Don't think Huckabee can be their nominee? Think again!!!

A lot of commentators continue with their garbage about how February 5th is a graveyard for Mike Huckabee because of these vaunted "Big States" like New York and California. I am sick of northeastern elitism on this point. This is why my party, the Democrats, continues to lose elections. Let me do a little math for them of likely or probable Mike Huckabee states on February 5th:

Alabama: 48 Delegates
Arkansas: 34 Delegates
Colorado: 46 Delegates
Georgia: 72 Delegates
Minnesota: 41 Delegates
Missouri: 58 Delegates
North Dakota: 26 Delegates
Oklahoma: 41 Delegates
Tennessee: 55 Delegates

The total of this: 421 Delegates
The total of New York(101) and California(173): 274 Delegates

Whoops. How'd that happen? All of the states I gave Huckabee as possibilities have very large Evangelical communities and large rural votes. They are either similar to Iowa(Minnesota and North Dakota) or are very much like it. Colorado and Minnesota have very strong religious conservative votes and they are caucuses meaning the most committed turn out. The southern and mid south states I need not even explain. Illinois and California cannot be ruled out as I explained in an earlier post and neither can Montana. Those sitting in the northeast saying how the "big states" give him no chance don't understand the Republican Party.

The Republicans give more delegates to states that are loyal Republican states than their populations would indicate. For example Missouri has 58 delegates versus New Jersey's 52. Alabama has 48 delegates versus Massachusetts' 43. The Democrats do the same but in reverse giving Massachusetts more delegates than Georgia despite Georgia have about 2 million more people. This needs to be understood when figuring out candidate viability.

Now does Huckabee have a shot at a majority of delegates on February 5th? Probably not. However, he has a good shot at getting the most out of the Republicans running. He might even do better if Romney drops out as he is the next strongest opponent of immigration after Romney. A disgusting position to be sure, but one the Republican Party eats up. McCain will have serious trouble contesting these states against Huckabee. In 2000, he got creamed in Georgia and Missouri in the face of Bush's social conservative alliance. I would fully expect to see that again there and elsewhere in the southern states and Midwest.

McCain is arguably in better position to win Illinois and more moderate Republican states making him an ever so slight favorite for the nomination. Giuliani however, will be competing with him and hurting his chances of consolidating the more moderate and liberal wings of the party. After February 5th, the Republican race gets interesting. On February 9th it moves to Kansas and Louisiana. On the 12th Maryland and Virginia. On the 19th Washington state and Wisconsin(Huckabee only has a shot at Wisconsin of the last four I've mentioned). It may only be decided on March 4th with Texas, Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island. McCain will easily take the Northeastern states, but Ohio and Texas will be dogfights between the moderate Republicans and the conservatives. Granted, the race might be over by then if Republicans sober up and realize McCain is their best chance to hold the White House, but if the true believers remain true to Huckabee, watch out.

A lot of people simply don't get Huckabee's strength among Republicans and I am really trying to get people to understand why he is not some lunatic fringe candidate that can be easily dismissed. I think a Huckabee presidency is a frightening prospect and something we need to guard against. The first thing we must do is take him seriously. I still think McCain is the favorite since a brokered convention would choose him over Huckabee, but we must never discount the possibility of a Huckabee win.

it doesnt matter they all lose to Obama

that works in places like Racine and Kenosha here in Wisconsin. I know. I've talked to the conservative leaning independents who live there and are often indicative of how this state will vote. In 2004, a lot of them split their votes, same as 2000. They sound like potential Huckabee supporters this year and that's enough to scare me.

Hes got the fundies all sewn up. Their influence may be diminishing but its far from gone.

I think SC feels bad and will give it to the old man this time around, even with the evangelical vote. If that happens, Fuckabee's chances go way down. And McCain will swiftboat him--their little alliance is coming to an end now, Romney's almost out of the way, and McCain will go nasty to win.

I think McCain has a better shot in SC than most other southern states. Huckabee does need to win there and I think Romney and Thompson hanging around competing for the social conservative vote hurts him.

but then I live in Virginia, not Massachusetts.

1. He is likeable. Speaks well on his feet.

2. He's religious like the base of his party, if insanely so.

3. His message is populist. Don't think Good ol' Boy has suffered from Bush's policies too? Well he has, and he'd like some health care too. But he ain't gonna vote for that woman, that black or that haircut guy.

I think he will wage a major challenge for us.

That might be enough to win the nomination in this field, but he will be a general election disaster barring something like an independent Bloomberg candidacy that attracts significant numbers of independents and some more conservative Democrats away from the Democratic nominee. Then, maybe Huckabee can capture an electoral majority. That could be an election scenario that ends up in the House.

Time is running out for Republicans to coalesce around an anybody but Huckabee candidate. He may have the biggest block in the Republican party, but what number is needed to capture the nomination?

If nobody reaches that number, he may be in the position of kingmaker with considerable influence over a more attractive general election candidate who could be a Trojan Horse for extremely conservative social policies that were ceded to the Huckabee camp in exchange for the nomination. He could ask to pick cabinet members or name judges. I suppose this is not too much of a concession for guys like Rudy, Mitt, and McCain who already never resist an opportunity to fellate Scalia, Alito and Roberts in front of Republican primary audiences made up of the conservative evangelical base.

will kill Huckabee with moderates. (What will he say if the media ever calls him on this is what I'm wondering?

Wayne DuMond won't help him, either.

we give them credit for.

I've been warning folks on here about Giuliani and Huckabee for a while now, but most of the time, people don't take me seriously.

Both Huck and Rudy have serious ethics issues, but we'll have to see if the media ever calls them on them.

I've been trying to say the same thing. You did a much better job of laying it out.

Haha!