New Iowa Poll Via MyDD -Obama -29% Clinton 29% Edwards 23%

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/11/27/112132/39


No comment... Just reposted what I saw...

Is Edwards done? :shrug:

EDIT: I see this is a Strategic Vision poll. For whatever it's worth...this is a Repug polling firm.

I do know if he doesn't win IA he's done... It's his Stalingrad...

The only question is whether it becomes official on January 4 or January 9.

According to the poll:

"On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are tied at 29%, and Edwards is at 23% -- needless to say, the three remain within the margin of error."

Is Hillary done? Is Obama done? Those questions make just as much sense.

If he doesn't win or come close to the winner, it's all over for him. The same does not hold true for the other 2.

Even Michelle Obama acknowledges this.

The race is over if Hillary wins Iowa because if she win Iowa, she's likely run the table up to Uber-Tuesday and the candidate with momentum going into Uber-Tuesday will close the deal on that day (if the deal hasn't been closed before then).

Iowa ends up Edwards, Obama, then Hillary and for New Hampshire ends up Obama, Edwards, then Hillary so we can ultimately have a two way race between Obama and Edwards so I can be happy with either candidate winning the nomination.

Clinton and Obama will both come out of Iowa as viable candidates, regardless of what happens. Edwards has to make a strong 2nd place, or he's done.

All I'm asking is where does Obama turn back Hillary if not in Iowa where he is ahead of her if you add first choice preferences plus add in a factor for second choice preferences?

I'm not saying Obama has to win Iowa, but if he doesn't finish ahead of Hillary in Iowa (i.e. -- if he comes in 3rd behind Edwards and Hillary or 2nd behind Hillary), he'll go into New Hampshire with downward momentum, and she'll go into New Hampshire with upward momentum.

Same is true of Edwards.

for either Obama or Hillary if they come in second. If one of them comes in third, they are in big trouble.

She's been the annointed one for a while now, and a second place finish will be portrayed as a major setback for her. Obama's the underdog, so a second place finish is more expected. It won't be seen as a defeat, just a lack of victory.

Moving forward to New Hampshire, I can't find the latest poll results, but I could see a lot of voters abandoning the second tier of candidates and getting behind the top four (or three, or two) out of Iowa as a pragmatic move. If 10% or so of voters play musical chairs, that could turn the race into more of a tossup. The latest poll I could find from earlier in the month said Hillary was polling at 43%, which is a big percent, yes, but that means that 57% of voters aren't so sure about her.

But yeah, if either Clinton or Obama come in third in Iowa, that's a problem.

I must confess just a few weeks ago I thought Edwrads was positioning himself well to become the main challenger, and Obama was not showing enough fight to maintain that position. Luckily for Obama, he became much more willing to go toe to toe and I think that has helped close the door I saw opening. Hey no skin off my nose being wrong - I have no problem with Obama (or Edwards or Clinton).

I DO think it's about time to shake this thing out a bit. Let the no hopers if not drop out at least resign themselves to being irrelevant gadflies. The longer we go with more possibilities after the first few primaries the more we waste time and resources attacking each other. I'm not saying Dodd and Dennis et al should drop out now - although frankly I think it would save them oney and effort for no return if they did - but I hope they don't hang on too long. Luckily after Feb 5th it should be clear enough who's who to make that moot.

He just about lives in Iowa.

The bigger surprise to me, though, is South Carolina. I just can't understand what's happening there with him.

People aren't buying the 'new' Edwards.

only it's do or die for Edwards, not so much for either Clinton or Obama.

CNN

Yet I'd modify that to leave room for hope on Obama's behalf if Edwards wins Iowa so long as Obama finishes ahead of Hillary.

The truth is that the race is likely over for everyone if Hillary wins Iowa because if Hillary can hold off the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party in Iowa, she's likely to win in New Hampshire and Nevada, too, and if she wins the first three contests, there is nothing to indicate that South Carolina would turn it around.

You are kidding yourself if you doubt that any candidate can survive coming in behind Hillary in Iowa because any tendency for the ABC crowd to consolidate behind a challenger will be for the challenger who finishes ahead of her, not the challenger who finishes behind her.

I'd be perfectly happy with either Edwards or Obama over Hillary. It is slightly easier for me to see Edwards as the more likely challenger to knock Hillary down (mainly because of the manner in which the Iowa caucus format seems to favor Edwards and disfavor Obama), but I'd be very glad if Obama runs the table.

My best case scenario would be for Iowa to finish Edwards, Obama, then Hillary and for New Hampshire to finish (based on the momentum gained and lost in Iowa) Obama, Edwards, then Hillary. I would love to see a two way race between Obama and Edwards where I'd be ecstatic with either candidate winning.

I haven't seen the Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich numbers.

numbers within the margin of error?

in Obama's and Edwards' numbers from the previous poll conducted by the same pollster using the same methods.

That's nice, but, Edwards is barely mentioned and he is usually within the margin of error. The media drives me crazy. They are running this election, as usual. When reporting on the repubs they dip down into the crowd with the lower numbers, what a shock. Look what they have done for Huckabee.

Since I am for Biden it is especially frustrating. His numbers barely move. Iowa will once again set the pace for the rest of the voting. It looks like Edwards has just as much chance to run away with Iowa as Obama and Hillary. Bill and Opra are there for intertainment purposes. Iowans seem to go for who the candidate is, not the star power behind them since they get to meet the candidate one on one. Too bad the rest of us can't get in on these meet and greets.

Bottom line, I fear, is that the media picks our candidate.

experience but might take a look.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/iowa.html

Edwards is the only one who absolutely can't lose Iowa IMO.