Overall, I'm feeling pretty good today. Dems are energized and Republicans are in turmoil.

After nearly a year of campaigning, real live voters finally had the chance to weigh in. And overall, I think voters sent a message that is very good for Democrats. Obviously, the results were better for some Democrats than others -- that is the nature of elections. But for the party as a whole, I think things look good for our chances in November.

To Barack Obama and his supporters, I offer a hearty congratulations for a hard-fought victory. The DU Administrators are officially neutral in the Democratic primary, and we will continue to be neutral throughout this process. But I do not see anything wrong with giving credit where it is due. Senator Obama's fairly comfortable win -- and his solid showing among independents -- has put to rest any concerns I had in my mind about his electability should he be our eventual nominee. And I thought his speech last night was fantastic.

Obviously, the results were a disappointment for the committed supporters of other Democratic candidates. John Edwards and Hillary Clinton come out of Iowa in a virtual tie, but that tie is for second place -- where neither of them hoped to be right now. But it's still early, each of them pulled in a solid 30%, and both are well positioned to keep fighting. If there were any doubts before Iowa, I think it is now safe to say that this is a three-person race. In the end it's going to be Obama, Edwards, or Clinton. I think all three of these candidates would serve our party -- and our country -- well in the general election.

But no matter which Democratic candidate you support, here are a couple things that we can all feel good about:

The Republicans are in disarray

I don't think the Republican results could have possibly been better for Democrats. The man who won is a virtually unknown religious extremist whose social views are way outside the mainstream of this country, whose record of tax-raising is anathema to the establishment of his own party, and who has only $2 million left in the bank. Huckabee is almost certainly not going to win. It might have been possible in the past, when the primary schedule was spread out over many months. But this year the schedule is so front-loaded that even if he ekes out a few wins in early primaries, his lack of money will likely kill him on Super Tuesday (February 5). If we're lucky, Huckabee can be a thorn in the sides of the better-known and better-funded candidates like Romney, Giuliani, and McCain. And if we're really lucky, Huckabee's eventual loss to the better-funded-but-theologically-questionable candidates will antagonize the Republicans' evangelical base so much that they sit out the general election.

A lot more people caucused for Democrats than Republicans last night. A LOT.

If I were a Republican, here is the factoid that would make me lie awake at night: Yesterday, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/04/us/politics/04elect.html">239,000 people showed up to caucus for the Democratic candidates (compared to 125,000 in 2004), while only http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/04/us/politics/04elect.html">108,000 showed up to caucus for Republicans -- in a solid purple state that went narrowly for Bush in 2004. In short: A state that was evenly split between Ds and Rs three years ago is now going two-to-one for Democrats. BOOM! Furthermore, independents seem to be trending Democratic: They made up 20% of caucus-goers on the (much larger) Democratic side, compared with only 13% on the (much smaller) Republican side. By my calculations, that would mean approximately 48,000 independents caucused with the Democrats, while only 14,000 caucused with the Republicans. Independents went Democratic by nearly 3.5-to-1.

All in all, I think it's a good day to be a Democrat. I am feeling energized and excited. No doubt, it's going to be a really intense month-or-two. There will be winners and losers. There will be fighting and bad feeling and sore winners and sore losers. But it's going to be a heck of a ride and I intend to enjoy it.

GO DEMS!

:)

It feels very different than 2000 and 2004--the GOPers just don't have a unifying figure, or a coherent vision. Their best bet is a guy who's 71 years old and wants us to be in Iraq for 100 years. I don't see a way they can win.

country! The turnout was super....kudos to all those who participated in the caucus.

dems are jazzed, indies are breaking for dems, and repubs are demoralized, conflicted and confused. NH should be interesting because of the large number of indies, many of them with a liberatarian streak. How will they break with Paul, McCain and Obama? Tune in next Tuesday.

:thumbsup:

the stark differences between the R's and the D's were so clearly highlighted. :-)

I'm still undecided, because for me our field is a plethora of positives, unlike the nothing but negatives the R candidates offer their constituency.

Thanks for DU, Skinner, Elad and EarlG and thanks to the tireless mods. I can't think of a better place to be, online, than right here, right now.
MKJ

It's looking GREAT for Democrats!! :applause:

his organization's organization. Dems **need** to get their act together.
Hillary's machine seems to be simply acting out a copy of the Rove playbook- stuffing the ball room with non- Iowans acting the parts of excited locals.. I am sick of that crap.

one of them has got to get elected in November!

