If Hucksterbee wins Iowa, watch for McCain to move up in NH

Each of the Republic candidates has such serious flaws, that the Republic voters may well fall back on the old standby - John McCain.

In New Hampshire, McCain is currently running a strong third, right behind Rudy.

The stories about Giuliani's sexcapades on the public dole are giving many Republic voters second thoughts about his strength and vulnerabilities in the general election.

New Englanders, even Republic ones, are not going to vote for a Southern Baptist snake oil salesman hayseed like Hucksterbee. McCain has historically been popular in NH, he won the state in '00, and the independents there could conceivably give him a boost.

Romney is only strong there, because of his status as favorite son from next door Massachusetts. A loss in Iowa, or a virtual tie with Hucksterbee, would severly dent flip flop Mitt's momentum and open up a door of opportunity for McCain.

A McCain win or strong second place in NH sets up a showdown between McCain and Giuliani and Thompson in South Carolina. Although Rudy is currently polling surprisingly well in SC, a strong McCain showing in NH could propel him in the state and on February 5 when the race goes national.

It is still a long shot, but don't count John McCain out. He could still win this thing by essentially being the last man standing.




edit: fixed links

Also, I think there is more recent polling in SC which shows Giuliani in a free fall.

At least McCain need not lose any sleep over Hollywood Thompson because Hollywood's polling a distant 6th in New Hampshire.

up in the current poll results. I used to live in SC, and they don't refer to that State as being in the heart of the Bible Belt for nothinhg ya know! The bible thumpers there were already having trouble with Rudy's 3 marriages, and the emphasis on his "visits to the Hamptons" is moving his phylandering to the top of the list. Add the misue of funds to that, and I'd be SHOCKED if Rudy even finishes in the top 3 in SC.

He's pretty far ahead. Iowa will be seen as an evangelical aberration (happened before), Mittens will still win NH (though not by as big a margin as he otherwise would have), and will be in a position to take SC, where he's doing pretty well. After that, the big states are anyone's guess, if Rudy doesn't start turning it around.

Romney still has the strongest field team on the ground in Iowa. Poll numbers mean nothing in a caucus state. Don't you think Huckabee's rise in the polls might actually help Romney by allowing him to appear as an "upset" winner in Iowa when he does win Iowa?

lowered, he certainly would be very strong going into NH. Hucky BETTER win Iowa now, or he's done. A few weeks ago, pundits were saying a strong second in IA would be like a win for Huckster--now he's the front-runner in some polls, so second ain't gonna cut it anymore. He may have peaked too soon, and Mittens is going to pull out the dirt on him from now until January.

but that's why his win will not mean much. The press is going to be looking at who takes second place in NH. If a different candidate wins IA, NH and SC, then that benefits Giuliani, McCain and Thompson and takes some steam out of the Mitt strategy.

considered the winner, although Romney won. And if it's close in NH, and Romney still wins, the second-place finisher will probably be considered the winner too. It's a good thing I think he's a slimy crapweasel, or I'd almost feel sorry for him for getting a consistent raw deal--the media really seems to hate him.

I dislike him more than any of the other Repubs. He's totally and completely dishonest. And his religion will not get a pass from the Southern baptists, which is not a good thing, but, hey it's politics. So, in a way, I hope he gets their nod, because I think he's easy to beat. But I also would like to see him go down in flames in the primaries, because he's such an ass.

he hides it well, but he's the sort that would turn nasty and psycho on a dime. On one hand, I think he's very beatable, on the other, I don't want to even allow him to come that close to the WH. Ick.

on edit--Oops, you were talking about Romney, and I was describing Huckabee! Oh well, they're both awful. Romney is just a shape-shifting, calculating empty-suit weasel, but Huck is more evil to me.

of the Union Leader. I don't know how much a difference that makes, though.

McCain retains the affection of many Republicans and Independents in NH from 2000, when he whipped Dubya there and whipped him good.

What about Ron Paul? Does he cut into McCain's windfall if Rudy's numbers slide? Or will any of the Dole voters (God forgive their wretched souls) throw in for Romney, or someone else?

I don't remember a GOP race in this much flux.

Paul is much of a factor, OC. His supporters are enthusiastic and loud, but small in numbers - he doesn't crack double digits in any poll I've seen. That said, he could pull some independents in NH, which would help Mitt and hurt McCain and Giuliani.

It must be a real iffy job being a Republican consultant this time around with the electorate already set-in fairly well against all the GOP candidates.

If Romney can fend off Huckabee, he appears to have some serious dollars to spend on the rest of the campaign.

But Huckabee is roaring into a tie with Willard in Iowa.

I'm flat-out clueless as to how it's going to play out.

It spooks me out everytime I see him on TV. I can not
tell which eye is looking at the me (thru the camera)

The Rethugs are up for a protest vote.

Most are resigned to losing in 08, so they will vote their hearts, not their minds.

Thats the only reason that Huckabee is in this thing.

Listen to me people. I'm always right about these things.

and he fits your perfect description of "voting with their hearts, not their minds."