USA Today takes note on Biden's growing chances

But first (from the article) Hey Obama - leave Biden's supporters alone :)

"Some of you may have decided to support Joe Biden or Chris Dodd or somebody else," Barack Obama told a crowd of about 400 in Mason City. "We still want to be your second choice."

snips -
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2007-12-27-democrats_N.htm

Who will get the votes of caucusgoers whose candidates are eliminated in the first round of voting? (Democratic candidates generally need 15% of the vote at a precinct caucus to stay in the running.)

The unpredictability of the caucuses means each of the Democrats has a chance to win or at least finish stronger than expected, and all are in Iowa to make their case.


Four years ago, state Rep. Bruce Hunter recalled he was "on the victory bus with Howard Dean trying to figure out how much we would win by." Instead, the former Vermont governor finished third — effectively sinking his campaign — when the legions of enthusiastic young people who had animated his rallies "just didn't show up," Hunter said.

That history is giving hope to supporters of Joseph Biden and John Edwards, who are focusing on Democrats with a track record of attending caucuses, especially union voters and older people. "My guys have pickups. They have to go to work in the ice," said United Steelworkers political director Chuck Rocha, an Edwards backer.

At the Italian-American Cultural Center here, where a mostly middle-age and older crowd of about 300 packed in to hear Biden this week, Iowa's House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy said the Delaware senator is surging with "the right demographic." The average age of caucusgoers in 2004 was 54, according to Iowa Democratic Party spokeswoman Carrie Giddins.

That means that big crowds and impressive poll numbers — which Obama and Clinton have — don't always translate into victory.

"What happens in the second round is very important," says McCarthy, who is supporting Biden this year. Norm Sterzenbach, political director of the Iowa Democratic Party, agrees. Becoming the consolation prize "could be a key to success on caucus night," he says

Go Joe!!!

And Mr. Obama? You are my second choice. Biden/Obama. I like the sound of that.

I believe that is a winning ticket.

;)

I know there is a surprise to be had out there.... :applause:

will we?

Just saw your siggie line. :applause:

said a lot of positive things about Joe and wanted to see a ticket with both their names! We just differed on the order of the names!

that Obama is appealing to Biden and Dodd supporters. He knows something is going on in Iowa and he's covering his bets.

is asking for people to consider him as their #2.

and trying to reach a more reliable demographic. This is very interesting and shows that Obama has some smart people advising him.

I saw that a few days ago and went; hmmm.....

In some places, Dodd and Biden will not make the bar of 15 % and Obama is respecting their initial choice, but appealing to them to caucus with him once Biden and Dodd will not have a group anymore.

Nothing shocking there.

And good news concerning Biden if the media are starting to talk about him more. It is about time. For him, coming out of Iowa third or strong fourth would be a great position, and, with the weird caucus system, who knows what may happen?

"Who will get the votes of caucus goers whose candidates are eliminated in the first round of voting? (Democratic candidates generally need 15% of the vote at a precinct caucus to stay in the running.)"

That's wrong...WRONG! A candidate is NOT eliminated b/c they are not viable in the first round. I can't believe just about EVERY MAJOR PUBLICATION GETS THIS WRONG! (Thank you to the Chicago Tribune for getting right and WTF? to Iowa's own David Yepsen who 1/2 the time gets it wrong!!)

If a candidate does not reach the viability threshold (typically 15% but higher when the delegate count is lower...don't ask) their supporters have several options.

1) stay with their candidate and try to get supporters of other non-viable candidates - or those who went into the caucuses uncommitted - to join them and make their candidate viable.

2) go to a different non-viable candidate to make that candidate viable.

3) go to a viable candidate

4) ask supporters of a viable candidate that has reached the threshold but doesn't have enough support to get an additional delegate to join them and make their candidate viable (keeping a different candidate from getting an additional delegate or becoming viable)

5) gather together with other non-viable candidate supporters to create an 'uncommitted' group - that would need whatever the threshold is to become viable itself.

6) stay put an not be counted.

.....

I guess what the USA TODAY printed is easier and quicker...meh the actual rules :eyes:

I think I'd just stay put cause it's easiest to understand.

:spray:

It's not hard to understand. Isn't it nice to know that as a caucus-goer you have so many options?