NH POLL: Hillary's lead slips to 11 points over Obama (36 /25), Edwards at 14.

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

Democratic Presidential Primary 2008

Hillary Clinton’s lead narrows among likely Democratic primary voters: Hillary Clinton’s once commanding lead over her Democratic rivals for the 2008 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary has been nearly halved. Last month, Clinton led her closest competitor, Barack Obama, by 21 percentage points. Now, the gap has narrowed to just 11 percentage points. 36% of likely Democratic presidential primary voters support Senator Clinton followed by 25% for Senator Obama. Former Senator John Edwards receives 14%. The remaining candidates, Governor Bill Richardson, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, Senator Joe Biden, Senator Chris Dodd, and former Senator Mike Gravel trail with single digit support.<*>

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What’s changed? Although Hillary Clinton has seen a decline in support among many groups within New Hampshire’s likely Democratic Primary electorate, one of the biggest changes has been among men forty-five years of age and older. Last month, she led both Barack Obama and John Edwards by 20 percentage points among this group. It is now a three-way contest. In a turnabout from last month’s poll, Obama now leads Clinton by 13 percentage points among first time voters. He trailed Clinton by 19 percentage points among first time voters in the earlier poll. Nearly one in five likely Democratic primary voters has never before voted in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary.

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http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/NH/NHPZ0711.htm

He has the infrastructure, the support, and the money to do it.

A jump from third or fourth over Hillary is definitely possible.

The whole landscape will change after she fails to win Iowa.

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It's only inevitable that huge leads disappear toward the end of cycles. It's just human nature. If anyone gives the Goddess of Peace some competition, I'm just glad it's Obama. Either one of them will trounce the repuke competition if they get the nod, unlike Edwards.

This should be one hell of a ride right down to the finish. Too bad Kucinich couldn't crack the top 3, although I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull ahead of Edwards and maybe even Richardson, too, before the dust settles.

DK all the way! :bounce: :hi:

It's kind of a crap shoot, unless the candidate is a neighbor (Kerry, Dukakis, Muskie e.g.)--those neighboring state candidates do well, generally. Gary Hart won NH, too, but Monkey Business did him in. Estes Kefauver won, not once, but twice! Didn't do him much good.

On the GOP side, some of the 'winners' include John McCain (in 00), Pat Buchanan in 96, and back in the mists of time, Henry Cabot Lodge and Harold Stassen, neither of whom got their party's noms.

Don't look at the NH primaries as a be-all or an end-all, where coming in first is the only prize, no matter who your candidate may be. President Clinton "won" by coming in second. If Richardson or Biden or Dodd managed that sort of "comeback kid" thing, with big numbers, the entire dynamic might change.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary

New Hampshire's status as the first-in-the-nation is somewhat controversial among Democrats because liberals consider the state not diverse and thus not representative of the country's voters. 2000 Census data show that the state is 96% white, versus 75% nationally. Politically however, the state does offer a wide sampling of different types of voters. Although it is a New England state, it is not as liberal as some of its neighbors. For example, according to one exit poll, of those who participated in the 2004 Democratic Primary, 4 in 10 voters were independents, and just over 50% said they considered themselves "liberal." Additionally, as of 2002, 25.6% of New Hampshire residents are registered Democrats and 36.7% are Republicans, with 37.7% of New Hampshire voters registered as "undeclared" independents. This plurality of independents is a major reason why New Hampshire is considered a swing state in general U.S. presidential elections.

Monkey Business did him in 88 before the campaign even got there...

from numerous other New Hampshire polls.

Poll source Date Highlights
Rasmussen November 5, 2007 Hillary Clinton 34%, Barack Obama 24%, John Edwards 15%, Bill Richardson 8%, Joe Biden 3%, Chris Dodd 3%, Dennis Kucinich 2%, Mike Gravel 1%

American Research Group October 26-October 29, 2007 Hillary Clinton 40%, Barack Obama 22%, John Edwards 10%, Bill Richardson 5%, Joe Biden 4%, Chris Dodd 3%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Gravel -%, Undecided 13%

Rasmussen October 23, 2007 Hillary Clinton 38%, Barack Obama 22%, John Edwards 14%, Bill Richardson 7%, Dennis Kucinich 7%, Joe Biden 2%, Chris Dodd 2%, Mike Gravel 2%, Undecided 6%

Marist College Institute for Public Opinion (Likely Voters) October 5-October 7, 2007 Hillary Clinton 41%, Barack Obama 20%, John Edwards 11%, Bill Richardson 8%, Joe Biden 3%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Chris Dodd 2%, Mike Gravel <1%, Undecided 12%

American Research Group September 26-September 29, 2007 Hillary Clinton 41%, Barack Obama 22%, John Edwards 10%, Bill Richardson 8%, Joe Biden 2%, Chris Dodd 2%, Dennis Kucinich 2%, Gravel -%, Undecided 12%

Zogby September 26-September 28, 2007 Hillary Clinton 38%, Barack Obama 23%, John Edwards 12%, Bill Richardson 8%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Joe Biden 2%, Chris Dodd 2%, Gravel <1%, Undecided 10%

Rasmussen Reports September 16, 2007 Hillary Clinton 40%, Barack Obama 17%, John Edwards 14%, Bill Richardson 11%, Joe Biden 5%, Some Other Candidates 14%

Franklin Pierce University / WBZ Poll September 11-September 14, 2007 Hillary Clinton 36%, Barack Obama 18%, John Edwards 12%, Bill Richardson 10%, Al Gore 5%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Joe Biden 3%, Chris Dodd 1%, Mike Gravel 1%, Undecided 11%

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg September 6-September 10, 2007 Hillary Clinton 35%, John Edwards 16%, Barack Obama 16%, Bill Richardson 8%, Dennis Kucinich 3%, Joe Biden 3%, Mike Gravel <0.05%, Chris Dodd <0.05%, Undecided 17%

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg (Democrats only) September 6-September 10, 2007 Hillary Clinton 40%, Barack Obama 17%, John Edwards 13%

American Research Group August 26-August 29, 2007 Hillary Clinton 37%, Barack Obama 17%, John Edwards 14%, Bill Richardson 7%, Joe Biden 4%, Chris Dodd 2%, Dennis Kucinich 2%, Gravel 1%,

Rasmussen Reports August 9, 2007 Hillary Clinton 37%, Barack Obama 22%, John Edwards 14%, Bill Richardson 9%, Dennis Kucinich 4%, Joe Biden 2%, Chris Dodd% -, Mike Gravel -, undecided 11%

American Research Group July 26-July 30, 2007 Hillary Clinton 31%, Barack Obama 31%, John Edwards 14%, Bill Richardson 7%, Biden 2%, Dodd 1%, Kucinich 1%, Clark -, Gravel -, undecided 13%

Hart-McLaughlin July 24-July 26, 2007 Hillary Clinton 36%, Barack Obama 19%, John Edwards 15%, Bill Richardson 12%, Biden 2%, Kucinich 2%, Dodd 1%, Gravel 0%, undecided 13%
CNN/WMUR/UNH