****POST YOUR IOWA PREDICTION HERE****

Who do *YOU* think will win Thursday night?

Let's see how smart we all are.



I say the order of finish will be...

1. Obama.....(31%)
2. Edwards...(22%)
3. Clinton.....(22%)
4. Biden.......(20%)

I think Biden is going to shock people with a close 4th place finish, with what essentially will be a 3-way tie for 2nd.

1. Obama.....(34%)
2. Edwards...(21%)
3. Biden.......(20%)
4. Clinton.....(18%)

Kuchnich...Obama; Richardson...Clinton; Dodd...Biden; Gravel...Obama

pull out a stronger suprise finish than has been predicted.

holy buckets I hope you're right.

For the record, I am leaning heavily towards Obama. A part of that is rooting for the home team (I live in Chicago).

However, when they start caucusing the "kids" arguing Obama's case, and the women arguing Clinton's will attract fewer undecideds and second choicers than the middle-aged and older men standing in Edward's corner. Group psychology is on Edward's side in Iowa.

In a normal, secret ballot election, I believe it would be Obama, Edwards, Clinton then Biden.

to say it anyway.

Obama 39%, Edwards 32%, Clinton 26%, Biden 2%, Richardson 1%.....ok that is my long shot....


Edwards 1st, Clinton 2nd, Obama 3rd, Richardson/Biden Distant 4th/5th....is probably what it will be

Obama - 33
Clinton - 29
Edwards - 27

Edwards 33%
Clinton/Obama within a point of eachother at 29%
Others: 9% or so

I know about the 15% rule, but going by past caucuses it seems possible.

Little Inez 40%
Tracey Turnblad 35%
Amber Von Tussle 20%

Edie Johnson wins in a landslide.

I just saw "Hairspray" for the first time last weekend! Loved it!

Now I need to go back and see the John Waters original with Ricki Lake and Divine.

:hi:

Just rough. I'll give myself a margin or error of 3%.

Edwards 36%
Obama 27%
Hillary 21%
Biden 11%
Richardson 1%
Dodd 1%
Kucinich 1%

Sorry Gravel. No better luck next time either.

Obama: 31%
Edwards: 29%
Clinton: 26%

Edwards will surprise a lot of people tomorrow evening is my guess...

:toast:

On the Dem. side Edwards & Obama seem to have the momentum but Clinton's got the organization. It'll come down to whose supporters are the most committed. Right now it looks like the Chicago kid just might pull it out.

For the Pugs Huck's got the momentum AND the holy roller juice, Mittens has to be sweating.

COWGIRL'S DARK HORSE SHOCKERS:

DEMS: Clinton finishes behind Richardson or Biden.

PUGS: Ron Paul pulls off a shocker and knocks off Mittens. I predict he will at least outfinish McCain & Rudy. Paul's polling low because they aren't asking the right people.

Iowa has a very populist streak, and I have a feeling that is going to come through strongly.


Just a thought.

Obama - 33
Edwards - 28
Clinton - 26
The rest - 13

1) Edwards
2) Obama
3) Biden
4) Clinton

Not sure about 3 and 4 but I do expect Edwards to be #1 and Obama to be #2

Edwards in 1st and Hillary in 4th -- delightful! However, I'm not holding my breath. :)

However, here's my hope (with a dash of reality thrown in)

1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton
4. Biden

This is a reeeeally tough one and I think it could go any which way among the top three.

Obama has a clear lead, lots of momentum, and Kucinich's seal of approval. But, his poll numbers rely on a lot of first-time caucus-goers.

Edwards is in the running, is an alternative between the top two, and is a strong second choice for supporters of a lot of other candidates. If many of the supporters of the under 15% candidates go to Edwards, it could add up significantly.

Clinton's numbers and momentum don't look as good and she isn't a strong second choice the way Obama is for Kucinich, and Edwards for others. But, her base may be the most solid and likely to show up to caucus.

So I don't know, but I'm going to guess Edwards in the lead, then Obama then Clinton but very close.

But I really have no idea!! It'll be an exciting night tomorrow!!

1/ Edwards
2/ Obama
3/ Clinton

(wish Obama would win, but I think Edwards will win big)

while iraqis bleed...

will he held accountable by these guys who are running for President? that is the question.

Edwards 33%
Obama 25%
Clinton 20%
Biden 16%
Everybody else 4%

Margin of error at 3%

Not sure about the percentages.

With Edwards Pretty far out in front and the others basically fighting for 2nd - but a shocking surge for Biden.

I really don't know, and whatever I predict is usually way off base, so I don't want to curse it.

1. Clinton.....(35%)
2. Obama.....(33%)
3. Edwards...(28%)
4. Biden.......(4%)

Gravel -> Edwards
Kuch -> Obama
Dodd, Richardson, & Biden (where he fails to reach 15%) -> Clinton

Biden 31%
Edwards 28%
Kucinich 22%
Hillary 10%
Obama 8%
the rest 2%

Romney 33%, Huck 28%, McCain 19%

I think Huckster will with on the Thug side though.

Anyone that picks Obama less than second hasn't been paying attention.

I mean even worse ones that are raging before the caucus tonight.

that Edwards will edge out Hillary for first place, but it will be so close that the media will call it a tie and Obama will come in third. Even though Obama may have had the most support, they will not show up at the caucus. I would also predict that Biden will finish very close to Obama.

Democrats

1:Obama(35 percent)
2:Edwards(29 Percent)
3:Hillary(25 Percent)
4:Biden(15 percent)
5:Richardson(4 Percent)
6:dodd(2 Percent)
7:Kucinch(1 Percent)
8:Gravel(o)

Republicans

1:Huckabee(30 Percent)
2:Romney(28 Percent)
3:Mccain(19 Percent)
4:Paul(10 Percent)
5:Thompson(9 percent)
6:Saint Rudy(6 Percent)
7:Hunter(1 Percent)
8:Keyes(1 Percent)

I think the big upset will be Biden finishing In double digets.Huckabee will just barely beat Romney but the media will use Mccain finishing at 19 percent as their big story.Paul slightly edging out Thompson for fourth place may seem like a wild one but I can see It happening.

And while I personally would select Edwards I feel Obama Is going to win.I also would love to see
Biden finish ahead of Hillary but that Is unlikely to happen.I have to make predictions on reality.

Obama 33
Edwards 27
Biden 21
Clinton 19

:kick:

Obama: 36
Edwards: 28
Clinton: 26
with Biden a distant but respectable 4th

I'm hoping Ron Paul does surprisingly well in Iowa thereby helping the republican party completely fall to pieces.

No one else gets delegates.

between Edwards and Obama. I think everyone else will be very far behind. I'm not sure who will win

nt

good luck to all the candidates, I am leaning towards Edwards and Biden.

Richardson 10%
Biden 8%
Divide the remaining 5% between Kucinich and Dodd.

The story tomorrow is going to be all about John Edwards. Iowa
will do for him what it did for John Kerry. In the end Iowa
Democrats are practical people who throw their support to the
candidate they believe to be the most electable.

And for the record, the sticker on my car says Clinton.

:hi:

Gravel and Richardson 1%.

Kucinich and Richardson throw their troops behind Obama for the 2nd vote.

Biden, Clinton, Dodd and Gravel throw their votes behind Edwards for the 2nd vote.

As a result, Edwards wins in a landslide.

At least that's how DU'ers would vote:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3880163

:shrug:

It really screwed all of the second-tier candidates. Congradulations Iowa caucus 'group' voting system!