2004 Iowa Entrance Poll: 79% were Democrats, 19% Independents

Zynx

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Wed Jan-02-08 09:41 PM
Original message

2004 Iowa Entrance Poll: 79% were Democrats, 19% Independents

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/IA/

40% Indies and 5% Republicans? Don't think so, particularly not with a competitive Republican caucus competing for moderate independents.

I don't believe in this Revolution nonsense from election to election. It's always garbage.

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TeamJordan23

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Wed Jan-02-08 09:42 PM
Response to Original message

1. I dont think they have ever seen the crowds like they have this year. nm

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Zynx

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Wed Jan-02-08 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #1

4. I remember some pretty damn big crowds back in 2004.

Also, that argument never seems to hold water.

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David Dunham

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Wed Jan-02-08 09:43 PM
Response to Original message

2. The DMR poll assumptions are nuts. Hillary wins.

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TeamJordan23

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Wed Jan-02-08 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. [self delete]

Edited on Wed Jan-02-08 09:45 PM by TeamJordan23

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Zynx

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Wed Jan-02-08 09:57 PM
Response to Reply #2

9. I don't know if she wins, but I think Obama's support is overstated.

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JDPriestly

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Wed Jan-02-08 09:46 PM
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5. Obama does not talk like he really believes his win is in the bag.

He sounds really annoyed and nervous.

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Bullet1987

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Wed Jan-02-08 09:47 PM
Response to Reply #5

6. I wouldn't be surprised if you had close to 30% Independent turnout..

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TeamJordan23

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Wed Jan-02-08 09:48 PM
Response to Reply #5

8. JDPriestly, can you back that up with some of his statements today or yesterday? nm

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TwilightZone

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Wed Jan-02-08 09:48 PM
Response to Original message

7. The DMR assumptions do seem optimistic, particularly the (I) numbers.

There doesn't seem to be any independent confirmation that Iowa is suddenly loaded with Independents.

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Zynx

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Wed Jan-02-08 10:05 PM
Response to Reply #7

10. I remember how we heard "anecdotal evidence" of a surge in turnout

in 2006 that would create an even bigger result than we got. It didn't happen. Granted it was a good deal higher than 1998 and somewhat higher than 2002, but it was hardly revolutionary.

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TwilightZone

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Wed Jan-02-08 10:08 PM
Response to Reply #10

11. Agreed. I just don't see the independents accounting for double the '04 rate.

Unless things have drastically changed, Iowa just doesn't have the number of independents it would require to double the '04 attendance.

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