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Does Senator Obama lead among registered Democrats anywhere?

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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 05:34 PM
Original message
Does Senator Obama lead among registered Democrats anywhere?
Edited on Thu Dec-20-07 05:53 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
(Except Illinois, of course. I am sure he leads among Dems there.)

ON EDIT: The question is about voters currently registered as Democrats. Some polls break out party affiliation and Obama does well with independents, and Hillary does well with registered Democrats. I was curious whether there is anywhere where Obama leads Clinton among Dems.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 05:36 PM
Response to Original message
1. Are you asking specifically for RV or will LV do?
Are you just trying to find out if he leads anywhere else?
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 05:48 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Specifically registered Dems.
Obama has a big lead among dem-leaning independents in NH and Iowa, and Hillary has solid leads among registered Dems in those states. I doubt any poll in either state has been any different, when you break out the party affiliation numbers.

I was watching a piece on TV about Obama's out-reach to independents in NH, and given his independent appeal, was wondering if he has ever led among registered Dems anywhere except IL.

I'm guessing no, but I don't know for sure.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 05:51 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. Dem leaning indies are a bigger factor in NH than in IA aren't they?
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 05:57 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Yes and no. Since you can register at the caucus, indys can vote in Iowa if
they change their registration.

I believe that Obama leads by something like 25 points among Iowa indys who plan to caucus Dem, and Hillary leads by about 10 among Dems, so since they are pretty close in the poll totals I would guess Dems are 250% of dem leaning indys in Iowa.

Indys are a bigger deal in NH... I think it's about a third of all voters. To date, 2/3 say they plan to vote in the Dem primary in NH, but that's before McCain's resurgence, so it will probably be somewhat closer to 50-50. (??)
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bunnies Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 06:03 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. NH Indys are nearly 50% according to some tallies Ive seen.
The lowest one Ive seen is something like 43%, so theyre really the deciding force here. We have more Indys than anything else in NH... but I dont think they'll be voting for McCain again. He's been too Bush on Iraq.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Good to know. Didn't remember it was that high
Edited on Thu Dec-20-07 06:05 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
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SteppingRazor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 05:37 PM
Response to Original message
2. Averaging out the polls for the last week, he leads in Iowa.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html


Though the lead is so tiny as to be insignificant.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 05:44 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Hilary has a sizable point Iowa lead among registered Democrats.
Edited on Thu Dec-20-07 05:50 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
Obama has about a 20+ point lead among independents planning to vote in the Dem caucus. (He's in the 40s among that group.)

That's my rough recollection from every poll I've seen that has made party affiliation subsets available.
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maximusveritas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #3
12. Research 2000 poll
He leads among Dems in Iowa in that one. That's the first one I checked.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. That poll is kind of an established oddity, but you're right.
Edited on Thu Dec-20-07 06:27 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
That's the poll that had Obama 33, Clinton 24, Edwards 24.

(While showing Obama actually trailing Edwards among Indys but up over Edwards 33-24 overall.)

It's an outlier, but you are correct.

http://www.qctimes.com/multimedia/documents/071214_iowa_caucus_poll.pdf
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 05:50 PM
Response to Original message
5. I don't remember any others....hopefully someone will chime in if there are
I've been poll perusing for several days now and everything is a blur...
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nevergiveup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 06:28 PM
Response to Reply #5
14. You got that right!
I don't ever remember polls being so all over the place. I already have dizziness from my high blood pressure medicine so I have decided it is best to ignore all polls for the time being.
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 07:23 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. Especially in Iowa and NH. You can get whiplash from trying to keep up with those!
:)
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TeamJordan23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 06:06 PM
Response to Original message
10. How many people in the country are registered Dems? Isn't it down in the 30s now? nm
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-20-07 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. That sounds right. But in some state primaries, only they can vote
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