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Can Oprah help get Obama into the White House?

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mtnsnake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 12:24 PM
Original message
Can Oprah help get Obama into the White House?
Edited on Fri Dec-07-07 12:27 PM by mtnsnake
The media is asking this question more and more lately.

Deep inside, Hillary has to be hurting over this. Just a few years ago there was some speculation that she might consider Oprah for a VP choice if she ran, crazy as it sounds and totally unsubstantiated, of course. If you google hillary oprah vp, you'll see the speculation about that. At any rate, it seemed that there was kind of a mutual admiration between the two of them at the time.

It is said that the strongest part of Oprah's following is women over the age of 55.

It is also said that the strongest part of Hillary's following is women over the age of 55.

I do think Oprah's influence in the Primaries could very well be enough of an asset to unseat Hillary by taking just a big enough percentage of that "women over the age of 55" group away from Hillary and handing them to Obama. We might be already seeing the affects of her phenomenon in the national polls. The Primaries are being viewed as, "Who will be the one to beat Hillary?...Obama or Edwards?"...so I would imagine that this could eventually hurt Edwards, too, since all along John Edwards has been far more planning on himself being the one to beat her, not Obama, and he was doing pretty well at it, too, and without any help from Oprah.

However, when the General Election rolls around, I personally think Oprah would become a liability to Obama. If Obama does make it through the Primaries and gets the nod with Oprah at his side, I only hope he would then distance himself away from her enough in the General Election so that he could go the rest of the way on his own good standing. In the General Election, I think Obama would have a decent chance to win on his own, but if it's the Oprah and Obama Show, I think the other side would have a field day with us.

How do you think the Oprah affect will play out? Do you agree it could take away enough of Hillary's "women over the age of 55" group to put Obama over the top in the Primaries? If so, would Oprah's affect be one thing in the primaries but another in the GE?
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Fredda Weinberg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 12:25 PM
Response to Original message
1. I'd hate to have anyone possess such power. n/t
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0007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Amen!
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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 12:26 PM
Response to Original message
2. Well, thank you for your contempt for women over 55.
I adore Oprah but she does not make my political choices.

And you are clearly misinformed about Oprah's demographics.
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mtnsnake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 12:28 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. No such thing exists on my part, so what's your problem?
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Justyce Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 12:27 PM
Response to Original message
4. It would truly surprise me if Oprah has much effect in the longrun. nt
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mtnsnake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 12:35 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. When you say longrun, are you talking the General Election or the Primaries?
I don't think she'd have a postive effect in the longrun but I do think she could in the shortrun (the Primaries).
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 12:28 PM
Response to Original message
6. You're overplaying this
Edited on Fri Dec-07-07 12:29 PM by BeyondGeography
Oprah is just some icing on the cake, perhaps more of a factor in SC than anywhere else, but the last poll there shows Obama already has a 51-27 advantage with black voters over Clinton, and many of those must be women.

Oprah is positive reinforcement for women in particular who are already either with Obama or leaning toward him. If he wasn't a strong candidate on his own, she wouldn't be able to help one bit.
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Progress And Change Donating Member (617 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 12:37 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. How is Obama polling among South Carolina GLBT people?
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 12:40 PM
Response to Original message
9. I dont think so. She is a negative as much as she is a positive. She is polarizing. But what she
will do, is get him good press coverage and huge crowds. And that's about it.
For the rest, he's on his own.

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mtnsnake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. But if she gets him "good press & huge crowds", isn't that huge in itself?
I think you're point about her being "polarizing" is food for thought. That's why I think she could have a positive effect for him in the primaries but a negative effect in the general, if she's still at his side then.
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 12:53 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. The "huge" aspect is really is just for the media. People will show up in droves
because it's a free ticket to a great party. Adn the press gets something to buzz about. Those predisposed to like him, will do so. Those looking for a candidate might pay him a closer look than they would if they hadnt seen him, but I don't expect him to ride it to the WH.

Overall, I think it's great if it get's people to start paying attention.

