Marist Poll: Obama 4 points behind Clinton in New York City

Who’s supporting whom? The New York State Democratic Primary is most competitive in New York City where about half of the state’s Democratic voters reside. Clinton receives support from 43% of likely Democratic voters in New York City compared with 39% for Obama. Clinton outdistances Obama upstate 59% to 22%, and she has an 18 percentage point lead in the suburbs which surround New York City. Barack Obama leads among African Americans likely to vote on primary day. African American voters historically comprise between one-fifth and one-quarter of the state’s Democratic primary vote. He is very competitive among younger Democrats. He receives 47% among likely Democrats who are under 45 years of age compared with 43% for Clinton. Among Democrats likely to vote who are 45 years of age or older, Clinton leads Obama 50% to 27%.

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Nature of the Sample: 1,467 New York State Registered Voters
This survey of 1,467 New York State registered voters was conducted January 15th through January 17th, 2008. Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections. The margin of error is ±3%. There are 679 registered Democrats including 426 Democrats likely to vote in the February 5th primary. The results for these sub-samples are statistically significant at ±4% and ±5%, respectively.