Off the fence. Go Hillary.

Strong second place is all she needs.

Yeah, I'm for Hillary, now.

God help me.

No, they haven't.

If Hillary loses by less than 10 points, she can plausibly claim a victory.

It's a doozy.

God help me were my first words too !!

Yea Go Clinton!!!

Well, I already knew that. :P

Confess.

I'm just a love bunny.

Nice logo.

:P

Is that a strong endorsement?

nt

I don't think she needs a win, just to do better than the media is expecting (which is a loss of about 10%).

Edwards, on the other hand, has to have a good showing or the money/support is going to dry up before Feb-5.

she just needs to come in second. It's gravy that she is kicking Edwards (Mr I won in Ia too) ass.... him and his chanting Naderites at the polling places. Lord what an ugly bunch, protesting at polling places....

You need to study up on your geography. I'd say it was Mittens backyard.
NYS has several states between it and NH. Ah! but they are both in NE.

They only share a first name... really.

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/01/07/clinton/index.html?source=rss&aim=/politics/war_room

There are some big "ifs" in it, but it makes the race seem a little less "over" than many assume it to be.

Can you summarize? Did they talk about the democrat only primary states?

A little more than a summary. :)

(snip)

Could it work? Blogger Chris Bowers thinks so. While back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire would provide Obama with a massive amount of momentum, they don't offer much in terms of delegates. Obama picked up 16 delegates in Iowa, just one more than Clinton did, and there are only 22 more up for grabs in the New Hampshire primary. Even if Obama won every won of those -- he won't -- Clinton would still enjoy a substantial delegate lead over him because she has the support of so many of the Democratic Party's superdelegates, elected officials and other party insiders who choose for themselves how to vote at the party's convention.

Yes, the superdelegate breakdown could tilt toward Obama if he comes out of New Hampshire looking like the candidate to beat. But no matter what happens in New Hampshire, Democratic voters in Michigan will deliver a Cadillac full of delegates for Clinton on Jan. 15. Neither Obama nor John Edwards nor Bill Richardson is on the ballot in Michigan -- all three withdrew after the state bucked the DNC and moved up its primary -- leaving virtually all of the state's 128 delegates to Clinton. So far, the DNC is saying publicly that it won't seat Michigan's delegates at the convention. Bowers says there's no way the DNC won't cave on that one. If he's right about that, Clinton will enjoy a fairly massive delegate advantage by the time Florida votes on Jan. 29, and she still enjoys a huge lead in the polls there.

Then there's Feb. 5, or Super-Duper Tuesday, where the slate of states in play currently favors Clinton. As Bowers notes, Clinton now has "oversized leads" in Arkansas, Connecticut, New Jersey and New York. She also holds a big lead in California. If those leads hold -- and if the DNC seats the delegates from Michigan and Florida -- Clinton comes out on top no matter what happens anywhere else. Bowers does the math: "Collectively, Clinton's advantage in Super Delegates, Michigan, and February 5th home states provides her with roughly a 500 delegate advantage on Obama. If she were to also win Florida and California, which combine for 555 pledged delegates, it would be impossible for Obama to be ahead on delegates after February 5th. He could win every other state between now and February 6th, and never make up that sort of delegate deficit."

The key caveat: If Obama looks like a winner after New Hampshire and then again in South Carolina, the undecided superdelegates as well as the voters in all those states where Clinton leads now could move hard away from her. Politics isn't exactly like baseball, and sometimes it's not just about the math. Yes, you can go down by a few runs in the first inning and make them up again in the ninth -- or even in the 29th -- but only if your team hasn't lost heart and stopped swinging by the time you get there.

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/01/07/clinton/index.html?source=rss&aim=/politics/war_room

I've been watching the polls re: her dem voter support and it holds well, which is another bright spot. So I'm curious about the states that have closed primaries.

Most of the NH polls didn't differentiate, but one that did - the Marist poll - showed Hillary ahead with Democrats 36-30, even though Obama was ahead 36-28 overall.

