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Rasmussen- Iowa -Clinton 29% Edwards 25% Obama 24% Richardson 10%

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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 11:03 AM
Original message
Rasmussen- Iowa -Clinton 29% Edwards 25% Obama 24% Richardson 10%
Edited on Thu Nov-15-07 11:07 AM by DemocratSinceBirth
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/iowa/democratic_iowa_caucus
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CountAllVotes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 11:07 AM
Response to Original message
1. go EDWARDS!!!!!!!!!!!
:kick:
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geek tragedy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 11:07 AM
Response to Original message
2. Richardson at 10%, not 18%.
Trend line:

Clinton down 4, Edwards and Obama each up 3.
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SteppingRazor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 11:07 AM
Response to Original message
3. In a race this close, how do you think the 800-pound gorilla of polling will affect things?
That is, cell phone users with no land line. Those tend to be younger voters, and younger voters generally favor Edwards or Obama. Could that make this race even tighter than it looks?
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Ninga Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Yep.
Edited on Thu Nov-15-07 11:12 AM by Ninga
:patriot: edit because I can't spell

:hi:
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geek tragedy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 11:14 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Edwards and Clinton do about the same with younger voters.
Obama does best in that age group, by a healthy margin.

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2007/october/102907hawkeye-poll-powerpoint.pdf
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SteppingRazor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 11:17 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Kay, so is it possible that that might skew this somewhat?
Even if its just a couple percentage points, that puts Obama above Edwards, and possibly even up there with Hillary.

I've read a couple stories recently, interviews with pollsters, where they express some real wariness that cell-phone-only households are skewing their results. I'll be curious to see whether that pans out.
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geek tragedy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. There's been a lot of talk about that supposed bias.
It didn't pan out in 2004. I'm not going to place a great deal of weight on it until it's backed up by results.
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SteppingRazor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 11:28 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. Sure, but the number of cell-phone-only households only gets bigger every year.
Eventually, it's going to have an effect on the ability of polls to predict outcomes. It's just a question of when.
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Basileus Basileon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 12:15 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. It might not for quite a while.
There are a number of hard-to-reach demographics out there. In order to account for them, polling companies have a few tricks. For instance, there is no reason to believe that having a cell phone as your only phone actually changes your political beliefs. So you can look at the youth who do have land lines, and then extrapolate.
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 12:45 PM
Response to Reply #9
19. That is part of the reason why Zogby and other pollsters have embraced internet polling. It catches
a higher percentage of those who have abandoned their land-line telephones (of course, it brings its own selection issues which must be neutralized though sample selection).

If you see an internet based poll and a phone based poll with comparable numbers, that is some indication the selection bias in the polls has been properly corrected.
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Mythsaje Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 11:31 AM
Response to Reply #3
10. Good question...
I've been without a landline for years... I'm in Washington State, though. But I support Edwards. I'm also not a "young" voter.
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Basileus Basileon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #3
12. About as much as they did in 2006 and in 2004.
Or, that is to say, not at all.
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
8. I'll be Iowa on Saturday
Dubuque area and beyond... I'm going to try to get video of folks talking about their candidate... it's a horse race at this point. The debate tonight will certainly play into the latest opinions.
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #8
21. Dubuque is a good place to go for that - I think every candidate
has supporters in that county (and Dubuque Co. Dems are quite the activists :thumbsup:)
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 11:59 AM
Response to Original message
11. Wow its a literal dead heat amongst what Ras defines as certain caucus goers.
When only voters who are “certain” they will participate in the caucus are included in the totals, the race is a dead-heat: 26% for Clinton, 26% for Edwards, and 26% for Obama
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geek tragedy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. The big key is who will get unexpected
caucus-goers out.
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Basileus Basileon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. That would give me some hope for Obama or Edwards. nt
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geek tragedy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 12:23 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. I think Obama has much more appeal amongst
people who haven't traditionally been involved in the process. Now, can he actually get them off their asses and involved in the process? That is a question whose answer we won't know until the evening of 1/3/08.
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mmonk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 12:19 PM
Response to Original message
15. Who will the caucus goers trend to
that currently support candidates below 15%? That will determine the winner.
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #15
22. Please remember that non-viable candidates can group together
with other non-viable candidates OR create an Undecided group (Carter didn't win the 1976 caucuses, he came in second to Undecided). There is no guarantee that The Big Three will be the big three come January 4th.
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thereismore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 12:37 PM
Response to Original message
18. Obama and Edwards should form a ticket before primaries. Clinton would be toast. nt
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-15-07 03:32 PM
Response to Original message
20. Never thought I'd say this, but I'm starting to think Edwards will win Iowa
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