Why February 5 "Super Tuesday" looks super to Clinton

LAT: NEWS ANALYSIS
Why Feb. 5 looks super to Clinton
Her core supporters will have a major say on the most important day of the primary season.
By Peter Wallsten, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
January 9, 2008

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- The big news Tuesday was not merely that Hillary Rodham Clinton scored an unexpected comeback victory. Emerging from that win was something more durable: a road map that could guide the former first lady to the Democratic presidential nomination.

The margin in the New Hampshire primary was razor-thin. But she clearly beat Barack Obama among core Democratic voters, the very bloc that will grow in influence as the nomination fight continues in the coming weeks. Strip away the independents who made up about four in 10 participants in Tuesday's Democratic primary, thanks to the state's open-balloting rules, and Clinton outpaced Obama among registered Democrats 45% to 34%, according to an exit poll conducted for a media consortium. Moreover, she beat the Illinois senator among women -- a crucial group for her and one that she lost in last week's Iowa caucuses -- and among lower-income households and older voters.

"This is an amazing comeback story for her over the course of a relatively few days," said Mark Mellman, a Democratic strategist who advised Sen. John F. Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign. "It would seem to indicate that she has the ability to remobilize her constituents."

If her advantage among Democrats holds true in the flurry of primaries set for Feb. 5 -- when core Democrats are expected to be more dominant -- Clinton could regain the traction that seemed lost when last week's defeat in Iowa ended her yearlong reign as the Democratic front-runner. Only registered Democrats can take part in a number of the Feb. 5 contests that are expected to decide the nomination. Non-Democrats are not welcome, for example, in voting in Connecticut, Arizona and in Clinton's home state of New York, potential strongholds for Clinton that each control more nomination delegates than the relative handful from Iowa, New Hampshire and other earlier states.

Another major prize that day is California, where unaffiliated voters will be permitted to participate in the Democratic primary. But some strategists believe California's Latino voters could boost Clinton, who is more popular in that group than Obama....

All told, more than 2,000 delegates will be decided that day, enough to seal the nomination. And by proving her strength, Clinton on Tuesday probably succeeded in calming skittish donors and supporters who had begun to wonder if she could even last until next month's contests....

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-demassess9jan09,0,7452936.story?coll=la-home-center

I don't get that part?

Maybe for the Primaries, but the bottomline is not winning primaries, it's winning the GE!

real winner tonight. Edwards also won. Hillary lost votes. Think back a few months. Hillary was way ahead in the polls. Obama was way down and Edwards was barely a glitch. Hillary just squeaked past tonight. Go back and look at the old polls.

I would, however, like to point out that you should remember how this feels. After Iowa, when Obama won, Edwards placed a surprisingly good second and Hillary was third, we Edwards supporters were really unhappy because our candidate was not given any media attention. The whole story was Obama/Hillary. Edwards was ignored.

At that time, the Obama crowd was ruthless toward us. It hurt. We are all Democrats. I prefer Edwards to Obama. You prefer Obama to Edwards. Don't gloat when your candidate wins. Don't push people down and hurt them when they are already down. It doesn't help your candidate. It makes you seem very mean.

I hope the Obama supporters will now realize what Edwards is talking about when he talks about his experience. The press is playing with Obama tonight. Kerry/Edwards went through this sort of thing in 2004. The candidates are hyped up and down -- by the corporate media. There is nothing honest about the statements in the media. It is all intended to sell the products that are advertised on the programs that hype all the controversy and drama.

Hillary lost big in New Hampshire. This is the Northeast. This should be her turf. This should be where she walks away with a big margin of votes over her competitors. This is actually a loss.

The game is wide open. Obama or Edwards could still win the nomination.

It could be a brokered convention. I'm sticking with Edwards. He is the candidate who best sees through all the hype.

supporter in 2004. Clark did better than Edwards in New Hampshire (about the same as Edwards did over Clinton in Iowa), and Edwards still got all of the press, while Clark got none....all the way thru and Edwards supporters could have cared less. That year, they were only interested in a two man contest, so it was Kerry and Edwards only.

So I understand how you must be feeling, but it was hard for me to sympathize with Edwards supporters after Iowa due to how I was treated (laugh ted at when I mentioned Media collusion) in 2004.

Most supporters don't care as much if it is not their candidate, until it is.

That's how it works.

Which is why that say...."and then they came for you, and there was no one left" is accurate.

She lost and by a lot in Iowa and Obama went off with Juggernaut speed. Then she lost her lead and Obama was expected to crush her by 12 to 15 points and she not only pushed his juggernaut off its rails, and punctured Obama's momentum but she then won the primary. If thats nots taking winning then I dont know what is.

as they say Iowans pick Corn, New Hampshire picks presidents. Sorry for the small amount of gloating but so many people wrote her off viciously yesterday that will have to eat crow today and admit she just about smacked Obama down after the weeks she's had.