That made me wonder if she'll be more likely to hold her leads in other states where only Democrats are involved in the process.

Obama was just +1 with Dems (over Hillary) when Iowa was all said and done.

Officially, I'm undecided (my primary is in March), but after the past couple weeks and the way she's been treated in the media and here, I'd like to see her win just to see a few heads explode.

Not nice, I know, but my goodness, this place can be nutsy.

I started researching her more thoroughly, and when I decided to move away from JE (after his parsing attack ) she was my next choice. I found the more digging I did...the more she makes perfect sense...to me anyway.

I was a huge Clarkie in '04, and I was really hoping that he'd run this time, though it never really seemed likely. It didn't surprise me when he endorsed Hillary. I spent way too much time on DU during the '04 cycle having the same pointless conversations that everyone is having now! :)

Honestly, I'd be ok with any of the Big Three winning the nomination, but I think Hillary understands the "game" better than anyone, and her record is much more progressive than she usually gets credit for. Campaigning and governing are two different things, and she understands that. Too bad that many people don't.

And I didn't feel strongly enough to blog much about it until late December. Actually a longer race (from this point - not from 2004, lol) would be useful. I want to see how Hillary handles the early setbacks. I want to see how Obama holds up under a national spotlight when the going gets tough. And if Edwards can come back from the postion he is in now, that would impress me also.

Obama certainly benefited from others being in front - Hillary nationally and Edwards, then Hillary in Iowa. It's going to be interesting to see how he reacts to being in the middle of a very bright spotlight. It's still very new to him.

Hillary has big leads in states like Florida and California. It's possible that they'll dwindle away as NH did, but if they don't, this will definitely turn into a much more interesting race as Super Tuesday approaches.

My brain still objects to the possibility that Iowa really does determine our candidate. I've never believed that, but the situation in NH just seems bizarre. With no catalyst other than the Iowa results (and the intense media coverage of same), NH basically did a 180. People like to vote for a winner, of course, but it gives the impression that "our" side can exhibit nearly the same herd behavior as the other one.

If Obama does falter, for some reason, the benefactor could actually be Edwards. A lot depends on how Hillary handles the adversity and how the media presents it. Stranger things have happened.

Clark is great. I hope there is a good spot for him in the next administration. We need him.

I'm not sure there was anyone that campaigned harder for Democrats in '06.

Pretty funny considering that there were a lot of people on DU (some are still here!) who claimed that he was a Republican infiltrator in '04!

Hehe....

The delegates from michigan are discounted they dont count. They were taken away because the jumped the schedule. same for florida so no matter who wins those votes they dont count. As a matter of it has the potential to hurt he because it will be brought out when they vote that she is the only one that ignored the parties wishes. It may not hurt her but it wont have any effect whatsoever on the delegate race.

from the NY Sun:


http://www.nysun.com/article/69128?page_no=2

Of New York State's 281 delegates, 151 will be elected proportionally based on the ballot results of the February 5 primary. Forty-five of the remaining 130 will be chosen by party leaders, and the remaining 85 will be selected at a New York State Democratic Committee meeting in May.

While the committee is prohibited from endorsing candidates before the primaries, the chairwoman of the New York State Democratic Party, June O'Neill, and her co-chairman, David Pollack, have personally endorsed Ms. Clinton.

and when Rock mentioned Clinton, it seemed split between booing and cheering. When Giuliani was mentioned it was overwhelming booing (looks like the city really dislikes him now).

Obama got a lot of cheering. Granted this sample is very skewed (midtown Manhattan with a lot of African Americans), but I think the turnout will be CRAZY among the black population in NYC as well as elsewhere across the US. As it is, polls show him up by a huge margin in SC.

If NY state splits its delegates, it won't be an overwhelming victory. She'll definitely win NY state (and likely NJ and CT), but with the momentum on Obama's side, it won't be as overwhelming as she'd like it to be. At some point, she'll also face calls to quit and fundraising will be increasingly more difficult.