If Obama keeps this up he might save the SS America from going the way of the Titanic.

I felt very much the same way - the BIG picture was very favorable for Democrats. I hope this sort of positive energy continues throughout the primary season. NH is also a state that allows independents to vote in either primary and should give us another indication of where people are leaning since it's still a wide-open race on both sides of the aisle. NH joining the purple states recently makes this an interesting referendum on the party's broader appeal for the general election. I predict the Dems will do well with the independents here too.

made me think differently about a few things I didn't "see" last night.

Especially after hearing several republicans in my office moaning about how much they don't like him. :)

co-workers here this morning!! I practically can't control my schoolgirl giddyness!! :rofl:

:rofl:

Everyone who talks politics here knows my views, and we discussed the candidates at our Christmas lunch thing... hehehehe... I came in ready to gloat!

Told one of them that watching those results come in was like a hug from baby Jesus. :7

I would have loved to see the look on their faces when you said that!

first, whoever takes office will have an ungodly mess to clean up thanks to the current incumbents . . . trying to clean up said mess must include prosecuting those who created it by flagrantly and repeatedly violating the Constitution, U.S. law, and international law . . .

and second, unless we elect a Democrat willing to address THE single most important issue -- the issue underlying all others -- change will be incremental and mostly of the window dressing variety . . . that issue, of course, is corporate influence and control in government . . . and the only person addressing that issue is John Edwards . . .

Go DEMS!

:)

made me like the Iowans a lot! I thought about how decent these people are and how much I would like to meet them!

millions of independents and republicans will be seriously looking at our candidates, and (I hope)finding ones they can comfortably support. The democrats are high energy, and that pulls people in as well. I do agree that we are in an excellent position now.

Thank you, Skinner.

anxious to see to the total raw numbers for Dems vs. Repugs, given Iowa's status as a swing state.

In my precinct location last evening, while waiting for the proceedings to begin, I took a break to use the restroom and had to work my way backwards through a HUGE line of people waiting to register for the caucus - just seeing this level of enthusiasm gave me the kind of feeling inside I haven't experienced since seeing the results come in on Election Night 2006!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=2591075&mesg_id=2591075

I'm telling people, this isn't as crazy as it sounds on the surface. It's far crazier!

Indeed it is! :toast:

Those figures are strong enough that they may be impossible to be overcome by tainted voting machines.

Our side had historical turnouts all over the state.

Each of our top three out polled the GOP's top vote getter.

I think the turnout in Iowa is just another point of reference that is part of the same mood of the electorate that was demonstrated in '06.

Americans are turning to the Democratic Party and are repelled by the GOP.

K&R

I'm wondering if many repubs crossed over to the Dem caucus to vote for "anyone but Hillary"? Is that possible? Seems like it could be the case, since twice as many folks voted for Dem candidates than repubs.

Like I said, I'm pretty much a phrigndumass when it comes to caucuses, so I could very well be wrong. (Let the spitwads fly, I won't mind)

:hi:

Nice place. I particularly like the decor on the walls and the placement of the furniture ...

to change the outcome.

I wondered that myself - who's voting to try and muck up the works - sleazy suspicious mind that I have.

But I choose to believe that Skinner's correct here. At the very LEAST, Dems are on a high and the GOP is in the dumps. As it should be, IMO. About time they had their turn in the barrel. I hope it's a long one. They have to be held down, and held back, for a substantial amount of time - time enough for us to clean up all their messes and to fix everything they've broken. Runaway trains take miles to stop once the brakes are engaged. I'd hope to see them set back for a generation, AT LEAST a decade or preferably TWO, with so much lost ground they may never make it all up. SOME DUer here (and I apologize for not remembering whom - he or she deserves credit) long ago posted about how vital and urgent it was (and still is) for the bad guys to "get the snot beaten out of them" - that is, beaten so badly they have to go back to the drawing board; beaten so badly that they're finally forced to recognize that the evangelical strangle-hold is a dead end for them and break it permanently.