Be that as it may..congrats & kudos to the Clinton Camp...both "here" and in the Real World.

South Carolina ? Nevada? You're UP!
"Let's Dance!"

before your stupid post.

"I pity you fool."

LOSE Indies 2-in-a-row= Good!:crazy: We have to GROW the party

Anyhow...NOW the game is on ! "Core" Dems Vs. New

Clinton slogan should be: "Round Up the Usual Suspects"


HRC: "I kicked your butt!"
"O: " Next week's comin' ! Let's go!"

Regardless if it's Obama, Edwards, Kucinich....anyone...just not the McCanidate.

But I am not crazy about her to begin with.

...Indeed, let's rejoice.

If the core Dem support holds, then Super Tuesday will indeed be super, for the GOP.

You nailed it right on the head.

The thing that drives me NUTS about the HRC lemmings is that they can't see beyond the end of their noses...Getting the Dem votes was NEVER the issue, it was attracting the Indies over that mattered, and HRC has the highset negatives of ANY candidate amongst the Indies...

If HRC somehow winds up with the Nom the GOP keeps the WH in November without a doubt...

While I agree this bodes well for Democrats in general, I have a nasty taste in my mouth this morning. I don't want another 8 years of Clinton in the White House. Sorry, speaking from the heart.

really.

:)

on the one hand I like that Hillary has specific plans. On the other hand I like that Obama inspires. And on the last hand I like that Edwards is staying in the race.

But you know how it is when you wanted someone else earlier in the race. :shrug:

I'm sure that today's win will also encourage her donors to chip in some more. I, myself, was holding back to see how she did today.

1) How many of these states use electro-fraud machines?

2) How many of the states using those machines deliberately moved up their primary this year?


BONUS QUESTION: if the answer to either question is more than "zero", how the HELL do we stop this fraud before it happens?

Fraud is a possible explanation for a race that swings more than 10 points overnight though.

I'm a Kucinich supporter, so I'm more or less an observer in the New Hampshire battle. Nor do I believe one tiny state will seal the nomination. But it does impact momentum, whether real or perceived, or media-created, for that matter.

But when it comes to the date on the primary calendar where the majority of delegates may well be decided, under circumstances which did not exist in previous elections, then that event must be taken VERY seriously.

And I have yet to see you put forward any reason why the voting machines should be trusted. Why is that?

Here is just one sample....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2635128#2635235

And it remains my view, and will until some actual evidence is produced, that the word 'fraud' is indeed being used with the meaning indicated above in most instances regarding the New Hampshire Democratic Party primary.

People still changed their registration and voted for Obama. I don't see why they can't do the same in those states.

Many of the folks who caucused for Obama in Iowa were not registered Democrats.

Methinks I would go with the candidate who is consistently winning the caucuses, then.

clinton is set to win w/ a divide and conquer strategy. Edwards has been hammering clinton debate after debate, if he drops out, I can't imagine more than 25-30% of his supporters falling in with Hillary.

First, Edwards has been working hard on this campaign for over 12 months now. He picked up delegates in both Iowa and NH, and there are still 48 States to go.

Second, I think it's important that Democrats in all 50 States should be offered a real choice of candidates who are offering different approaches.

Third, if no candidate wins more than 50% of the delegates, then Edwards' delegates could play a decisive role at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

Pffft!

Sorry but they will cream her in the GE. That's the plan folks. They've been chomping at the bit for YEARS to take her on.

And I don't think it was because McCain won.

And we're in the primary phase of that marathon.

Hillary knows that the root dems are who matter in primaries and so she is running her campaign accordingly. Her strategy will change come General Election time.

Hillary is amazing -- and if that isn't clear by today's results, I'm not sure what else to say. She commands energy and that's the mark of a great leader.

I feel so good tonight.
:-) This Hillbot is happy. ha.

W.

Obama assumes the "Bobby" mantle. Fine with me..



Yeah, "Core" Dems...old, entrenched,same old cable net show faces..."Round Up the USUAL Suspects"

on Scarborough. First time I ever heard him use that term...He agrees with you; he's content to play from that position.

I think that the states that have primaries and caucuses that allow members from the other party and independents to take part in them are just nuts.

It's the Democratic Party, not the "Gee, maybe I'll be a Democrat just for the Primary Party" and the party should choose the candidates. I've been a Democrat my whole adult life and I am supposed to graciously invite others who really have no stake in the party or, as in some states, Republicans to help choose my candidates? No thanks.

I was a kid,of course...but he beat Ike's Secretary of Labor for 6 years.
Corzine & Co. will certainly try to "LOCK DOWN & LOCK UP Jersey for HRC"
I just might have to take the camos-out-of-the-trunk for this, the...
GREAT NEW JERSEY PRIMARY INSURGENCY of 2008

Once 1st Air Cav...ALWAYS 1st Air Cav.."Garry Owen !"

:thumbsup:

:eyes: