Current Intrade prices for the nomination: Obama 60.5, Clinton 37.5, Edwards 2.1, Richardson 0.2

Occam Bandage

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:20 PM
Original message

Current Intrade prices for the nomination: Obama 60.5, Clinton 37.5, Edwards 2.1, Richardson 0.2

Obama up eight, Clinton down 9, Edwards steady.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=177134

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creeksneakers2

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:22 PM
Response to Original message

1. Edwards should be at zero

How does one go about collecting the hard earned from those who are betting 2.1?

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jenmito

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:29 PM
Response to Reply #1

3. Even Al Gore is at 1.1...

so Edwards can brag that he has nearly double the chance of someone who's not in the race! :D

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creeksneakers2

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #3

17. ROFL!

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jenmito

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Sun Jan-06-08 05:01 PM
Response to Reply #17

18. Hey-Richardson bragged about being in the "top 4" in Iowa..

Edited on Sun Jan-06-08 05:02 PM by jenmito

I guess it's all ho you look at things. :D

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The_Casual_Observer

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:27 PM
Response to Original message

2. At least we know how the adolescent & role playing community leans now.

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Occam Bandage

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #2

5. Nah. Ron Paul's only at 4.0. They have

Edited on Sun Jan-06-08 03:31 PM by Occam Bandage

McCain 34, Ghoul 31, Huck 15, Romney 12. I think that's fair. And besides, before Iowa, Obama was lagging badly. This isn't just a popularity thing; people have real money riding on it.

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LostinVA

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #2

7. hahaha

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jenmito

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #2

8. They almost always get it right.

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Jai4WKC08

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Sun Jan-06-08 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #8

20. They almost always get it right... eventually

They were betting heavy on Hillary just a couple weeks ago.

All they do is anticipate the trends. If the trend changes, so will the odds.

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Occam Bandage

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Sun Jan-06-08 07:08 PM
Response to Reply #20

21. Right. They're more a gauge of current opinion than they are psychic.

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jenmito

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:30 PM
Response to Original message

4. Before he won Iowa, Obama was at 24 and Hillary was at 66.

How quickly things change! :D

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Quixote1818

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:31 PM
Response to Original message

6. Richardson is way too high at 0.2

Is that based on a scenario of Edwards, Obama and Clinton all dying of heart attacks in the next few months?

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jenmito

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #6

9. Al Gore, who's not running, is at 1.1.

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Occam Bandage

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #9

10. I think in both, they're hoping for a brokered convention that gets deadlocked.

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jenmito

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #10

14. That must be it.

:hi:

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Carrieyazel

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #6

15. Nice attack on Richardson, but 0.2 is a very small number, much less than 1 percent

I'm glad Richardson is still in the race; when one of our Senators loses next November, we'll wish we had nominated him. But the media and the celebrity culture wouldn't give him a chance.

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Joe Chi Minh

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:37 PM
Response to Original message

11. I don't know if you can vote online with British bookies, but you can get what seem to me

great prices about Edwards ending up as Dem candidate, and President. Last time I looked, the best were 7s and 25s, respectively. The 25s for President, with Ladbrokes.

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Occam Bandage

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #11

13. If you believe in Edwards, either Intrade or Ladbrokes would be a good opportunity.

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Joe Chi Minh

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #13

16. In think so. I'll be taking 39s with Betfair on Edwards in the NH Primary, too.

I know the bookies are like the polls, heavily establishment biased, and intent on influencing people's expectations by the respective odds they offer on the victory of the respective candidates. They got out of jail free in 2000 and 2004, basically because the Republicans avoided going to jail, and the respective results being either ordained by the Supremes or simply standing!
In 2000, if I remember correctly I won, anyway, on the basis of the total votes going to Gore.

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Occam Bandage

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Sun Jan-06-08 03:37 PM
Response to Original message

12. kick

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AtomicKitten

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Sun Jan-06-08 05:05 PM
Response to Original message

19. Chris Mathews' panel today voted 12:1 that Obama will get the nod.

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jenmito

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Sun Jan-06-08 09:44 PM
Response to Reply #19

22. You mean 12-0!!! I couldn't believe it!

But I liked the sound of it! :hi:

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AtomicKitten

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Sun Jan-06-08 09:50 PM
Response to Reply #22

23. yep -- typo, my bad

I definitely like the sound of 12:0.

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jenmito

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:29 PM
Response to Reply #23

24. No problemo! I just wanted to make it unanimous!

Did you see the LATEST intrade numbers? Hillary's down to 33 to win the nomination while Obama's at 60.2. And in NH, Obama's at 87 to Hillary's 10!

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AtomicKitten

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:34 PM
Response to Reply #24

25. Oh, yeah! He now has a double-digit lead in NH.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/06/obama_takes_the_lead_in_nh.html

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jenmito

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Sun Jan-06-08 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #25

26. That's GREAT!

I wonder if Hillary's new strategy of answering questions for hours will help her. I saw she had a crowd today with overflow, but I know Obama's crowds had CRAZY overflow with every event! :hi:

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