They came in, in 2001, accusing the outgoing Clintons of trashing Air Force One and the Executive Office building and all those allegedly missing "w" keys on various keyboards. That whole thing turned out to be a LIE - a lie for which ari fleischer never apologized or offered a solid correction. In THIS case, the trashing and mayhem has been VERY real and VERY omnipresent. It's everywhere. They've fucked with EVERYTHING. Broken as much as they could reach with their greedy, ham-handed hands. No tall tales or exaggerations or story embroidery necessary. It's already a very sad fact. By NEXT January, who knows what will be left - and in what shape?

I think the turnout numbers are significant, and telling (especially since they denote a great political migration of independents toward our side. AND it's a damned good omen!

:toast: :party: :patriot:

I'm liking the omen, too. I guess I'm just trying to pinch myself to see if this is real, what with everything that's happened since the Contract with (against?) America thing in '94.

"By NEXT January, who knows what will be left - and in what shape?" -- My guess is there'll be only empty shredders left! No spare change left in the sofas, either.

:dunce:

AFTER that win, would be to file papers, or a lawsuit or SOMETHING (not sure of the proper mechanism here) to PUT THEM ON NOTICE, PUBLICLY, that NOTHING else is to be touched or destroyed or taken out or "lost." NOTHING.

And if they do, anyway (probably what will happen, or at least they'll try some of it), there will have been a PUBLIC NOTIFICATION, on which we can prosecute.

A good night for the democrats all around!

And even though I supported Edwards in my caucus, I do extend a hearty congratulations to Senator Obama and his supporters. I still want to see JRE get the nomination, but our party could do a lot worse than Obama.

We are surely poised to take the presidency, but remember two things:

1. That could change at any second. I don't know how many times I've seen a sure thing for democrats disappear, due to either republican slime or our own lackluster nominees.

2. The presidency is not enough. We need more of congress too, especially the senate. That's all about turnout, which we seem to have had in spades last night, but it's more about democratic turnout than it is about independents voting democrat.

Lastly, a big thank-you to all the young voters who turned out last night to support Senator Obama. So many times we've heard "it will all come down to the youth vote" only to have young people decide that they have someplace better to be on election day. Well, not this time. You may not have necessarily supported my top candidate, but I appreciate you nonetheless. Please come out to support even non-Obama candidates should the need to do so arise.

:evilgrin:

GD + GD-P...jeez smells like the "Primary Wars of 2004"

My sig line speaketh

This is what I can't get over, from Obama's book -- with my comments in parentheses and in red:



I've been following presidential races since 1972 and I don't recall a Democratic Presidential nominee ever trashing the Democratic Party from the right like that. Can anyone else? It seems to me that a lot of what he's saying here are Republican talking points.

Maybe I'm not looking at this the right way.

Maybe I missed Obama saying something since he wrote these words that indicates that he doesn't really believe them.

Or maybe even if he didn't say so, maybe he really doesn't feel this way about liberals, but simply uses rhetoric like this to position himself to the center, which he feels he needs to do to win.

But I have to say that, as a liberal, I find these words insulting. And although I will certainly vote for him if he is the nominee, since he appears to be a far better choice than whoever wins the Republican nomination, I'm not at all sure that an Obama presidency will be a great or even a good thing for liberal/progressive Democrats -- or for a lot of people in our country.

Thanks for your post, with its handy summary of quotes, which I will reference as needed. I, too, have felt insulted by Obama's vitriol towards the Left, and I haven't been all that impressed with his Senate votes, either. But, like you, I will vote for him in the general if he gets the nom. The worst Dem (and no, I still don't think he's our worst Dem) is still better than the best Repub, IMO. I wouldn't vote for a Republican for dog catcher!

Thanks for all your journal entries as well. I look forward to your voice of reason and your well-researched posts whenever I log onto DU! :hi:

:hi:

This is just horrifying. I would like to send this to my friends, but I need sources, dates of speeches, etc. Do you happen to have them?

The Audacity of Hope
http://www.randomhouse.com/catalog/display.pperl?isbn=9780307237699

I don't have the page number because I lent the book to a friend of mine from North Carolina, but the quotes are from the first chapter or two or the introduction of the book.

Here is some more of what I had to say on the subject from a post I did last year:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=298091

:thumbsup: We did good!

:beer:

Dems rock!

And you're right, the results for our party last night were fantastic! The Dems have a lot to be happy about right now. :)

That's no small thing.

:thumbsup:

:hi:

Hekate

:woohoo:

It makes me think that there's light at the end of the tunnel.

:hi:

I am hopeful for the first time in a long time.

:dem:

Independents went Democratic by nearly 3.5-to-1!

The R's are screwed! It's in the Math.

But it does look really good for the Democratic party this year. 7 years of Bush has been horrific and the country knows it.

RUN JOHN RUN

That really puts things in perspective.

The vast right wing conspiracy is freaking out. For 16 years they've wanted to see Hillary lose one and they finally get it, but the VRWC can't enjoy it. Its not just Huckabee, Its John McCain too. The VRWC is crumbling, with invaders coming from two directions. Republicans factions are fighting with each other and its getting meaner.

We are at the dawn of a great new era of laughs.

With Fred Thompson in the background to scare them into voting for the rest.

As Mr. Burns would say, "Excellent."

Your post articulates exactly what I am feeling today.

Thank you for saying this!

It's a day to be proud, not to rip each other apart.

Please, let us have just ONE day of celebration and appreciation for our front runners. These are good people. Trust them.

Please don't take the republican party for granted. Lets not forget they just stacked the supreme court, have private a military and have from what I have seen, been known to vote cage. Please make sure to get out there and vote and demand that you get a recorded copy of it.

Wouldn't that be a twist?

:evilgrin:

;-)

even though the Register itself had questioned its results because it showed so many Independents and even some Republicans heading to caucus. Now we know that their poll was correct.

Change is in the wind.

I do.

Edited to add that my nick stands for TAKE BACK YOUR GOVERNMENT!

was that Romney didnt win. I have always felt he was the GOPs best hope. If Hucksterbee is their guy - we might win all 50 states.

Young voters have been notorious for helping but then not showing up to cast a vote. Not this time.

57% of Obama's support came from caucus goers under 30.

22% of Dem caucus goers were under 30.

80% of young caucus goers went to Dem caucuses.



(Caution: This is a link to a PAC! Beware! Wear gloves before clicking!)

http://www.youngvoterpac.org/

..don't go getting Obama Victory T-shirts just yet.

Two obvious factors are being ignored. One is that a substantial portion of Iowa's population resides in towns on the Illinois border. These people are more familiar with Obama and are more inclined to vote for the familiar. Also, while I love that the numbers that showed up for the caucuses were so strong, keep in mind that the wacky caucus rules allowing Republicans and indys to participate likely attracted Hillary haters in droves.

As for Huckabee, there is a much bigger picture. We need to be aware of this picture, because it will ultimately shape the dynamic of how difficult this election will actually be for us.

For the last 27 years, the Republic party has been a party predominantly driven by white males who are pro-tax cut, pro-wealth, anti-union, anti-gun control, anti-minority, anti-the concept of government assistance to anyone but the wealthy; conservative Christians and Evangelicals had been brought along for the ride because of their disgust with the aftermath of the Warren court. It is really important to note that, during the period from 80-08, they have been rewarded with very little of substance for their steadfast support. Roe is still the law of the land; prayer has not been returned to public school; they have not received vouchers or tax credits for sending their kids to private school; neither pornography nor birth control have been banned or seriously controlled; and they still have to endure fights over the displays of their religious symbols in the public square (nativity scenes, etc.)

January 3rd 2008 will be noted as the day that Evangelicals became the principal drivers of the Republic party. Make no mistake about it, these social conservatives are politically organized (largely due to years of fighting Roe), they vote en bloc, and they will advance Huckabee to the nomination. They have delivered the message, loud and clear, that if you are not part of their agenda, you won't get nominated. This bodes badly for Romney (a member of LDS -- a faith viewed as a cult by Evangelicals), Giuliani (whose off the court antics make Bill Clinton look like a choirboy), and McCain (who has not been a consistent, stalwart supporter or the Evangelical agenda, despite his steadfast opposition to abortion).

I see two possibilities at this point. One is that we face Huckabee, along with his well oiled Evangelical political machine.

The other possibility is that non-Evangelicals rally around McCain (big name, known quantity); McCain poses challenges because of his appeal to independents and certain Democrats. If McCain gets the nod, look for Joe "I'm an independent, not a Republican" Liberman to get a strong look for VP.