Noron O'Donnell on Tweety just said 55% 1st timers caucused for Kerry in 2004

gaiilonfong

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Wed Jan-02-08 08:01 PM
Original message

Noron O'Donnell on Tweety just said 55% 1st timers caucused for Kerry in 2004

So there blows the LIE that 60% new caucus goers is too high.
Obama is the winner, not doubt now!

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OHdem10

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Wed Jan-02-08 08:13 PM
Response to Original message

1. The media are setting the stage so Bloomberg can jump

in and save us all.

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gaiilonfong

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Wed Jan-02-08 08:15 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. Never going to happen!

They can try their best, but the media loses this one!

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dsc

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Wed Jan-02-08 08:17 PM
Response to Original message

3. You are messing up your percents

The 60% referred to not the percent of new voters who are voting for Obama but the percent of the total vote which is new.

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gaiilonfong

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Wed Jan-02-08 08:20 PM
Response to Reply #3

4. Same thing

55% new caucus goers and they went for Kerry
60% new caucus goers are assumed by the poll

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dsc

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Wed Jan-02-08 08:27 PM
Response to Reply #4

6. No, it isn't the same thing

You said, and I quote, 55% OF new caucus goers went for Kerry. That means that for every 100 new caucus goers 55 voted for Kerry. It tells us nothing at all about how many caucus goers were new caucus goers. The poll in question, says 60% OF ALL caucus goers will be new caucus goers. That says for every 100 caucus goers 60 will be new. That means if 100,000 people caucus, 60,000 will be new. It doesn't say anything about how many of them vote for Obama.

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jenmito

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Wed Jan-02-08 08:24 PM
Response to Reply #3

5. No. They're first-time caucus goers 55%. The DMR knows what it's talking about which

Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 08:33 PM by jenmito

is made clear now. The DMR also looked at who would win among those SURE to caucus and Obama still wins.

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dsc

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Wed Jan-02-08 08:28 PM
Response to Reply #5

7. See my post above

You are saying something different than you think you are saying.

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jenmito

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Wed Jan-02-08 08:30 PM
Response to Reply #7

8. I saw the show. The OP is worded wrongly. 55% of voters were 1st time caucus-goers.

Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 08:32 PM by jenmito

and the DMR poll was based on 60% 1st time caucus-goers. (I also was wrong when I said 55% went for Kerry. They didn't. It was 55% TOTAL when Kerry won.)

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dsc

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Wed Jan-02-08 08:34 PM
Response to Reply #8

9. I didn't see the show

so I was going on what you and the OP said. Sorry.

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jenmito

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Wed Jan-02-08 08:36 PM
Response to Reply #9

10. It's ok. It was worded wrongly. But the main idea is the same...

the results of the DMR look pretty darn accurate.

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