Clinton seems poised for convincing Nevada win-how does this affect the race?

What do you all think this will do for the overall nomination battle? Could it in effect seal the deal for her? Especially since the media thinks Obama should win this one. This will be presented as another huge HRC comeback. Latest polls show Hillary well in front:

The latest polls:

Nevada Democratic Caucus
Saturday, January 19 | Delegates at Stake: 25

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Edwards Spread
RCP Average 01/09 - 01/17 - 37.0 33.3 19.5 Clinton +3.7
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 01/15 - 01/17 814 LV 42 37 12 Clinton +5.0
Mason-Dixon 01/14 - 01/16 500 LV 41 32 14 Clinton +9.0
American Res. Group 01/09 - 01/14 600 LV 35 32 25 Clinton +3.0
Research 2000 01/11 - 01/13 500 LV 30 32 27 Obama +2.0

I base my "convincing win" statement on the two most recent polls (Zogby and Mason Dixon)

anymore anyway? Not I...if we were to have believed them all along then HRC would already BE the dem nominee

they vote - with their vote counting 5 to 10 times those of other folks (the actual weighting will depend on the turnout) - means Obama has a lock.

These polls of "likely caucus goers" depend on getting a random sample of "likely caucus goers" and then weighting the results by where they will vote to reflect the casino worker bias.

If the pollsters have it right they are better mathematicians that I ever was.

Obama may take South Carolina, but it won't be enough to curb her momentum heading into Super Tuesday.

However, I don't think she'll win.

so this should be interesting. F*ck the media!

Sounds like Obama's in good shape then.

I think the LVRJ has it just about right. I'll just be happy if it's not a blowout by double-digits.

If Obama does not take SC with a massive margin and Hill pulls close, he's finished, the expectation has been raised for him. If another New Hampshire occurs, he may as well fold immediately.

While I disagree with you that the media is saying Obama should win (I've been hearing they're evenly matched and Nevada's a tie breaker) I think Obama will be in big trouble if he loses, unless he can pull off a huge win in South Carolina (winning both the white and black vote, and winning by over 10% or something like that).

Bye-bye now!

I don't think polling is reliable in caucusing. I am worried and think Obama may well win Nevada.

:evilgrin:

Obama has the CWU endorsement, Hillary has a huge Hispanic base there and great organization. I'd be happily shocked if Obama won NV.

Yeah, I agree the media isn't presenting it as Obama as a clear favourite but they are saying stuff like "Can Hillary have a comeback victory in Nevada."

What is very concerning is that white voters are breaking decisively against Obama in all of these polls, national and statewise. One *could* say that they don't like the thought of an African American in the White House.

and it's disturbing if it DOES end up that white people vote against him since he won in IA and came in close 2nd in NH with almost all white voters. It'll mean the Clintons' attacks, innuendos, etc., worked. And that's sad.

Such division of Voters on Race didn't start appearing in Polls until the last week.

the Clinton's InItToWinIt Mentality is damaging the Democratic Party.

News to me.

If she were to win SC, that probably WOULD seal the deal for her, but not the NV win by itself.

Caucuses are just too dicey. And intimidation too easy to do in the casino caucuses. Also, the casino results count for more and they are expected to go for Obama.

affect the race?

Not at all.

nine would be pretty convincing but then Obama will win SC, and it will be two to two going into Super Tuesday.

from TPM:


There are two important caveats here. First, there has never before been an important, high-turnout Nevada caucus, so nobody can really be sure how to model turnout. Second, with John Edwards seemingly below 15% statewide and thus likely to fail to meet viability in many precincts, the second choices of his supporters could be truly decisive, along with the remaining undecided voters.


Viable candidates are not allowed to send voters to non-viable candidates - if your candidate is viable, you can't change your vote.

I'd say 70% of his support goes to Obama-I know that's how I'd go if JE continues to get hardly any coverage and drops out-ABH

These numbers don't really mean much without that information.

Anybody care to take a stab at explaining why white voters seem unwilling to vote for an African American Candidate? Huge white/black differentials in polls.

candidate.

Haven't you been listening to ALL his speeches? They are aaaaaaaaaalllll about getting out the BLACK vote. Talk about race baiting!!!

Then she went on to minimize MLK's role in the Civil Rights Movement. Also, her surrogates and supporters were smearing him with the "he may have been a drug dealer," "he's a secret Muslim who went to a Madrassa," etc.

Could race have anything to do with it?

And maybe not even then.

The polls meant nothing in NH and, like several pointed out, the Culinary Union folks will probably tip the scale in Obama's favor.

We'll just have to wait and see........

They were discussing this on Hardball right now that if Hillary wins NV it will be a HUGE comeback, their words. They said they do expect Obama to win and Hillary is playing the expectation game very well.

unfortunately. but we'll see.

That strategy is designed to make it seem like a huge surprise * an upset! * if she does win rendering an Obama win no big whoop. Just like she has done so far. The MSM thinks it's precious when she cries and uses her carefully modulated inside voice. We'll see how the reindeer games pan out for her.

If he does keep it close, he still has a chance to regain momentum in SC

(fingers crossed and hoping)