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I think Obama is going to win Iowa by a sizable margin

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ruggerson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 08:48 PM
Original message
I think Obama is going to win Iowa by a sizable margin
Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 08:49 PM by ruggerson
I don't think it's going to even be close.

I think the three way tie meme is just media/horserace fluff.
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1corona4u Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 08:50 PM
Response to Original message
1. I will say this...
Edwards
Obama
????

That much, I'm sure of.
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mckeown1128 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 08:52 PM
Response to Original message
2. I don't think he will...
I would love it if he came in first but I think it will be

Edwards
Clinton
Obama

within a few points of eachother...

Obama, like all before him, will fail to convince the young vote to come out. I wish he could...but I think it is impossible, even for someone as great as he.
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ronnykmarshall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 08:55 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. That why the whole causus system is very odd.
I can't imagine people in my area going out to causus. These queens don't even get out of bed before the crack of noon.
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tigereye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 09:11 PM
Response to Reply #4
15. the idea of caucus is so cool, though
like an old fashioned town meeting, with people having to reach some kind of consensus about their candidate....


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ronnykmarshall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 09:16 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. Oh of course it is.
That's why I'm so envious of the people of Iowa. They get to see up close all the candidates and meet them. It's a wonderful event.

It's too bad that we can't even get over 50% of registered voters to actually VOTE.
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ruggerson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 09:41 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. I'm not so sure it should be the same state each time
I don't think Iowa is very representative of the entire nation. I know Iowans take their job very seriously, but there are different concerns in different states.
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mckeown1128 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 04:04 AM
Response to Reply #15
38. I understand there is a lot of intimidation
at the caucus's though. People have the right to a secret ballot. People shouldn't have to expose who they are voting for to there neighbors and coworkers.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 08:54 PM
Response to Original message
3. I'm predicting that, with record turnout, the final tally will be like this - -
Obama - 33
Edwards - 28
Clinton - 26
The rest - 13
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ruggerson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 08:55 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. That could be a pretty strong prediction
I wouldn't be surprised to see the margin be more like 6-7 points between first and second.
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annie1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 09:00 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. i think youi're right. s--t. Hillary's gonna have her ass handed to her. *sigh*.
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fightindonkey Donating Member (674 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 11:58 PM
Response to Reply #8
33. And Barack Will Have His Ass Handed To Him In NH
LOL! Poor Obama fangurls.
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Nedsdag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 09:06 PM
Response to Reply #3
13. I like that prediction.
I hope it comes true.
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MalloyLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 08:57 PM
Response to Original message
6. Won't be voting in the General Election then, or will vote third party
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ruggerson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 09:03 PM
Response to Reply #6
11. I strongly disagree
I don't support Obama (as some may know :) ) for the nomination, but will be a BIG supporter of his should he win the nomination and be our candidate.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 10:37 PM
Response to Reply #6
20. You weren't for a Dem in the GE either way.
Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 10:42 PM by Bleachers7
That's plainly obvious.
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MalloyLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 12:15 AM
Response to Reply #20
36. Funny cause I voted for Kerry in 2004 but nice try
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Gloria Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 12:50 AM
Response to Reply #6
37. I'm feeling the same, MalloyLiberal.....very disgusted with the
"top" 2 (Hillary and Obama)
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Sparkly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 08:58 PM
Response to Original message
7. Hard to say...
I think his lead depends on a great number of first-time caucus-goers, doesn't it? Yet he could get a boost from Kucinich's mini-endorsement.

And Edwards is a clear favorite 2nd choice -- there could be a big percentage right there, from the under-15% people.

Clinton's supporters in polls might be the most reliable to turn out.

It's anybody's guess!!
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ChiciB1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 09:01 PM
Response to Original message
9. I Think You Are Very Wrong... Just My Intuition Telling Me... Not Based
on polls or whatever, just think it's not going to be that way!

We shall see!
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Rageneau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 09:01 PM
Response to Original message
10. As Twain said: "Differences of opinion is what makes horse races."
I believe a different horse will win this race; a philly.
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 09:03 PM
Response to Original message
12. I agree.....Obama takes it with 39% Edwards 2nd around 33%
Hillary 3rd with 28%
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abburdlen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 09:09 PM
Response to Original message
14. I think you are right
My wild guess at this point is
Obama: 35
Edwards: 28
Clinton: 26

I just wonder when we start hearing talk of which candidate will be the anti-Obama choice.

(note, I'm firmly in the undecided camp but Obama is my distant second choice)
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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. I don't think it will be the Youth vote...but Independents
and first-time caucus goers that come out and sail Obama to the win. I also don't think any of the 2nd tier break through the 15%.

