Is the media narrative of Obama's surge overstated? Rasmussen has Obama dropping 9 points in 4 days.

Not quite the Clinton free fall we are being warned to expect. Obama has fallen from 26% to 17% in four days. This is the first Rasmussen poll to include only post-Nevada debate data.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

<edit>

Hillary Clinton still holds a commanding lead in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Clinton attracts 41% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters nationwide while Barack Obama earns the vote from 17%. John Edwards is the choice for 14%, Bill Richardson and Joe Biden are each supported by 5%, while no other Democratic candidate tops 3% (see recent daily numbers).

once you see someone become a "winner."

If someone other than Hillary wins Iowa, you'll see so many people jump off her bandwagon it'll look like a trampoline.

The timing of the primaries may stall any big momentum either way.

for better positions, so they're occuring closer to each other.

will be enough time for a "momentum" narrative to be built. In a 24-hour news cycle, 24 hours is a long time.

I'm just speculating about the changes in this primay.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3518385&mesg_id=3745545

It's beginning to look like a real drop.

The others can't. It's as simple as that.

The "inevitability" talking point is pretty much the only reason why she's getting so much support.

If there's even a hint that she's not the inevitable nominee, her campaign will sink faster than the Titanic.

for her to drop out whether she loses Iowa and New Hamshire both, which I don't think she will. It won't happen.

There are 20 states that vote on that day, and unlike in the past its less than a month from Iowa/NH - and most importantly CA votes then:


Alabama 02/05/2008
Alaska 02/05/2008
Arizona 02/05/2008
Arkansas 02/05/2008
California 02/05/2008
Colorado 02/05/2008
Connecticut 02/05/2008
Delaware 02/05/2008
District of Columbia 02/12/2008
Florida 01/29/2008
Georgia 02/05/2008
Hawaii 02/19/2008
Idaho 02/05/2008
Illinois 02/05/2008
Indiana 05/06/2008
Iowa 01/14/2008
Kansas 02/09/2008
Kentucky 05/20/2008
Louisiana 02/09/2008
Maine 02/10/2008
Maryland 02/12/2008
Massachusetts 03/04/2008
Michigan 01/15/2008
Minnesota 02/05/2008
Mississippi 03/11/2008
Missouri 02/05/2008
Montana 06/03/2008
Nebraska 05/13/2008
Nevada 01/19/2008
New Hampshire TBD (01/08/2008)
New Jersey 02/05/2008
New Mexico 02/05/2008
New York 02/05/2008
North Carolina 05/06/2008
North Dakota 02/05/2008
Ohio 03/04/2008
Oklahoma 02/05/2008
Oregon 05/20/2008
Pennsylvania 04/22/2008
Rhode Island 03/04/2008
South Carolina 01/29/2008
South Dakota 06/03/2008
Tennessee 02/05/2008
Texas 03/04/2008
Utah 02/05/2008
Vermont 03/04/2008
Virginia 02/12/2008
Washington 02/19/2008
West Virginia 05/13/2008
Wisconsin 02/19/2008
Wyoming 03/08/2008

trying to promote a horserace. If you believe that overnight
HRC fell and Obama surged---yep, there is this bridge for sale.

Polls change when something happens ---- nothing has happened/

Iowa Polls are hard to get as well as interpret. People change
their minds and do not really commit until the last couple of
weeks. People have been getting ready for Thanksgiving not
frantically watch the races at this time.

zif the truth be known, it is still a three-way tie. I put my
money here.

The media needs a horserace to ensure ratings.

Rasmussen prints daily tracking polls which are more current, but are also more volatile...

Many of the others were started 5 or 10 days ago...

So it could be Rasmussen has hinted at a bounce back for Hillary from the last debate, or it is just normal tracking poll volatility...

I mean while it was nice to see Obama up, it's not like I'm soooo stuck on one poll. Sometimes you gotta realize polls are only a snap shot of that time, and the only "poll" that matters is on the Election day. :)

People should stop obsessing over the polls in general.

Polls may be useful snapshots of a general direction.

But the obsession with polls is part of what is destroying the electoral process.

The pundits use it to create a phony narrative, which thus convinces the public, which follows the bandwagon effect.

I'd say this no matter who was ahead and behind this week.

...he doesn't have one in the Dem race. He is a Republican but I don't think he would take a chance fiddling with his polling technique to push one Dem candidate or another.

I like his daily tracking poll but I am also a realist and I know I have to compare his numbers with others - preferably taken within the same date inclusions.