SUSA: Hillary with wide leads in FL, CA, OK, and NY...

Florida. 1/11-13. Likely primary voters. (12/15-16 results)

Democrats. MoE 4%

Clinton 56 (53)
Obama 23 (21)
Edwards 14 (19)


California. 1/11-13. Likely primary voters. (12/14-16 results)

Democrats. MoE 3.5%

Clinton 50 (49)
Obama 35 (30)
Edwards 10 (14)


Oklahoma. 1/11-13. Likely primary voters. (No trend lines)

Democrats MoE 3.9%

Clinton 45
Edwards 25
Obama 19


New York. 1/9-10. Likely primary voters. (No trend lines)

Democrats. MoE 3.2%

Clinton 56
Obama 29
Edwards 8

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/15/143015/154/337/436967

~

Clinton's lead was IIRC already pretty much gone and within MOE. So even if we assume an IA like swing away from HRC in these next three weeks, it doesn't get anyone else in contention here in some huge delegate count states.

I've said it often and for a while - the overture states don't matter this cycle - it's 2/5 that's the curtain up time and unless there is a HUGE indy swing or race-changing event it'sw still Clinton's to lose. I think she's a fine candidate, but I'd rather have either of the other two at this point. However I can sepearet hope from expectation, and I expect to be voting and campaigning for her in November. Trsut me I will do so if she's there - same as I will for any of the others if I'm wrong.

It's all about expectations and the expectations are SC is Obama's to lose...I also think the MSM is going to focus more on how the process can be gamed in NV! than on the actual winner...

.....I was thinking more of predictions about IA in advance of BO's win. I think the "polls mean nothing" idea started (NH exploded it) because Hillary was leading IA for so long then Obama came up in the last weeks and secured a solid enough, bugger than predicted, win.

But he didn't come back from stable margins well outside the MOE as in these states (and several other 2/5 states). The big mass that will really overwhelmingly drive momentum vote then, and HRC is leading by a mile collectively. I think it will be closer than the polls say, because Obama has done well reaching indies who may be misse on this poll, and his younger supporters have at leas so far proven to actually turn out in decent numbers for once - but I still think the super duper Tue states are hers to lose right now, with a pretty short window to go.

They're all plants..
No they're all racists..
no wait..the polls were all taken on Diebold machines...
Feb 5th is gonna be a lotta fun..

eom

Now she just has to have a strong showing in the states before these.

mean that much but you can bet the mediawhores will be playing it big time if obama wins and gets a majority of the black vote. Here again I fault the mediawhores for trying to turn this campaign into hrc the white candidate and obama the black candidate and all along the mediawhores promoting mccain in a postive manner in hopes that obama and clinton have done so much damage neither will be viable in nov so their cnadidate mccain wins.....

Both candidates pulled themselves above the fray yesterday but the media won't let it drop. It's disgusting.

:sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm:

.

never understood the whole inevitability complaint. It's like saying anyone who projects the Patriots wto win the Superbowl is only bowing to an inevitability meme rather than simply saying that based on their record, their players, health status, and the teams remaining for them to play, they have the best chance of winning.

HRC has the best chance of winning. She leads, often widely, in the states with enough delegates to mean she wins. It may change, just like Brady and Moss and Welker may all break their legs in separate Twister injuries, but that doesn't mean it's not the most likely scenario now, nor that it is some phantom manufactured "inevitability" concept driving that opinion.