50+% handcount of votes (audit) in Venezuela! LIVE radio from Venezuela (in Eng.)

Venezuela uses electronic voting, but it is an OPEN SOURCE CODE system--anyone may review the code by which the votes are tabulated--and they handcount a whopping 55% of the vote, as a check on machine fraud. (Know how much WE handcount in our corporate-controlled "trade secret" code system?*)

I knew this from reading www.venezualanalysis.com. But Radio Venezuela En Vivo (in English) just reported it again, saying that more than 50% of the vote would be automatically audited.

Radio Venezuela En Vivo
http://radiovenezuelaenvivo.blogspot.com/

I used this connection
http://190.77.116.122:8000/listen.pls

This independent radio station, which is providing extensive news reports, interviews, background and analysis throughout today and tonight, as Venezuelans vote on the constitutional amendments proposed by the Chavez government and the National Assembly (Sun Dec 2), is also providing extensive English programming. You may tune in and hear Spanish or French, but it soon switches to English translation or English speakers.

The first url above has print updates and important notes. It provides 4 servers to choose from. (They had tech probs yesterday--which is why I'm using the second url.) The technology is very good today, and sound is very clear.

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*Many states in the U.S. do ZERO percent audit, and even the best of states do only 1%--completely inadequate in our highly non-transparent vote counting system, which uses 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY programming code, owned and controlled by rightwing Bushite corporations (fast-tracked across the country during the 2002 to 2004 period). These voting machines are extremely insecure and insider riggable. I think almost all of our worst current problems--heinous, unjust war, tens of thousands of innocents slain, torture of prisoners, $10 trillion deficit, massive domestic spying, shredding of our Constitution, treason, fascist president and vice president, deaf Congress, credit card usury, gas price gouging, jobs bleeding out of the country, etc.--are directly attributable to the hard-to-detect (and in some cases virtually undetectable, except with inferential evidence) election fraud committed with this non-transparent, corporate-controlled system.

"Observers from 39 Countries to Guarantee Clean Referendum Vote
November 30th 2007, by ABN

"Caracas, 29 Nov. ABN.- The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that observers from 39 countries will guarantee a clean voting process during the referendum for constitutional reform to be held this Sunday, December 2nd.

"On Thursday, the CNE distributed the International Accompaniment Program for the Referendum on Constitutional Reform.

"Included in the list of observers are representatives of Antigua and Barbuda, Germany, Argentina, Belgium, Benin, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, Ecuador, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Spain, United States, Philippines, Finland, France, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Guyana, Holland, Honduras, England, Italy, Mali, Namibia, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Dominican Republic, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Senegal, Switzerland, Surinam and Uruguay.

"Among these representatives are electoral officials, writers, journalists, ministers, university educators, investigators, parliamentarians and representatives of various social organizations.

"CNE Director Germán Yépez said that he expects between 100 and 120 international observers from American electoral entities as well as American and European electoral systems experts.

"He explained that this time OAS and EU missions will not participate since the referendum preparation period was too short. The two organizations need five to six months to organize their activities.*

"Regarding national observation, Yépez emphasized that three NGO’s were authorized: Asamblea de Educación (Education Assembly), Ojo Electoral (Electoral Watch) and Universitarios por la Equidad (University Students for Equity), each of which can accredit around 500 observers.

"In closing he announced that Electoral Power representatives would meet with international observers Friday at 9:30 am in the Alba Caracas hotel to discuss the electoral process.

Translated by Dawn Gable"

http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/newsbrief/2927

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This is the item that the NYT used for disinformation purposes. They said that the Chavez gov't had opened itself to charges of fraud by not inviting the OAS and EU, which wasn't true, on its face. They were of course invited, but couldn't participate because the scheduling of the election was dependent on a vote of the National Assembly, a factor outside of the control of the Venezuelan election commission, and the lead time was too short.

And this is the ONLY item that the NYT mentioned. They didn't mention the 39 countries, and thousands of observers including many experienced election monitoring groups and experts. The war profiteering corporate news monopoly idea, exemplified here by the NYT, was to provide a "talking point" in case "Yes" wins (pro-Chavez vote), and possibly to aid a nefarious scheme by the Bush-USAID-NED, Bush-purged CIA, U.S. Embassy in Venezuela and the rightwing elite to cry "fraud" after the vote, and disrupt the country.

The Chavez government has always welcomed international election observers. To imply that they do not is a lie--and to omit evidence of it is a dirty stinking lie. And this is a newspaper and a U.S. corporate news establishment that has been egregiously derelict in warning U.S. voters about the corporate "trade secret" vote counting coup in our own system. Disgusting, I say.

