Edwards may win Iowa late yet not get credit for it in the media because of exit polls

The polling is all bullshit because the caucus system does not weight all precincts equally. Many rural precincts have a disproportionate influence in relation to their population in the state. This means that the pollsters are all under-counting rural votes and Edwards has many of these rural counties locked up. But Fineman makes the point that Edwards will get screwed because even if he wins Iowa late in the day, the exit polls will initially show he lost because like all the polls they will have underrepresented the rural vote.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22217110/

Quite simply, this Iowa debate (and Iowa itself) is his first and last chance. He has placed all his money and bets for years on Iowa, where he is practically a local at this point. He absolutely HAS to win to get the media attention he needs to leverage his effort here into national momentum. He has the best, most cogent and inspiring stump speech, and a good, loyal organization. He could get pummeled by media dynamics. There will be exit polls on caucus night, but they will not be an accurate reflection of the final tallies of caucus delegates – the legally meaningful number – until later. Also, he is strongest in the small western towns, whose disproportionate influence in the delegate tallies (don’t ask) won’t show up in the exits. In other words, he could win but not get credit for it by the time the winners are declared.

I don't get it.

It all comes out in the wash -- right?

Just wait a day or two until the final vote is tallied.

Which I imagine Edwards will be smart enough to do.

It ain't over, folks, until the fat lady sings.

While not a lot, is enough for Edwards to carry that momentum into New Hampshire. I think undecided who weren't sure about Edwards viability might break to him with a win in Iowa.

going to handle the fact that their choice candidates may not
win.

This morning on Scarborough Erin Burnette(Business Anchor CNBC)
was giving the Wall Street Picks.

Guilliani Most Favored by WS
Clinton 2ond Place as I remember about 6or 7 pts below Guilliani

Romney
Thompson
Obama
McCain


Edwards and Huckabee not acceptable to Wall Street--Too Populist.

keeping headlines & spotlight off Edwards.

blitz. How is that bad?

...but I don't think so.

All Iowa caucusing caucusing begins at 6:30 p.m. There are thousands of caucus sites
across Iowa, all starting at this time. The process is pretty much the same in
each precinct. Obviously, some caucus sites will wrap up the process in a half
hour. Some will take an hour, and some going on longer. However, this
entire process begins and ends within a three-hour time frame.

It's not like a vote...where you can cast your ballot all day. Everyone leaves for their respective caucuses around 6:00, because if you're not there promptly at 6:30, you don't get to
caucus.

With that said, if a caucus goer participates in an exit poll and those results are revealed, they would have no effect on anyone caucusing, because all caucus goers would have all ready participated.

Anyone sitting at home hearing exit poll results, would fit into two categories: 1.) They've
all ready caucused and they're home, which means the exit polls can't influence them, OR 2.) They
didn't caucus and an exit poll can't assuade someone who doesn't participate.

So, those exit polls could not have an impact on any caucus goer.

Unless I'm missing something---and please correct me if I am misunderstanding--exit polls
are not a factor AT ALL.