Hillary regains 12 pt lead in N.H. (tweetys head will explode later)

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/12/19/clinton-recaptures-lead-in-new-hampshire/

"After slipping into a virtual tie with Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois in last week’s New Hampshire poll, along with several other recent surveys, the New York senator now has a twelve-point lead over Obama in our new poll, 38 percent to 26 percent. Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina is in third place at 14 percent. The remaining Democratic White House hopefuls are all in single digits in our new survey, which was conducted by the University of New Hampshire".

Tweety is gonna have the vapors for sure on his show today..
He's got to be frantically looking for a grade school poll showing Obama ahead to refute this..

When a poll differs massively from all other polls, it has to be regarded as an outlier. And the Clinton supporters are not doing themselves any favors by grasping at straws.

Sorry to hear it. But discarding outliers is one of the most basic skill for interpreting polls. Every other poll in NH has Clinton in second place or statistically tied. A 12 point spike isn't at all realistic, since there's been no reason for it.

reason for the result.

"A 12 point spike isn't at all realistic, since there's been no reason for it."

The poll is an outlying datum. It would still be an outlying datum whether it met your expectations or not.

If a candidate's opponent was caught in bed with a Mexican street hooker, that would be a reason for NOT discarding a sudden single-point shift in the data. In this case, there's absolutely nothing that would indicate a shift of double-digit magnitude.

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson Biden Spread
RCP Average 12/09 - 12/18 - 33.4 27.4 16.0 7.0 2.0 Clinton +6.0
Rasmussen 12/18 -12/18 791 LV 31 28 18 8 2 Clinton +3.0
CNN/WMUR 12/13 - 12/17 469 LV 38 26 14 8 2 Clinton +12.0
FOX News 12/11 - 12/13 500 LV 34 25 15 6 2 Clinton +9.0
Concord Monitor 12/10 - 12/12 31 32 18 8 2 Obama +1.0
Suffolk/WHDH 12/09 - 12/11 LV 33 26 15 5 -- Clinton +7.0

All they do is take ALL the polls, and average them out regardless of their methodology, no analysis. That's going to produce nothing really useful, because you're not even discarding outliers.

One of which shows Hillary 12 points ahead and another shows her ahead by nine. The average lead is six. That makes a poll with a 12 point lead less of an exception.

I posted the list primarily because your post said Hillary was behind or within margin of error on every other poll. She's actually only behind by 1 point on one and well up in others.

If polls are run professionally, and those listed are, only 1 poll in 20 should be an outlier.

So all this really does is confirm that HRCs hardcore supporters haven't changed their minds. 40% are still trying to decide between Obama, Edwards and Biden or others.

:rofl:

Today the Rudyator, the leader of the freeish world, the testosterone savior has put down again his wimpy opponents with awesome remarks. Also Romney himself put in the streets a serial killer and he is like that Democratic candidate that didn't care if his wive was raped. Thompson is such a presence, when he enters a room I see a tall guy, do you notice he is tall that's very important for a president, and his voice is manly also.

Hillary is printing in her basement driving licenses for illegal suicide bombers, and she is just like Bush (the guy I loved because of his manliness like now I love Rrrrrudy). We can't allow this woman with her high pitch voice as a leading candidate. Obama you should say what I'm going to say right now. Edwards I have disqualified you.

Now lets talk with this reporter and give her some weird compliments out of the Brat Pack socializing handbook.

The Clinton machine's hit job(s) on Obama apparently haven't been working either nationally or in IA, but there's a sudden, HUGE gain for Hillary in NH this week? Is it possible? In my experience, only if there was a major, so-far unreported phone, possibly TV and definitely direct mail campaign in NH by the Hillary campaign that had a far, far greater impact than anything they've used nationally or in Iowa. NH is critical for them, so it's certainly possible that they're doing something on the q.t. that could have the kind of effect on NH Dem and Independent voters who had intended to vote for Obama that the McCain black baby smear had on the right-wing Republican base in SC in 2000. More realistically, though, it seems incredibly unlikely that anything that impactful would have shown up in the blogs by now at the very least. Since absolutely nothing has been mentioned anywhere, I'd think it much more likely that the new poll is an outlier. That's only my opinion, of course. Time will tell if it's for real and, if so, why.

nt

Democrats had better get their shit together REAL soon, or even IF a Democrat becomes President... Congress will be Repuke!

It's more than DISGUSTING that they don't even TRY to fight!!

believe it, just pay attention to the coverage and when the polls change and to what. Whatever the television tells sheeple, is truth! Look at how many people still believe that Saddam had something to do with 9/11, most American sheeple have no clue to the reality of whats happening in our country and where its headed. Some are stupid, some don't want to see the truth and some see it but think they can do nothing because the government is going to do whatever it wants to. Our country isn't about the government serving its people anymore, thats way gone.

what the mediawhores are capable of after 7 long years of watching them burn the truth.

its like watching a train wreck...
he has actually become a parody of real news..almost...
almost..as bad as Faux..

watch. I even have a hard time listening to Stephanie Miller's show when she plays clips from the right wing.