Another poll - out today......

Reallocated Numbers Based on Second Preferences Gives Edwards A Solid Lead

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Poll: Clinton and Edwards in Virtual Tie in Iowa
Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff reports

December 31, 2007 — Using the same polling methodology that successfully predicted the outcome of the 2004 Democratic Caucus in Iowa, InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research has been conducting a daily tracking poll among likely voters in the Jan. 3 Iowa Democratic Caucus, and it shows a statistical tie between Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, with Barack Obama starting to lag.

Clinton has 30%, Edwards 29%, Obama 22%, with 14% committed to other candidates and 5% undecided.
The survey was conducted Jan. 28-29 among 788 likely Democratic voters in Iowa. The poll has been weighted for gender and age. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%.

Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.
Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be:

Edwards: 41%
Clinton: 34%
Obama: 25%

My One Question About The Register Poll So Far...
Marc Ambinder
31 Dec 2007 10:24 pm
Is in its turnout assumptions: only 50% of the sample are Democrats... 40% are independents and 5% are Republicans.

This could mean two things:
1. Independents love Obama and say they're going to caucus for him but won't
2. Independents love Obama and will go to the caucus, register as Democrats, and caucus for Obama

In any event, the poll suggests that independents are asserting themselves in a way that's confounding the pollsters and the establishment.

Note: Obama's internal polling does not show this high a proportion of independents choosing to caucus.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/12/my_one_question_about_the_regi.php