NYT article and discussion (see my post #53)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3083560#3084321

:kick:

listening now. Talking about the voting today and what they saw
Asking where the youth was.
(I'm not sure what part of Venezuela they were talking about)

:kick:

hour. They mentioned low voter turnout, an opposition plan to all come out and vote in the late hours, for the TV cameras (to create the appearance of a surge--which could be part of a destabilization strategy), disappointment in low turnout, but also one reporter went to a cafe or something, and everybody there had the purple finger and were touting it. These reporters had talked to generally pro-Chavez voters who didn't like the current proposed reforms. Another concern of the opposition was an early opposition plan to boycott the vote, later reversed, but which is cutting into turnout.

I think opposition strategy suffers from confusion and contradictions because it is directed by the White House. They have often tripped over their own feet--with boycott strategies, crying "wolf" (election fraud) too often, supporting disgraceful coups and destabilization actions, then trying to look legit again, when they do decide to participate. You can feel a George Bush, or should I say, Donald Rumsfeld shadow over all this.

I guess the polls are closed except for the people still in line.

Nice music. Great radio, which I see is also linked from indymedia venezuela's front page, described as made by activists and by community and alternative media.

... and we are indeed on the cutting edge of election fraud. Feh.

Thanks for posting.

are up to, with their directed press (war profiteering corporate news monopolies), in particular in South America.

So here's a theory. Recently (a few days ago), the NYT published a fawning article on General Baduel, once a friend of Chavez, who called the reforms a "coup" (Chavez shot back, calling Baduel a "traitor," for pretending to support Chavez but opposing the reforms). Baduel is painted as an urbane, quiet, likeable fellow--polished, the way the NYT likes their politicians--and clearly was grooming him for something.

The problem for the rightwing elite in Venezuela is that their actions have been so discreditable. They really are a selfish, stupid, greedy, pampered elite, used to ruling by fiat. So there have been efforts to change their image--including using students from elite Catholic schools as the fronts for the opposition.

So, what if the rumors that have been flying around before this election--some with a lot of substance to them--of planned Bushite/rightwing violence and coup, items like the U.S. Embassy leaked document (laying out coup plans), and Rumsfeld's op-ed in WaPo (virtually declaring war on Venezuela), etc., etc.--have been a reverse psychology psy-ops campaign to rehabilitate the Venezuelan rightwing, by their NOT attempting another coup, by the vote going smoothly, building up credibility, using more subtle destabilization techniques over the next few years (things like creating food shortages--similar to the oil corps anti-Carter strategy in the 1970s; and possibly trouble with Colombia paramilitaries on the border) and then running Baduel in 2012 (if "Yes" wins) against Chavez, as the "centrist" answer to Venezuelan's (contrived) "problems"?

To "earn" this position, Baduel had to issue an anti-Chavez statement (echoing the corporate media), and, well, we don't know what else he has to do, or what support was promised to him.

It's a thought. It's not much like Bushite strategy, which tends to be crude and brutal. But Venezuelans have proven resistant to crude tactics. This may be the plan--or was/is the backup plan. If their intense disinformation campaign on the reforms doesn't work, and "Yes" wins, they do need a backup plan, cuz they will be looking at intense and vibrant socialism in Venezuela, and they already have a host of socialist governments and movements/projects in the region.

About the "flight" from Venezuelan bonds and the "concern" about the currency losing it's value if the Yes vote wins. It sounds like they are threatening to cause finacial instability by pulling money out of the country by causing a "run on the bank" Which I think is the real issue. Control of the Central Bank. Washington has to hate that.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aVKNJK43MiOo&refer=news

Venezuela Bonds Tumble as Chavez Changes Constitution (Update4)

By Lester Pimentel

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's bid to amend the constitution is turning the country's bonds into the world's worst-performing debt even as oil revenue rises to a record.

The government's 9 1/4 percent dollar bonds due in 2027 tumbled 22 percent this year, with almost half the losses coming this month before a Dec. 2 referendum on the proposed changes. Chavez wants to end presidential term limits and make it easier to seize private property.

``When you're transforming the political landscape into an effective dictatorship, that makes people nervous,'' said Jonathan Binder, who oversees $1.3 billion of emerging-market assets at INTL Consilium LLC in Fort Lauderdale, Florida and sold all his Venezuelan bonds. ``We're completely out. It's too unpredictable.''

While oil exports fueled annual economic growth of more than 8 percent over the past four years, the South American country has a credit rating below investment grade. Chavez, 53, is eroding investor confidence by molding the economy to what he calls ``21st-century socialism.''

He seized control of oil joint ventures, prompting Exxon Mobil Corp. and ConocoPhillips to pull out of the country, and nationalized electric and telephone utilities. He shut the country's biggest television network and replaced it with TVes, one of three state-run stations he created.

`One Man's Decisions'

``The country is mainly reliant on one man's decisions,'' said Tomasz Stadnik, who manages $3.1 billion of emerging-market debt at ABN Amro Asset Management Services in London. ``The policies aren't market-friendly.''

