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Do the newest NH polls here mean ANYTHING???

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musicblind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 04:40 PM
Original message
Do the newest NH polls here mean ANYTHING???
The newest polls have Clinton leading (the newest was done Jan 2nd to Jan 3rd which was BEFORE fall out from the primary). The numbers were: Clinton 37 Obama 25 and Edwards 15.

BUT, are these numbers completely worthless because of Iowa, or is there some hope for Clinton? Is it true that Iowa always gives a 10 point boost in NH?


Link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html
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TwilightGardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 04:40 PM
Response to Original message
1. Wait and see--too soon to see if a bump happens for Obama.
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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 04:41 PM
Response to Original message
2. I'm not betting on anything.
NH did vote for Sununu so I don't know what they'll do.
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Kucinich4America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 04:42 PM
Response to Original message
3. How many polls had Clinton leading Iowa?
I think that's your answer.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 04:42 PM
Response to Original message
4. Here's a primer on IA's effect on NH
http://www.observer.com/2008/brief-history-iowa-new-hampshire-bounce
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THUNDER HANDS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 04:42 PM
Response to Original message
5. I think tomorrow's polling will indicate
Obama and Clinton are tied at 31 and Edwards with 16.

Then by Monday you're going to see Obama with 35 and Cliton with 27.

Momentum, baby.
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athena Donating Member (771 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. That is a beautiful quote.
Edited on Fri Jan-04-08 05:02 PM by athena
"I'm asking you to believe. Not just in my ability to bring about real change in Washington ... I'm asking you to believe in yours."
-- Barack Obama

Thanks for posting it.
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 04:46 PM
Response to Original message
6. You can take those numbers and add 10% to Obama, add 5% to Edwards, and subtract 5% from Hillary for
a rough estimate of where everyone is at going into the debate.

So if you use the latest Zogby poll as a baseline, that puts the candidates here after adjustment:

Obama 36%, Hillary 27%, Edwards 25%
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musicblind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 04:49 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. oh dear
ouch, that's pretty rough? so that means that Clinton and Edwards have pretty much zero chance in NH? Doesn't seem very exciting, but if it's true, it's true ...
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. I wouldn't say zero chance. If Obama has a bad debate performance, if Michael Moore endorses Edwards
if the Hillary launches an effective attack -- any of those kind of things could change the momentum. Or Obama's bump could be bigger or smaller than 10% (Kerry got a bigger bump, Gore got a smaller bump). No one knows if the independents will show up for Obama, McCain, or Paul. It's all just an estimate, but I think it would be tough to dispute that Obama has set up the expectation that he's going to win.
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DaLittle Kitty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 05:23 PM
Response to Reply #7
12. Need another Second for Edwards and a Third for Cliton and the She is History!
Details to follow in near future.
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. If Edwards continues to beat Hillary, he's fine even if he doesn't beat Obama until Steroid Tuesday
If Edwards continues to come in second, Steroid Tuesday will become a referendum on who's vision of change is better. I like that contest.
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OHdem10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 04:54 PM
Response to Original message
8. Wait and see. Last night it was explained that if and when
a bump occurs it takes a few days.
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DaLittle Kitty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. Debate in NH tomorrow Will Take Toll on Obama, Edwards Will Shine AGAIN W/ Group of 4 Only!
Look for Obama issues of Debate INCOMPETENCE! Should be Very Evident tomorrow! Edwards WIN by virtue of resources expended against him by Clinton and Obama better than 5:1
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JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 05:04 PM
Response to Original message
10. not totally because if she is leading by a very large amount
Obama's Iowa bounce may not be enough. but if the numbers were close it could help Obama come out ahead. so i think they do matter a little bit.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-04-08 05:36 PM
Response to Original message
14. They act as a baseline to gauge any bounce from Iowa...nt
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