Any "sheeple" factor that might occur, will die out, because the realities of any candidate do finally set in...even with Obama. Well, they die out, in the real world. Not here. :D

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MethuenProgressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 12:46 PM
Response to Original message
11. Her demographic is older white females.
Which would match the demo of your average caucus/primary voter.
Sure, she'll help him. What's sad is that he needs celebrity endorsements to move higher in the polls.
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mtnsnake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 01:11 PM
Response to Reply #11
17. Yup, she's got fans of all ages & genders, but that's her most dedicated following
according to everything that's ever been said about her demographics.

It's the same demographic that Hillary is counting on so badly.
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Tuesday Afternoon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 12:47 PM
Response to Original message
12. She can help all she wants,but will HE get there? That is the question.
n/t
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mtnsnake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. I'm not sure. That's why I started this thread.
I'm under the opinion that her help will be a plus right now, but if he makes it to the General Election that he should go it without her so she doesn't overshadow him.
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Tuesday Afternoon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 01:02 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. IF he makes it to the general election, Oprah is savvy enough to
step back and let him shine in his own spotlight and bask in his own glory. That she help fund the spotlight is her choice as an individual and her right as a citizen.
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mtnsnake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. I agree
"that she help fund the spotlight is her choice as an individual and her right as a citizen".

What I'm not so sure about is that she'll step aside once the general election comes if he makes it there. I hope you're right.
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Cameron27 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 01:40 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. I agree,
(and btw, I love your user name)
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Tuesday Afternoon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 06:57 PM
Response to Reply #19
23. Thanks. --
:blush: Yours is nice, too. ;)
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BenDavid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 01:36 PM
Response to Original message
18. Obama just like Oprah once you get past the celebrity there is
nothing there. Oprah's support for Obama is not based upon her belief that Obama is the most experienced. The most knowledgeable, Better leadership skills than the others, NO! Oprah is supporting Obama for the simple reason he is black. That's all well and good but for Oprah and even Mrs Obama to ask for my vote simply because he is black is stupid. Also, Oprah should know that voting for a person because of the color of his skin is racist.

Michelle Obama: If You’re Black, Vote for Barack. Because He’s Black.
When Sen. Barack Obama inevitably loses in his bid to become the next President of the United States (whether that be in the Democratic Primary or in the General Election), his wife has already started laying the foundation of blame.And who is Michelle Obama laying the early blame on? Black people.
Michelle Obama thinks that if her hubby doesn’t win, it’s because black folk don’t have enough self-esteem:
Reporter: “The polls are showing your husband is trailing Hillary by 46% to 37% in the African-American community. What’s going on here?”
Mrs. Obama: “First of all, I think that that’s not going to hold. I’m completely confident: black America will wake up, and get . But what we’re dealing with in the black community is just the natural fear of possibility.

Riiiiigggghhhtttt….Read the entire thing — in addition to blaming black people’s low self esteem for her husbands failed popularity — Michelle also tells the black community that they should be voting for her hubby for no other reason than they share the same color skin.

Now imagine that the white wife of a white senator blamed their campaign woes on the low self esteem of the black community…
UrbanGrounds


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mtnsnake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #18
20. Excellent point about that remark
the one Michelle made. You can bet your bottom dollar that the neocons have already filed that one away in their top drawer. Remarks like that can sink the ship.
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Beacool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 04:59 PM
Response to Original message
21. I sure hope not!!!!!
Whether Oprah endorsed Obama, Hillary or anybody else, she should NOT have the power to propel someone into the White House. Have we become so enamored of celebrities in this country that we would vote one way or another depending on who Oprah likes?????? Beyond depressing and pathetic!!!
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killbotfactory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 05:05 PM
Response to Original message
22. She won't make or break Obama, but she's not going to hurt him
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gulliver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-07-07 08:27 PM
Response to Original message
24. It is a very big gamble by Obama.
It may cost him the very gravitas he needs the most. Her name is practically synonymous with lightweight babble for bubbleheads. Then she may Stedman-ize Obama or outman him on camera. Gore didn't help Dean. Moore didn't help Clark. Both endorsements hurt.
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