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Salon writer says there was no fraud in NH. Read his stupid argument here

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antiimperialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 12:44 PM
Original message
Salon writer says there was no fraud in NH. Read his stupid argument here
Edited on Sat Jan-12-08 12:50 PM by antiimperialist
Ok so this Salon writer, Farhad Manjoo, admits Hillary Clinton did much better in Diebold-counted areas than she did in hand-counted areas.
It's simple! He says, areas counted by hand do not have machines because they can't afford them. Those are poor areas, and since Obama does better among low-income people, it's understandable that he won there.

Officials in charge of small counties are more likely to choose to manually count their ballots. But if you've got 10,000 or 20,000 voters in your county -- like in Manchester or Concord -- you'll use machines. Money is also a factor; poorer places are less likely to have the resources for machines. Governmental efficiency might also matter -- some elections officials may not have gotten around, yet, to adopting machines -- as might local infrastructure, or any number of other factors.

But, of course, the same demographics would also affect voting results. It's likely, for example, that people in small places or poor places would vote very differently from people in large places or rich places -- and, therefore, variances in the result that look like they were caused by voting-machine fraud might actually only be the product of normal regional differences.

Indeed, there's plenty of evidence showing that Obama did well in hand-count areas because those places were Obama strongholds. Consult the second table on this page, the one that shows hand-count vs. machine-count results in counties with fewer than 750 votes.

There, you see Obama got a blowout in hand-count areas -- 39.59 percent to Clinton's 33.64 percent. Clinton did better than Obama in machine-count places, but her margin is smaller than in other places in the state: just 37.37 percent to Obama's 35.04 percent.

Even more interesting is the third table on this page, which s


But there is a HUGE PROBLEM with this analysis.

There is no evidence that low-income people were pro-Obama.
From the CNN exit poll in New Hampshire:

People earning $15,000 or less: Clinton 49%, Obama 37%
$15,000-$30,000: Clinton 50%, Obama 39%
$30,000-$50,000: Clinton 44%, Obama 32%
$50,000-$75,000: Obama 37%, Clinton 32%
$75,000-$100,000: Obama 42%, Clinton 36%
$100,000-$150,000: Obama 43%, Clinton 33%

As you can see, Clinton dominated among lower income voters. Salon's weird piece does nothing but strengthen doubts about the differences of the scanner-counted results vs. hand-counted ones.

Oh yeah and by the way, Bush really beat Kerry in OH, the writer says.

Was there fraud? i don't know. But if you are trying to settle the issue don't use twisted poor vs. rich claim as an excuse.

http://machinist.salon.com/feature/2008/01/11/new_hampshire_vote/index.html
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TwilightZone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 12:48 PM
Response to Original message
1. Are we back to believing the exit polls?
I thought that we were supposed to believe that they were fixed. :shrug:
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antiimperialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. You are wrong. Those who believe fraud occured believe in exit polls n/t
Edited on Sat Jan-12-08 12:52 PM by antiimperialist
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TwilightZone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Exit polls are adjusted to fit the results.
That's been quite well established.

Take a quick glance through the Election Reform forum. It is quite obvious that your assertion is inaccurate. Plenty of people who believe that there was fraud are decrying the exit poll modifications.

Example: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x491302
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creeksneakers2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. Before the exit polls were adjusted to fit the results
They showed Obama with only a 1 point lead. The final result was within the poll's margin of error.

I don't believe subcategories of exit polls can be updated, because the only information that arrives after the polls close is vote totals and where geographically the votes came from.
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Cameron27 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 12:50 PM
Response to Original message
2. At this point,
I hope they do a damned recount and be done with it.
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TwilightZone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Agreed.
And, hopefully, we don't have to go through this 48 more times.
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LiberalFighter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 01:02 PM
Response to Original message
6. Smaller counties more likely to manually count ballots is stupid excuse
Ballots do not have to be and should not be counted at a central location in a county.

RATHER they should be counted at the precinct or ward level and then reported to the county seat.

It is cost effective to do it at a central location in the county if ballots are counted with a machine. Would not be cost effective if the counting machines were used in each voting location.

Manually counting costs less than machine counting at a central or voting location.


I don't know the laws for each state for election workers in each voting location. But at the least there should be 1 Democrat and 1 Republican overseeing the voting.
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dragonlady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-12-08 01:24 PM
Response to Original message
7. Really small communities won't use machines, no matter how wealthy they are
Remember the video of the vote in Dixville Notch? Would the town supervisors buy a very expensive machine to count their votes? New Hampshire has many, many small communities that can be counted by hand in a reasonable time. It would be wasteful not to count by hand.

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