NH POLL: Hillary 32 (-4), Obama 28 (+10), Edwards 19 (+7)

Democratic Presidential Primary

RINDGE, NH – As the 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary approaches, Senator
Hillary Clinton maintains a narrow lead over her Democratic rivals, but the margin
between her and her closest competitor, Barack Obama, has dwindled to just four
points. In March, Clinton (32%) held a 7-point lead over Obama (25%). In June, following
the Democratic debate, Clinton commanded a much larger number (38%) of Democratic
primary voters than Obama (16%), a lead she maintained in September. But today,
Clinton’s lead has dropped to only four points, with Clinton at 32 percent and Obama
close behind at 28 percent. Notably, John Edwards support has risen from 12 percent in
September to 19 percent in the current poll.

Overview
The findings outlined in this report are based on the latest Franklin Pierce
University / WBZ Poll, conducted by RKM Research and Communication in collaboration
with faculty and student interviewers at Franklin Pierce University. The Franklin Pierce
University / WBZ Poll is sponsored by Franklin Pierce University and WBZ. The project
represents a collaboration that provides Franklin Pierce University students unique
learning opportunities to participate in the polling process and gain real-world experience
working with an independent marketing research firm.

Methodology
The poll is based on interviews with 403 likely Democratic Presidential Primary voters.
All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample. The
survey was administered by telephone, December 27 – December 31, 2007. The survey
of 403 respondents has a maximum margin of sampling error of +/- 4.9%.

http://www.franklinpierce.edu/pages/institutes/poll/poll_08_0102d.pdf

The people who want to vote for Hillary are already committed.

She has her hard core supporters but not like Obama and Edwards. It's hard to predict exactly what will happen but her support could completely collapse leaving a two way race between Obama and Edwards.

The inevitability meme soften her supporters to apathy. An Obama win here will make people stand up and take attention. The people who really like her will get moving, and the undecideds who have applauded Obama just for getting so far will start looking at him really critically deciding if they really want him.

she will win New Hampshire and South Carolina too. I think she will win Iowa.

RKM is one of the better polling firms in New England, unlike the ludicrous ARG. This sounds pretty close to what I'm hearing; a dead heat between Obama and Clinton, with Obama closing stronger down the stretch.