Brand New CNN Iowa Poll-Clinton 30% Obama 28% Edwards 26%

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Just two weeks until the Iowa caucuses, the Democratic presidential candidates appear to be in a dead heat in the Hawkeye State, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll


Thirty percent of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers support Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York as the nominee, with Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois at 28 percent and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina at 26 percent, according to the poll, released Thursday morning.

With the poll's sampling error at plus or minus 4 percentage points, it's a virtual tie for the top spot in Iowa, the first state to vote in the race for the White House.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/20/iowa.poll/index.html

The next two weeks will be fun!

I posted mine in LBN without seeing this in GD. Oh well.

I was trying to explain to my girlfriend who is from the Phillipines the saliency of the Iowa caucus in the nominiating process...

With his support in the rural areas, and those precincts being weighed heavier than urban precincts,I think JRE is well on his way to a 1st place victory in Iowa.

I am not sure if I remember any other recent polls that put Clinton even statistically innsignificantly in the lead among "likelY" Iowa caucus goers. When that particular screen has been used by others before usually Clinton comes in second or third. Possibly she got a bump from the DMR endorsement - possibly this poll is one more piece of confetti in the wind. Or both.

CNN, Rasmussen, and Zogby...

That being said, if you look at all the polls it appears Obama still has a small edge...Hillary's base is older voters...Everything we know about voting patterns suggests older folks are the most likely to vote...

I admit I haven't been paying close attention, but I remember several polls where Clinton's numbers drop when the criteria specified likely voters and not just basis voter preferences. The polls you mention above may well have Clinton technically ahead even with likely voters and I may have glossed over that aspect.

But it is close in Iowa, no doubt, and the nature of the caucus process builds in lots of uncertainties.

Seriously, you had no qualms about writing that? Amazing.

their bingo clubs. Ask them.

Yes it is literally true. And tens of millions of full time workers pick up lotto tickets at the gas station which is just as true. But I think in an imagry sense that Church Bingo games are framed as being as far away from "cool" as any stereotype imaginable. You know those "hip Seniors" ads that one financial institution or another likes to run? First you see yesterday's Seniors playing shuffle board, but then they imply that today's cutting edge Seniors would rather go for a flight in a Glider.

I may be overly sensitive to this, but what with Rush doing his number lately about how "old" Hillary looks, and the framing of Obama's candidacy as young and vibrant - stereotyping seems suspect to me, even if unintentional. Why the focus on Bingo, why not simply say Seniors?

Because come Hell or high water the "Bingos" GET to their favorite Bingo hall

I do hundreds of medical home visits and Bingo adventures are a favorite subject

I often see them after a hospital stay and getting on a bus to a favorite

casino for Bingo or a local church is often a priority for them


So it's not just Seniors, but the super duper motivated crowd that I was referring to

Hillary could do very well with them because they will show up

basically been saying "don't have a clue who is going to win". The MOE is 4% and the numbers have not really changed. It is anybody's guess who is going to win.

This is the best of all possible outcomes. I am so excited NOT knowing who is going to set the pace for the primary! Then we here in NH get to put our "spin" on things - this is going to be a dog fight - wooohooo!

:thumbsup: