?
Edited on Fri Nov-09-07 12:43 PM by villager
n/t
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geek tragedy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 12:44 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Undecided, most likely. n/t
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tinrobot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 12:53 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. Undecided means they've decided against Clinton
But are undecided as to who else gets their vote.
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ellacott Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. That makes sense
Thanks :)
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MethuenProgressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #3
11. "Obama's position in the two polls has not changed."
Her points were frequent flier points and they expired?
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karynnj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 03:18 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. Or undecided
If this is true and not a statistical aberration, it might be that people are moving from HRC but not to anyone. I would take this as somewhat bad news for Obama and Edwards as well. If the people leaving HRC, had either of them as close second choices - they would leave HRC and go to them. Both have had tons of appearances and they are known in NH. What this suggests is that these people are not convinced that either of them are better alternatives.

This leads to three possible things:

1) They look at everyone else and return to HRC as the best of those possible. This is not all positive, unless they are won back through other events.

2) This may be an opportunity for one of the second tier. If this block of people all migrate to one of the second tier - he becomes competitive with Edwards. Then there is a top 4 - or one of the current top 3 fades.

3) These people lose interest and don't vote.
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ellacott Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. Thanks for the explanation
I hope they giveour other candidates some consideration. We have a very good slate of candidates.
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 04:34 PM
Response to Reply #1
12. Ask yourself who is running ADS? I can tell you, I get those ads where I live.
The one guy running a great ad is BILL RICHARDSON.

It's a REALLY good ad, too. He tells ya what he's for, what he wants to do, admits he ain't the purtiest, and looks right in the camera. Fantastic production values.

Could be Richardson. Dunno for sure, though.
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bunnies Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 04:51 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. I see tons of Edwards and Obama Ads on TV in Southern NH...
and get quite a bit of Richardson stuff in the mail. Maybe people are starting to finally look at the candidates. Good news.
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ellacott Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 04:59 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. I've heard them talk about his ads on Hardball
I didn't get to see when they played it. I'm going to have to check his website and see if it's up over there.
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 06:01 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. If he's standing next to a fence, that's the one they are running in heavy rotation.
Incredible production values, even on a so-so TV. On a good TV, it's a sock-knocker-offer. Really well done.
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
2. Beautiful.
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
5. We really need to cut down on polls
There are too many polls out there. Something needs to be done.
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Joe the Revelator Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. Yeah but this poll (and any other Iowa/NH poll) matters/
Big time.
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bunnies Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-09-07 04:54 PM
Response to Original message
14. I think name recognition thing might finally be wearing off.
Seems like the majority around here are just now starting to pay attention to the issues.
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