John Edwards: Spoiler, Surrogate or Surprise?

WP: John Edwards: Spoiler, Surrogate or Surprise?
By Dan Balz


John Edwards making a pitch in South Carolina. (AP).

John Edwards is the forgotten man in the race for the Democratic nomination, but not an inconsequential candidate. Edwards, the angry populist of Iowa who may become southern fried Democrat as the South Carolina primary unfolds, has a critical decision ahead. How long can or should he keep his candidacy going? In a largely two-person race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, it's clear where Edwards's sentiments lie. If he can't be the nominee, he strongly prefers Obama to Clinton....

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Edwards has two weeks to think about the future. He is certainly in the race through Nevada and South Carolina, the next two contests on the calendar, and at least one reason to keep going that long is that he is likely to be a help to Obama in the Palmetto State. Obama and Clinton have competed heavily for the African American vote in South Carolina, and the Clinton campaign fears that Obama will now win the majority of that vote, perhaps a sizable majority. Clinton's chances of winning would depend on the white vote, but as long as Edwards is running there, she would have to split that vote with him. That alone was one reason that, before Clinton unexpectedly won in New Hampshire, her advisers were seriously considering skipping the state.

After South Carolina, the choices become more difficult for Edwards. At that point, he could begin to hurt Obama as much as he hurts Clinton, particularly with some of those change-oriented voters who are disinclined to support Clinton....

Edwards had hoped that a Clinton loss in New Hampshire would have effectively ended her candidacy, leaving him a last opportunity to have a fight for the nomination with Obama over how best to change the political culture of Washington and the nation. Her victory last Tuesday robbed him of any real likelihood of that happening. Clinton and Obama are committed to a fight for states and delegates through Feb. 5. After that it's anybody's guess whether the race will be decided or headed for a war of attrition. But Edwards is not financially equipped to fight anything approaching a long war....

But Edwards is someone who never stops thinking about strategy -- and he has a remarkable ability to step out of the moment and analyze the state of play with a clear eye. That tells me he is thinking about what happens after South Carolina. If he concludes he cannot be the nominee, what will he conclude about the role he wants to play -- if any -- to influence the eventual outcome? That's why he should not be forgotten.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/11/john_edwards_spoiler_surrogate.html?hpid=topnews

Two states, relax.

as long as you keep writing "stuff" like you're writing, Edwards will be just exactly what so many in D.C. want him to be!

You couch your words as if you see him as a fighter, but your basic message is that YOU feel he really can't do it!! You have a lot of money... put YOU money toward a good cause, and if YOU aren't allowed to.... then FIND SOMEONE who can! Bet you won't EVEN TRY!!

eat shit & die washington post!

at each other full throttle. Why is is that the Democratic race has to be narrowed down, and in two weeks. That is crazy!!!