ARG Iowa: Hillary 34%, Obama 25%, Edwards 21%...

I'm saving this one for a later "FU" and other blessings.

which hillarians won't get by
Iowan logic, that's the thing
as hillary posters have their last fling

Favorable to Hillary?

all swallowed on time, with proper doses.

Obviously some hillarians think that anyone who finds fault with their queen must be ill, eh? That explains a lot.

you ARE on meds.

It's just wrong...

:eyes: good thing no hillary supporter ever did that.

once you folks understand that, you will realize why so many democrats and progressives prefer others to your queen.

just saying.

Love the finger, by the way. Did you think of that yourself, or did your campaign contact suggest the stance?

I've always been uncomforatable with Obama for many reasons but I have to say the very worst thing about him are some of his supporters. And no, Hillary is not my pick. You're just plain obnoxious. You must be very young to think that helps your candidate at all.

and clearly, hillary is not. Biden, Dodd, Edwards, Richardson are all fine candidates, and any of them would serve our nation well. Yes, I am very young. 50 yrs young. And I am plain obnoxious. Especially to hillarians. I think that their attack on the intertubes sucks, I think that her hiring of anti-labor assholes like Penn, or anti-democratic process shitheels like Wolfson has sunk any chance of her winning. And for that I am grateful.

you POS.

and who came in second?

maybe you can run over a puppy or something too..

~

she could do well.

it is too close to call and the only poll that matters is the one tonight

...not all that much has changed since the Dec 31 thry Jan 2 poll.
You know something we don't, still?

That's nuts.

edit, if you mess up the shift key, 3% turns into #5!

in this caucus. Maybe not, it depends on the turn out.

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among women 38% to 24%, with John Edwards at 23%. Among men, Clinton is at 29%, Obama is at 26%, and Edwards is at 18%. 10 percentage points among the candidates could switch, with half (5 percentage points) coming from Clinton supporters.

For details, click on the R or D for each state in the column on the left under 2008 Presidential Polls.

It was not long ago a great wise man made a GREAT speech about His Dream.

...use unusually large sample sizes in their polling?

The larger the sample size taken in Iowa---the more likely it is that you are
talking with people who are not as politically engaged as most Iowans who
attend the caucuses. Many of them may not even be registered to vote.

If you randomly call a sampling of Iowans--the Hillary "inevitability" that was
perpetuated by the MSM, permeates these polls. In effect, Hillary gets a nice, little
bounce in these polls--that really is hot air.

These ARG polls are what they are. Large, random samples of Iowans that do not
accurately represent those who will show up on caucus night. There are three million
people in Iowa and roughly 170,000 will participate in the Dem caucuses. That group
of three million is highly different from the politically engaged 170,000.

Furthermore, if you randomly ask people if they are caucusing--many will say "yes" to avoid looking
apathetic or unintelligent. At this late in the game, if you aren't polling off of the
voter rolls or precinct lists of registered voters--it's not a good poll.

The most accurate polls right now are the internals being conducted by the campaigns, which
show Obama and Edwards trending upward and Hillary in a decline.

The Des Moines Register poll, which recently came out--polled registered Iowa voters who
say that they are highly likely to caucus. This is definitely a more accurate snapshot
than these large, random-sample ARG polls.

The Register poll showed Hillary declining from 26-23 with a period of 3 days.

not sure why.

:shrug: none of the other polls I've seen seem close to that.

odd that they are consistent pro clinton in their polling, in counterstream to other pollsters.

your "dream."

1) I am on the record as saying the finish will be 1) Obama 2) Edwards 3) Clinton

2) I analyze with my head and advocate and agitate with my heart...

3) ARG seems like a major outlier...

4) The caucus will make ARG into idiots or geniuses

5) Zogby plays a lot of games...He had Hilllary going from a four point lead to a seven point deficit in six or so days...That's just not plauisble...There were no major events to cause such a shift...

6) What I suspect Zogby did is change his methodology after the DMR poll and others started predicting a very different outcome...Now he gets to look like an hero...

