Ok, that's it: Predict the results of the Iowa Caucuses now (Winner, 2nd and 3rd place).

We'll keep this alive throughout next week. It's the moment to show your skills.

Hillary wins by 1 or 2 points

Edwards 8 points back or so..

Biden at 15% gives him a boost...

responded to wrong person

On edit: I essentially agree with SaveElmer, above, though I think Obama will get the extra point or two.

Biden could come in third or fourth as a surprise. But as to the other three alone: Close, one way or another.

:shrug:

3 pts up over Obama, then Biden, Richardson, Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel.

And let me emphasize that this is nothing more than a guess from what I can see on the ground and judging from past caucus experiences:

1- Edwards (strong supporters amongst regular caucus attendees - he knows how to make a closing argument)
2- Clinton (strong supporters and a strong GOTV machine and a great candidate)
3- Biden (he has a late surge at just the right time)
4- Obama (peaked too soon, too much reliance on first time caucus attendees - but if his GOTV works he could swing up to #2)
5- Dodd (great candidate, too many other great candidates and the firefighters are working caucus night)
6- Richardson (never made it to the top three, will have a hard time with 15% threshold in almost all precincts)

or Obama - Clinton - Edwards. Either way, it's gonna be close and I don't know if we'll have a "clear winner" by Super Duper Tuesday.

That is my prediction

Clinton, Biden, Edwards, Obama

..bookmarked

Iowa might make history!

I could care less how the top three place. I believe Biden will be the Iowa '08 shocker & place 2nd, & possibly -- crosses fingers -- 1st!

However, I want to see a Biden/Obama nomination and eventual victory.

Historically they have the most accuracy.

I'm rooting for Obama over Hillary, but the trends suggest differently.

right up there in the mix and getting some media attention and see if he can hold his own and get across his viewpoint and foreign policy experience which Obama and Edwards don't have.

Ah........Race horse time !!!

heh, heh.

The polls are so close, it'll come down to who has the better ground game. That benefits Obama and Edwards more than Clinton.

Obama goes on to win NH by a much wider margin than Clinton wins Iowa (not that they actually count votes in Iowa, anyway)

I've been picking Obama in Iowa for a long time now, but it's not looking good in the home-stretch. Some progressives seem to be drifting to Edwards, and the third party efforts are helping solidify Clinton's core.

On the other hand, if Obama wins Iowa he is well positioned to take NH and SC, which was not the case a while back.

So his campaign is now even more high-risk, high-reward than previously.

(on edit: I must admit my Biden pick is largely sentimental... there is nothing in polling to suggest any Biden move so far.)

The housing market (or, more precisely, the growing public awareness that the housing market story isn't going away) is not helpful for Obama. It has introduced a level of fear, and fear is not his ally.

Hope you had a lovely time in PR!

well in a perfect world :)

Reality: Clinton Edowards Obama

Just my guess.:shrug:

the 2nd-choice votes will carry the evening...

On-ground flash polling shows this is where things are at this week.

been devastating to his caucus prospects. Just a month ago, I thought he was going to win it; now, I doubt that.

It will come down to organization, and Obama has set up an impressive one.
Clinton has the insiders in her corner.
Edwards has Trippi.

My honest opinion. I don't care about the rest. Sorry.

-P