Iowa- ABC-WAPO-Obama 33-Clinton 29-Edwards 20/Insider Advantage Obama -27- Edwards -26-Clinton 24

DemocratSinceBirth

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Wed Dec-19-07 07:02 AM
Original message

Iowa- ABC-WAPO-Obama 33-Clinton 29-Edwards 20/Insider Advantage Obama -27- Edwards -26-Clinton 24

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

This will be a tough one to call...

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

earthlover

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Wed Dec-19-07 07:24 AM
Response to Original message

1. Big variance on Edwards' numbers between the two polls

The Insider Advantage poll actually has Edwards ahead among "likely" caucus goers, the above is for "very likely" goers. But the other poll has Edwards way in the cellar.

There is a lot of talk about Edwards from that poll. If he were to surge, this could really change the dynamics of the race. He does have the organization left over from 04, and has been in Iowa a long time.

Maybe this will be a race for third place! My bets would be on Hillary for third.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

BeyondGeography

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Wed Dec-19-07 09:14 AM
Response to Reply #1

4. The I.A. poll sample has voters under 45 at 10% of the total

Voters under 45 in Iowa actually represent 35% of eligible voters, so that poll is coming in for its share of criticism. Also, it is conducted over two days rather than four (like the ABC poll); longer timeframes are viewed with more confidence generally.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

Dawgs

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Wed Dec-19-07 09:19 AM
Original message

Amazing that they could release this poll with only 1 out of 10 polled being below age of 45.

I'd like to see the age breakdown of the ABC poll.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

DemocratSinceBirth

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Wed Dec-19-07 09:19 AM
Response to Reply #4

5. I Agree...

But on the other hand a poll taken on the 14th is going to be "fresher" than a poll taken on the 10th through the 14th because the latter poll includes older results...That's why in final pre-election polls I tend to give the last day in the field poll greater weight...

I think it's a push or pick em but I have a gut feeling Edwards wins...

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

BeyondGeography

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Wed Dec-19-07 09:27 AM
Response to Reply #5

8. ABC was 13-17; IA was 16-17

Edited on Wed Dec-19-07 09:27 AM by BeyondGeography

anyway, we ALL see what we want to see. I try to stay out of pollapaloozas but it's getting close and the poll porn has become irresistible.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

DemocratSinceBirth

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Wed Dec-19-07 09:32 AM
Response to Reply #8

10. I Was Speaking Figuratively

Edited on Wed Dec-19-07 09:34 AM by DemocratSinceBirth

The benefit of a one day poll is it's "fresher"... The liability of a one day poll is the results could be spurious...

For instance, in the run up to the NH primary in 04 Zogby showed Dean beating or Kerry or trailing him very closely in one day of weekend polling immediately prior to the primary...I knew intutitively that result was spurious, Dean was cooked after the "Scream Speech"*, and he was going to lose New Hampshire big...

*Whatever The "Scream" was or wasn't Dean was cooked after the media portrayal of it...In other words I'm not dissing Dean; just making an observation...

I wish I could start my own political polling company...

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

Czolgosz

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Wed Dec-19-07 09:10 AM
Response to Original message

2. In the ABC/WaPo poll, past caucus participants: Obama 26%, Hillary 25%, Edwards 24%. That's TIGHT!

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

DemocratSinceBirth

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Wed Dec-19-07 09:13 AM
Response to Reply #2

3. An Honest Person Would Call This A Pick Em

If this was a general election it would be easier to poll and to accept the results...It's hard to poll when only about six percent of registered voters caucus...

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

Dawgs

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Wed Dec-19-07 09:21 AM
Response to Reply #3

6. I agree.

I think the only way to make a good prediction for Iowa is to know what type of people will caucas - which is almost impossible.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

DemocratSinceBirth

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Wed Dec-19-07 09:25 AM
Response to Reply #6

7. Unless One Person Had An Overwhelming Lead Which Is Not The Case Here

What if the results are as muddled as the polls with 1, 2, and 3 coming in at 28,27, and 26?

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

Mass

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Wed Dec-19-07 09:29 AM
Response to Original message

9. Pretty much the definition of tied...

Though Edwards's numbers on the Wapo poll seems very different from every other poll I have seen, so I wonder what this is about...

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

DU AdBot (1000+ posts)

Sat May 04th 2024, 01:06 AM
Response to Original message

Advertisements [?]

Top

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.