My prediction for NH: Obama 41%, Hillary 35%, Edwards 22%, Richardson 2%

Colobo

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:27 AM
Original message

My prediction for NH: Obama 41%, Hillary 35%, Edwards 22%, Richardson 2%

What's yours?

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Dawgs

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:31 AM
Response to Original message

1. Obama 43%, Hillary 34%, Edwards 22%, Richardson 1%

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MadBadger

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:34 AM
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2. Katz, dont be shocked if Edwards moves ahead of Clinton

I think he does indeed have momentum as well, and I think she is crashing. Though I think she will still get second:

1.Obama 40%
2.Clinton 28%
3.Edwards 27%
4.Richardson 3%
5.Kucinich 2%

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Colobo

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #2

3. I hope it happens.

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SheilaT

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:52 AM
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4. Why does everyone making the predictions

abut NH assume Clinton will suddenly sprint ahead of Edwards? I don't get that.

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MadBadger

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:54 AM
Response to Reply #4

5. Suddenly sprint ahead of Edwards?

Shes always been ahead of Edwards and before Iowa, was always leading there.

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SheilaT

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Sun Jan-06-08 01:07 PM
Response to Reply #5

6. Did the results from Iowa

change while I wasn't paying attention? I thought Edwards came in slightly ahead of her.

It does seem as though occasionally reality shifts around me. Maybe this is another of those times.

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RoadRage

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Sun Jan-06-08 01:08 PM
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7. Obama 35; Edwards 32; Clinton 31 - NT

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hayu_lol

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Sun Jan-06-08 01:12 PM
Response to Reply #7

9. Why does everyone seem to feel(at least those who do)that Hillary...

will finish behind Edwards...could very easily be the other way. Further, who says that middle of America Obama(almost a favorite son in Iowa)will take the top spot?

Up for grabs for the voters in our first numerical count election.

Indies may select for NH by the way.

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RoadRage

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Sun Jan-06-08 01:26 PM
Response to Reply #9

10. Because I really think that people want to be on a "winning" team..

And I think a lot of Clinton supporters see the momentum shift.

Ohh.. and he's up in almost all of the polls, i'm not pulling that number out of my Butt!

They were virtually neck & neck in the Iowa Polls - and Obama beat clinton by 9%. He's leading the polls in NH right now.. so I don't see how it's a stretch to have him win.

Also, I go back to the fact that Obama has a HUGE number of younger (Gen X & Gen Y) voters like myself. We all have cellphones. We do not get polled because we have cell phones. That right there is a bump that is totally unaccounted for (and I think was part of the surprise in Iowa).

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suston96

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Sun Jan-06-08 01:11 PM
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8. Good prediction. I may even agree with it. But one question.....

How do they split the delegates in New Hampshire? It's not a winner take all state, I believe. Anything like Iowa?

Where Obama beat Hillary by 10% and got only one extra delegate for his "huge victory"? Obama 16, Hillary 15, Edwards 14?

So how do they do it in New Hampshire? Anybody know?

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