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I heard commentators suggest only 2 names can come out of Iowa, but

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hedgehog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-16-07 08:01 PM
Original message
I heard commentators suggest only 2 names can come out of Iowa, but
I don't think that's right:

Fromm Wikipedia:

Democratic Party process
The process used by the Democrats is more complicated. Each precinct divides its delegate seats among the candidates in proportion to caucus goers' votes.

Participants indicate their support for a particular candidate by standing in a designated area of the caucus site (forming a "preference group"). An area may also be designated for undecided participants. Then, for roughly 30 minutes, participants try to convince their neighbors to support their candidates. Each preference group might informally deputize a few members to recruit supporters from the other groups and, in particular, from among those undecided. Undecided participants might visit each preference group to ask its members about their candidate.

After 30 minutes, the electioneering is temporarily halted and the supporters for each candidate are counted. At this point, the caucus officials determine which candidates are "viable". Depending on the number of county delegates to be elected, the "viability threshold" can be anywhere from 15% to 25% of attendees. For a candidate to receive any delegates from a particular precinct, he or she must have the support of at least that many caucus participants in that precinct. Once viability is determined, participants have roughly another 30 minutes to "realign": the supporters of inviable candidates may find a viable candidate to support, join together with supporters of another inviable candidate to secure a delegate for one of the two, or choose to abstain. This "realignment" is a crucial distinction of caucuses in that (unlike a primary) being a voter's "second candidate of choice" can help you.

When the voting is closed, a final head count is conducted, and each precinct apportions delegates to the county convention.


If I read that right, in theory 6 candidates having at least 15% of the vote could emerge from Iowa. Given the current three way tie sown by the polling numbers, it would be possible for Clinton, Edwards and Obama to emerge with a third of the delegates each. Am I reading this correctly?
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-16-07 08:02 PM
Response to Original message
1. Yes, though that scenario is unlikely to happen.
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Debi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-16-07 08:08 PM
Response to Original message
2. Yes, but population and support aren't evenly distributed across the state
Edited on Fri Nov-16-07 08:08 PM by Debi
so a person who has urban support will have more supporters vying for a delegate slot whereas a person with rural support will need less supporters to equal one delegate. If support for a candidate is solely in the cities or college student populated areas then they may be lacking support in the country and someone else will receive those delegates.

That's why I don't see this scenario ever occurring.
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