According to James Petras, who wrote about the CIA destabilization memo, the memo acknowledges that they've managed to sway public opinion by 6 percentage points, far more than enough to alter the outcome of the election.
-personman
http://www.democracynow.org/2007/11/30/tens_of_thousands_protest_chavez_proposalsJames Petras: Now, what the memo talks about essentially is, first of all, the effectiveness of their campaign against the constitutional amendments, and it concedes that the amendment will be approved, but it does mention the fact that they’ve reduced the margin of victory by six percentage points. The second part is more interesting. It actually mentions the fact that the US strategy is what they call a “pincer operation.” That’s the name of the document itself. It’s—“pincer” is “tenaza,” and it’s, first of all, to try to undermine the electoral process, the vote itself, and then secondly, once the vote goes through, if they are not able to stop the vote, is to engage in a massive campaign calling fraud and rejecting the outcome that comes from the election. So, on one hand, they’re calling a no vote, and on the other hand, they’re denouncing the outcome if they lose.