Sure.

That's a big come down from the heady days of summer, but it's true. If her Second in NH is as close as her 3rd was in Iowa, she would actually be in fine shape under the circumstances.

That what she needs to stay in this.

on SLU

They can't beat us both.

:loveya:

Now, against all my will, I'm getting emo about this.

She really is my #1 for too many reasons to deny anymore.

I guess it's for real now, to me.

Good thing we didn't know each other back in 04, lol.

<3

***hugs***

:pals:

Just kiddin' ;)

:P

:D

*deep frenches Jersey*

:grr:

they used to embarrass me. :rofl:

That was a long long time ago, wasn't it Jim?

The hot lez action, admit it.

He's here all week, folks!

ok, stop it! :rofl:

glad to see you around. :pals:

Now, don't you?

???

Everybody wants Bettie!

I never did see that movie, :cry:

A strong second sounds good! GO Hillary!

:loveya:

lol

I'm at least hoping for a solid second for her. :)

You throwing your hat in the ring still surprises me, Crunch.

*hugs*

With the 2nd tier candidates becoming clearly non-viable, he was a lock.

"To hell with all of this"

I guess not, eh?

:P

and spared myself the aggravation of the early jostling. At this point, the main action should be over with relatively quickly. I'm actually kind of having fun with it this time. :)

because of the ugliness and just all around stupidity of the attacks on her. I figured if people that ignorant were supporting Edwards and Obama I didn't belong in those groups.
Now that doesn't mean all of their supporters. But the sexism, the basic ignorance about her record, the 24/7 hyperbole and ranting about triangulation and corporatism etc... without any facts to back up their anger drove me right to her campaign.
The unfortunate thing is now that all these independents have had such an impact on the democratic party nomination, people are going to be very tempted to jump on the Obama bandwagon, even loyal democrats who have supported her up to now.
Going forward we really should not allow IA and NH be first.

incap won't take any shit :-)

:toast:

:toast:

:P

;)

But we are still all Clarkies at heart.

:)

I thought they were good through Novemeber 08?

I think they were deactivated when Kat spilled some coffee on the control keyboard.

We certainly seem to have debunked the claim that Clark supporters don't think for themselves.

A consensus, there certainly isn't!

It certainly has been interesting seeing people I recognize from '04 sort of transform this election cycle.

Ok, maybe "interesting" isn't the right word. :)

Incap's a winner.... to hell with the rest

*hugs*

:)

Underdogs.... we love underdogs

"Hey, she is behind, let me get on this bandwagon before it sinks!"

:silly:

down isn't out

Not this time.

so I'm pulling for her, too.

I like supporting underdogs and outcasts, I guess. When kids in the lunchroom sneered at an unpopular kid(s), I'd sometimes go sit with the unpopular kid(s).

That or I just like copying seasonedblue. :rofl:

I'd like to see Obama and Hillary fight each other until the end. Hopefully one of them in this span of time form a sensible progressive platform rather than ineffectual rhetoric.

:)

and all the anti-Hillary hysteria here and on Kos pushed me over the line.

And the thought of watching Tweety's fat head explode, live and in color, makes me want to....


DANCE!!!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndPJRh_K2yc

*hugs*

:)

Now,

DANCE with me, you fool!! :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

I was kind of begrudgingly in Hillary's corner after the Wes, McGovern and RFK Jr endorsements but the ridiculousness of this place has pushed me firmly into the Clinton camp...Clarkies for the Evil Queen. hehe! We rock! :)

As long as we have a strong candidate, is all i ask for.

I'm off the fence, but not too far, my pants are caught on the barbed wire. I've always supported ABE, but having supported Obama as my Senator, I have to say he hasn't served me well and I can't support him for a higher office.

You endorsed Hillary and all she did was shock the whole world!

Hehe....