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Senior Clinton Campaign Source: If democrats turn out, she will win

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Herman Munster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 06:29 PM
Original message
Senior Clinton Campaign Source: If democrats turn out, she will win
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/caucus_clinton_revises_turnout.php

** Hillary Clinton's team has revised its turnout model. The same senior campaign source who projected a turnout of 140,000 voters is now predicting that 150,000 voters will show, and says that, according to the turnout model the campaign is employing, Clinton will finish a strong first on the strength of turnout from Democrats. Two days ago, Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod, told me that the Obama turnout model assumed about 150-155,000 people too. Clearly, the more independents who turn out, the better for Obama. The more Democrats -- the more _new_ Democrats -- the better for Hillary Clinton. An Edwards aide said the campaign predicts that 135-140,000 Dems will caucus.

And yes -- Dems -- they'll be Dems by the beginning of the caucus, because independents and Republicans will be forced to register as Democrats before they can participate.

Some turnout facts:

** 122,193 Democrats turned out in 2004.

** The 2006 primary election turned out 184,000 Democrats.

** Don't automatically assume that high turnout helps Barack Obama or assume that an increase in turnout comes from independents. Democrats, too, could caucus in record numbers, which helps the two candidates who are banking on them: Edwards and Clinton.

** There were approximately 500,000 Dems on the voter file who did not caucus in 2000 or 2004. There are 600,000 independents who tend to have weak vote history, especially in primaries.

** 17,000 to 22,000 independents became Democrats and caucused in 2004, according to estimates.

** About 1,500 Republicans turned out.


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hedgehog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 06:32 PM
Response to Original message
1. You know, in about 3 or 4 hours, all this speculation and spin will be
meaningless. The 2008 Election starts now.
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gaiilonfong Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 06:34 PM
Response to Original message
2. The new Wolfson/Rove meme
NO SALE.
What they are trying to say that Democrats aren't voting for Obama....NONSENSE!
They are pathetic.

NO MORE Bushies and Clintons!
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David Dunham Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 06:56 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. This is why Obama will lose all the Dem-only primaries.
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Cameron27 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 06:58 PM
Response to Original message
4. I think she's right,
without indy's or republicans voting in large numbers, she wins.
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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. She used to think she would win Iowa. did you think she was right then, too?
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Sulawesi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 07:55 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Why don't we just wait, this line that Obama can't win among Dems is all spin until a vote is cast..
...and then it will be used as a spin if she loses...
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earthlover Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-03-08 07:28 PM
Response to Original message
6. Hillary does best among the Democrats who banded together and were not enough to win in the past
Obama appeals to the types of voters we need, the independents, who will turn a Democratic defeat into a Democratic transformational victory
Do we want more of the same playing catch-up to the Republicans? I say that is not enough! We need to win big! Gobama!
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