Growth has overwhelmed government price controls designed to hold down inflation. Consumer prices rose 16 percent in the 12 months through October, the fastest pace in Latin America, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Chavez wants to take control of the central bank and shorten the workday to six hours from eight as part of the 69 constitutional changes he proposed. The National Assembly, dominated by his ruling coalition, approved the measures on Nov. 2, paving the way for the referendum.

Venezuela's 9 1/4 percent bonds due in 2027 have declined 28 cents this year to 98.9 cents on the dollar, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The yield increased 2.57 percentage points to 9.37 percent. The rise was exacerbated by investor flight from all except the safest assets in August as losses from securities linked to subprime mortgages contaminated credit markets.

AAA Rating

Venezuelan bonds yield 5.25 percentage points more than Treasuries of similar maturity, up from 1.82 percentage points at the start of the year, according to JPMorgan's benchmark index. Only Ecuador, whose president has threatened to default, has a wider spread, 6.14 percentage points, among countries in the index.

The only other time Venezuela's bonds and oil prices moved in different directions was in 2000, when a 39 percent drop in the Nasdaq Composite Index cut into demand for higher-yielding, emerging-market assets. That year, oil rose 4.7 percent while the bonds fell 2.3 percent.

Oil has increased 46 percent in 2007. Petroleum accounts for almost 90 percent of Venezuela's exports. The nation is the world's fifth-largest crude producer, according to data compiled by London-based BP Plc.

Venezuelan bonds are rated BB-, three levels below investment grade. The last time oil had a similar rally, in the 1970s, the country's debt was rated AAA.

``A country with the oil wealth of Venezuela should be investment grade,'' said Alberto Ramos, a Latin America economist in New York at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

`Rock Solid'

Crude climbed to a record $99.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Nov. 21, more than triple the $31.61 price four years earlier.

The government gets more than half its revenue from oil sales. Debt equals 22.4 percent of the country's gross domestic product, below the 33.9 percent average for developing nations, according to ING Bank NV.

``The fundamentals are rock solid,'' said Gianfranco Bertozzi, a Latin America economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York. ``We still like it as a credit.''

Finance Minister Rodrigo Cabezas, speaking in an interview today on state-run Venezolana de Television, said the government will keep paying its debts after the referendum.

Students have marched daily against the constitutional changes, staging protests from Merida in the Andes Mountains to Barcelona along Venezuela's Caribbean coast.

`Little Rich Kids'

Chavez called the students ``spoiled little rich kids'' in a Nov. 4 speech. The next day former defense minister Raul Isaias Baduel said the constitutional overhaul amounted to a ``coup,'' sparking the biggest decline in the bonds in three months. Chavez called Baduel, who helped put him back in power during a 2002 coup attempt, a ``traitor.''

Merrill Lynch & Co. recommended on Nov. 6 that investors reduce their Venezuelan bond holdings, saying Baduel's opposition increased the chance of ``violent confrontations.''

``What we are seeing is the last vestige of electoral democracy in Venezuela,'' said Michael Coppedge, a political science professor at Notre Dame University in South Bend, Indiana. ``It's going to be more authoritarian after the referendum. There won't be truly democratic elections.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Lester Pimentel in New York at lpimentel1@bloomberg.net
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aVKNJK43MiOo&refer=news

:shrug:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3783466

She's been talking to election observers, who are awestruck by the transparency of Venezuela's system.

There is no official number yet. And I guess a lot of reporting is anecdotal at this point. The Venezuelan election commission keeps a tight lid on election numbers until they are sure of them--a good election practice. And I believe that they enforce it on election observer groups as well, so if they are doing exit polling, they cannot announce results before the official results. Unlike here, they don't permit corporate news and other interested parties to blazen false winners, manipulate perceptions, fix results, falsify exit polls, etc. etc., that we see in our elections.

My guess is that it is a big turnout, and "Yes" will win with about 55% of the vote. Chavez has a 72% approval rating, and won the last presidential election (Dec 06) with 63% of the vote. Some pro-Chavez groups don't like the reforms. This will cut into the "Yes" votes, but the opposition's early edict to their voters to boycott the vote is once again shooting them in the foot. They changed that message, but I think it hurt turnout for them. Radio Venezuela En Vivo reported low turnout in Altamira (an opposition stronghold). Also, the opposition is the minority, and a small one at that. Unless there was a huge defection of Chavez supporters, they cannot win this. There were some defections, but nothing that big that I've seen any evidence for. It will be a win for "Yes," but not as big as Chavez presidential elections (nor Chavista National Assembly elections).

I heard a Radio Venezuela reporter (might have been Eva Gollinger) say it would be comparable to Chavez presidential elections (60% range).

manipulate perceptions, fix results, falsify exit polls, etc. etc.