So subject to wide daily variations if I am not missing something

It's based on the last two or three days... All prior results are thrown out... I just don't think this race has moved eleven points in six days without a major event... I think Zogby adjusted his model when he saw what other pollsters were findings... There's always talk among pollsters that occurs...


I want ARG to be right but I am afraid it isn't...

Nobody will take them seriously again if their results are as far off as they seem...

It provided a rolling breakout to it's poll and Hillary consistently decline for each two day sample. For the last two days of the poll she was in 3rd place.

might be that the polling shows the mainstream leanings of those who get their contest rankings from media perceptions. The funny thing is once you have activists casting the general perceptions to the winds and doing some choosing and voting of their own, then they can start sweeping aside this shallow perception and hence the polls. maybe. However I think the shallow stuff persists madly enough in the face of common sense to withstand primary "victories" and Convention bounce as well. They say "Hey maybe that guy has something after all." Then TV brain takes over again. Maybe the question is which poll will rank first after tonight? Last time the results were pretty horrible for media pundits, polls and campaigns as predictors because TV brain briefly shorted out in the heat of the real Iowa campaign.

What has everyone guessing(and don't let any winner tell you how smart they were all along) is who is turning out and in what organized form and in what mood to move to second choices. This makes Iowa potentially immune to media and polls- which is a good thing except for the nerves. The good news for Hillary actually is- win or not- that she has the overall national strength still, much as her peak and that Iowa will only destroy her is the people massively start defecting from certain shaken premises.

Here is where the guessing comes in and it has to be very simple. The reasons for Hillary's acceptance is a self-fulfilling thing added to Clinton legacy and presumption of victory. Those things are dangerously entwined to overshadow her own personal gifts with the abyss of well known negativities to fall into. You will well know when she is facing that abyss as she is NOT facing it now, and you won't need the polls necessarily to tell you which way the wind is blowing. You'll probably be hearing from marginally knowledgeably acquaintances even if they assume Hillary will win anyway. These polls sound crazy because the whole situation is crazy. It would be nice to know that each candidate is aware of this nutty, skewed reality. Maybe they are too into it to see it. I really expect Hillary to go on strong after Iowa, but I would not be surprised either if some public opinion trigger fires a fatal shot into the power. The real test is in the strength of the general public opinion after Iowa.

We will shortly learn if a loss for Hillary in Iowa should it happen moves the national numbers where she leads by twenty or so points...At some point Obama or Edwards need to kove those national numbers since eventually ever Democrat in the nation gets a say over who will be the nominee...

and the polls can tweak that slowly too. The burden falls on the swiftly approaching primaries and THEIR voters facing doubt and challenge before any long term effect really takes noticeable hold. It may then be all over, which, with a confused and depressed dem electorate, is all the GOP could wish for.

Especially Iowa polls? I mean, come the hell on, we have 12 hours to wait to see actual results. I am a Clinton supporter, and even based on this poll I say the polls are worthless in a caucus state.

We'll all know in 12 hours.

Either will do for me. I don't want Hilary at all

Obama doesn't do a thing for me and frankly I think he's the only dem sure to lose in November.

they've been way off from all the others, so if this is all you have...

we do have one. Obama and edwards will be like teddy bears if either one is our nominee. They will be like the great fighters in the mold of gore and kerry. uh huh...Obama said there would be no more stolen elections and the last time i heard that it was from kerry/edwards in 04, and boy they sure fought hard didn't they? NOT! The only fighter we have that will not take any crap from the right is HRC. FOLKS YOU ASKED FOR A BEAR IN THE 08 ELECTIONS AND IN HRC WE HAVE A GRIZZLEY.....

Kick for that comment.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=2580874&mesg_id=2580874

seems as though your fighter is throwing in the towel prematurely.

MOE 3.3% from 12/30-1/2.

WOuld be my guess

and they haven't been very impressive.

I think caucuses are very difficult to gauge though.