The real story in Iowa is not the Obama Surge

It really is that Hillary is not closing the deal.


THe next poll is going to be very telling..but look at the last four

Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson Biden Total/Uncommitted or other
ABC/Wash Post 11/14 - 11/18 500 LV 26 30 22 11 4 93/7
Research 2000 11/12 - 11/14 400 LV 27 25 21 10 4 87/13
American Res. Group 11/10 - 11/14 600 LV 27 21 20 12 5 85/15
Rasmussen 11/12 - 11/12 1239 LV 29 24 25 10 3 91/9


Clinton has not budged 29 27 27 26
Edwards has gone down 25 27 21 22
Richardson has not budged 10 12 10 11
Biden has not budged 3 5 4 4

Undecideds have dropped 9 15 13 7

Obama has moved forward 24 27 25 30


THe next poll is the real test.


But people do not break late for the incumbent nor do they break late for the instituitonal candidate. Hillary has hit a ceiling.....4 debates left she is going to have to take Obama straight on to knock him down.....But Edwards is going to continue to attack her. Hard to play offense and defense at the the same time.....there is blood in the water.

Interesting. I'm also interested in seeing the next month's numbers.

It is not like a primary. It is a kabuki dance, and not a very graceful one