Right.

What you say sounds right, from everything I've been hearing in Spanish up to very recently, when suddenly all together the "international newswires" were running the "latest polls" story suggesting a close result - like 50%-50%.

I wondered if that would be part of the psyops.

media campaign to (falsely) say that it will be close is prelim to riots, destabilization and a coup attempt. There is all kinds of evidence that this is the plan. Pre-election polls are very unreliable, because often they are directly Bush Junta funded, through USAID-NED, or global corporate predator-controlled. The rightwing IN FACT had such plan for the presidential election in Dec 06, with a Penn and Schoen (Wash DC pr firm) false poll as the trigger. The plot got exposed and the opposition candidate felt obliged to publicly disavow it.

The Bush/corporate/fascist strategy could be short term, could be longer term, or could be short term with a long term backup plan. I'm not sure. Did you see Rumsfeld's op-ed yesterday, virtually declaring war on Venezuela? Makes you worried that they're really going to do it, short term or long term--that is, U.S. military in support of a rightwing coup. But THIS could be psyops, to scare Venezuelan voters, or to prep for long term war-like economic moves, destabilization, and grooming Gen. Baduel to run in 2012 (as the "centrist" answer to created "problems").

... and he goes on

That is an awfully low bar to hurdle to change a government's fundamental rules. A popular vote requirement should be higher even than the requirements that might be set out for other sources of amendment (like ratification by 38 states here in the U.S.- that's 3/4 of the States).

IMO, to change the Constitution by popular vote, that vote should be around 85-90%, or you're just going to have tyranny by the majority over the minority.

passed out by a known top operative of the rightwing opposition (didn't catch his name) in a Caracas neighborhood, and opposition already screaming "Fraud!" in one precinct over a few machine breakdowns (law says voters in line MUST be permitted to vote, even with delays past closing time). Machine breakdown seems to be very minimal over all. Also, 45 people detained for damaging fingerprint ID machines by scratching them with a needle (don't know which side, if either). Finally, two U.S. State Department employees carrying clipboards were identified at one polling place. These things were reported by Megan High (sp?). She seemed concerned that the above incidents would be used to call the election into question.

Re: Embassy clipboard guys. It is illegal to release exit polling info in Venezuela before the first official results are released. But Venezuela has no control over global corporate predator news monopolies, who could be planning to feed false polling info to news services, to be broadcast around the world, as a preliminary to a coup attempt. This info might fool people and government leaders around the world, and could also be fed back into Venezuela, to foment riots, or be used in the subsequent days to foment riots and destabilization.

Note: All of the above reports unconfirmed.

Another unconfirmed report: Opposition governor of Sucre tried to storm the local election center with a mob, to hold a press conference about "Fraud!," but was turned back to tupemeros (local police?).

NO OFFICIAL REPORT YET but current rumor (widespread) that 'Yes' has won (pro-Chavez vote).

That would likely favor "Yes" (pro-Chavez). Official election results will be in about an hour. 5pm Calif time.

NOT to report exit polls before the official result is announced. Reuters is reporting a "Yes" win by a 7-8% margin, on the basis of exit polls. There may also have been a leak from the official elections body (with 70% of the vote counted so far, and the 55% audit yet to come).

1. I don't trust Reuters (and I think their middle finger to Venezuelan law is disgusting).

2. Exit polls in Venezuela--and all pre-election polls--are notoriously unreliable, because they are often funded by the Bush State Department, and have been used by the rightwing to foment coups, riots, killings and destabilization.

3. Great if the amendments won. I support the reforms. But I'm not counting on it. What if it's REVERSED in the actual count (which IS very reliable), and THAT is the plan--to spark a civil war in Venezuela? I'll believe when it's official.

And this goes under the headline: "Uncertainty in Venezuela over referendum result."

and has conceded.

As Greg Wilpert said, it's better that it's a slim margin loss, than if it were a slim margin win. The latter would put Venezuelan democracy and the Chavez government in great peril, with the likes of Donald Rumsfeld baring their talons. If the numbers had been reversed, would the rightwing coupsters have graciously conceded, as Chavez did? (I heard him on Radio Venezuela En Vivo--at www.venezuelanalysis.com.) No, they would not have, and we might be looking at the U.S. military in Venezuela in support of a coup tomorrow morning.

9 years of straight wins. 1 loss. The Chavistas will regroup, and go on to more victories.

Here's a guy we call a dictator doing what don't do - audit elections. Hell, in this country, you can't even get a recount in most states unless the difference is less than 1%. Where you can pay to get them, they jack the price up so high, you can't afford it. But there, they recount 50% by hand.

This plus the Latin American development bank Chavez is starting just as Latin America totally deserts the World Bank should tell you where we're at overseas and domestically.

Great post!