Obama: 37%
Edwards: 32%
Clinton: 29%
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DaLittle Kitty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 10:31 PM
Response to Original message
19. Obama Says Nothing and Will Stand... For Nothing!
:nuke:
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Catherine Vincent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 10:39 PM
Response to Original message
21. Wow!
Obama supporters probably had an Obamagasm after reading what you just posted. ;-)
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annie1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. lol. i love all the obamanisms. lol. at least those are amusing. :D
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MzShellG Donating Member (835 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 11:24 PM
Response to Reply #21
27. Lol...
I like that term. Thanks. :)
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Catherine Vincent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 11:54 PM
Response to Reply #27
31. You're welcome!
It just came to me. :)
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ruggerson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #21
28. heh
I hope he doesn't, but I got my reality glasses on.
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youthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 10:42 PM
Response to Original message
22. He very well could...
but as much as I like the sound of that, I believe Edwards will win Iowa. Obama second, and maybe just maybe my dark horse Biden third.
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IndianaJones Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 10:47 PM
Response to Original message
24. I disagree. We'll know tomorrow around this time. nt.
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0007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 11:07 PM
Response to Original message
25. I know he will! Absolutely certain, no doubt about it!
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 11:10 PM
Response to Original message
26. I'm not sure that he will, but if he does,
it will because of the new caucus goers and the independents. If that's the case, it will illustrate the fact that this man can calvanize enough new voters for the general election to actually win in a landslide.....against popular beliefs sold here on DU under the guise of "there's still racism out there, he will lose the GE".
I'd love to shut them folks up for sure! :)
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #26
30. After Katrina, I would love America to prove the naysayers wrong.
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calteacherguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 11:46 PM
Response to Original message
29. Edwards has a good chance, and so does Clinton.
Anything could happen. We'll just have to wait and see.

I do hope Obama's supporters turnout in large numbers. I've got a hunch...
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fightindonkey Donating Member (674 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 11:57 PM
Response to Original message
32. Iowa: Lowest Voter Turnout, Older Voters, Iowa Never Elected A Woman To Higher Office
Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 11:59 PM by fightindonkey
Edwards or Clinton will be high. Obama, I don't see him getting the top. Hillary will win NH.
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DFW Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 12:05 AM
Response to Original message
34. Obama may well win Iowa, but what will he have won?
It's a beauty contest that will be won by a small number of voters in a rural
Midwestern State. Iowa has a lot of highly educated and motivated progressives,
more than an outsider might think at first opinion, but Tom Harkin is, I find,
less typical of Iowa than Chuck Grassley.

How will Obama do against the others in NY/PA/CA/TX/IL etc etc?

I wish ALL the Democratic candidates would conserve their resources for contests
that land them delegates in Denver. I also wish that Iowa were a primary like the
others.
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annie1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 04:21 AM
Response to Reply #34
40. He'll take IL, he can close the gap in CA, he'll lose NY, TX and NM, and prob. PA, ....
Edited on Thu Jan-03-08 04:24 AM by annie1
but he'll win GA, SC, and now that FLorida and MI are out for the dems, no one can have those.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/georgia.html
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L84TEA Donating Member (668 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 12:09 AM
Response to Original message
35. not a chance...
it is gonna be

Edwards
Hillary
Biden
'
'
'

obama...
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Egnever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 04:09 AM
Response to Original message
39. I would like it if you were right
My gut tells me its not going to happen though.
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readmoreoften Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 04:51 AM
Response to Original message
41. Good lord I hope you're wrong, rug. I think it's going to be Edwards. /nt
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Andromeda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 05:04 AM
Response to Original message
42. It's possible, but anything's possible..
so I'm not even going to guess. My candidate is Hillary but I'll be happy if Edwards wins. If he does he's going to have to raise a lot more money if he wants remain competitive.

Iowa's not really a make or break state because it doesn't necessarily choose the person who will win the nomination. Tom Harkin won Iowa when Bill Clinton was running for president. Bill didn't even caucus in Iowa but he went on to win N.H.

Howard Dean was expected to win handily but he bombed and came in third instead. Other candidates like Gephardt won Iowa in 1988 and there have been some others.
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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 07:47 AM
Response to Original message
43. I am predicting Obama 33%, Edwards 29%, and the HRC 18%
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boston bean Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 07:48 AM
Response to Original message
44. ha
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sampsonblk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 08:00 AM
Response to Original message
45. Hillary
Obama's two-in-the-bush strategy sounds good. But I've seen it fail enough times not to put any faith in it. Not yet anyway.
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