Obama pulling ahead in SC, now 44 to 28.

A new Public Policy Polling (D) automated survey in South Carolina (conducted 1/21) finds:

580 Likely Democratic Primary Voters (± 4.1%)

44 Obama
28 Clinton
15 Edwards
1 Kucinich
12 Undecided

Among a subsample of African-Americans, Obama leads Clinton 70% to 15%.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_SC_Release_012208.pdf

Always curious about the inner workings.

Obama at 45 http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Put two and two together. The result will be viewed as a racial one and does not bode well for Obama on Super Tuesday.

Blacks: 75%, Hillary 19%
Whites: Hillary 63%, Edwards 17%, Obama 15%
Hispanics: Hillary 72%, Obama 11%, Edwards 9%

they should both be banished from the democratic party for ALL eternity. Damn them both to hell and back.

but they knew they could win by appealing to prejudice and turning him into a "black" candidate.

If winning is everything, you will do anything.

obama supporters picked it up and charged racism in every media outlet that would hear them.

You might be happier banishing yourself from the party.

It is subtle, but this is the clear message that will come out of South Carolina. Obama will win the black vote big-time. And it will be such a lopsided victory amongst blacks that the media will certainly have to report on it. That reporting will then go on to inspire even more stories about race, the racial divide, etc. And little by little, it won't even need to be spoken out loud -- Obama is a "black" candidate. It will just float out there and will seep into the consciousness.

I know we've come a long way and that most whites are not consciously racist. But there are still a fair segment that harbor the more subtle, unspoken prejudice. And when push comes to shove, do these people really want a black man as president? It doesn't have to be a lot of people to make a real difference in the outcome. If enough whites see Obama as a candidate of the black population only, then it will doom his chances.

For much the same reason.

I do not look at Obama as "the black candidate," but as a candidate who is black. Most people I know have a similar point of view -- that it would be "cool" if he was to become the first African-American president, but that the real choice is between at least three excellent contenders.

For this to devolve into a race election would be a step backwards.

--p!

Even if he loses, I don't want to see him go down as the 'black candidate'.

It would be nothing less than tragic if the first viable minority candidate lost, not on the merits, but because he began to be seen as a candidate of just one racial group.

I appreciate your remarks. Lately, just to try to pick up the gestalt about Obama. My sense is that if the spin after SC is that he only won because of the large AA vote, and then loses everwhere else on 2/5, it will be a gut wrenching blow to many african americans, and will reinforce a lot of cynism--perhaps warranted--about the state of race relations in the US. I don't know how that can be avoided at this point.

Especially if Obama loses all the major Super Tuesday states except for Georgia, which has a large black population.

To be fair to Obama, he is doing about as well as Edwards among whites and Hispanics. The difference is Edwards is at 4% among blacks and Obama is at 70%. Since about a fifth of Democrats are black that gives him a 14 point advantage over Edwards automatically. The overall poll numbers hide how close Obama and Edwards are among groups except for the AA vote.

Pretty fucking stupid on the part of the Clintons to use a divisive Southern Strategy in the primaries against probably the most reliable voting bloc the Democrats have.

Don't count on the Hispanics saving our asses either, since McCain is popular with them.

could, ironically, burn the Democratic Party's bridges with african americans.

Only he's not.

That's a real good theme for Hillaryland to be pushing. Way to alienate the extremely crucial Black vote in the General!

What the Hillary campaign will do is diminish the significance of Obama's win by doing this. It won't mean much on Super Tuesday when whites account for the bulk of the vote. Obama is tied nationally with Edwards among whites. What is he going to do in Super Tuesday states with small black populations? Don't give me Iowa and New Hampshire. That was before the Obama and Hillary racial BS.

Why are you lying?

In rural NV, Obama beat Hil 2 to 1! Iowa, NH.

What a liar you are!!

In the latest CNN national poll Edwards and Obama are tied among white voters.

Overall: Hillary 42, Obama 33, Edwards 17
Whites: Hillary 43, Obama 25, Edwards 23
Blacks: Obama 59, Hillary 31, Edwards 4%

but mostly it's just whites in the South that may not vote Obama. The Dem is never going to win the South anyhow.

But Obama is extremely popular among whites still everywhere else. Hillary's gamble to racialize the election was a failure and Obama will thus split Super Tuesday with her.

Then the next several states are mostly Obama states -- Clinton has lost the nomination in my opinion.

Places like Iowa. ;)

so I expect the race to be closer, depending on voter turnout and how the debate was perceived.
But the numbers still look great for Obama.

like in NH. It'd be so great to have a solid win in South Carolina!

turnout in 04 too. The final numbers will really depend on WHO shows up. I'm looking forward to seeing the next poll, to see if the debate had an impact.

we'll have CA, NY, NJ and MO as well as every other Super Tuesday State instead.

The last two polls have oversampled black voters and won't reflect the debate last night or Bill campaigning in SC. It could actually be fairly close, depending on GOTV.

because they've got a lot of votes to steal.

votes away from my Obama.

Chuck Hagel owns a big piece of ES&S...And he has been meeting with Bloomberg and Bloomberg has met with Obama...so there!

And you can tell what kind of flawless judgement they have by the current resident of the white house.

:sarcasm:

the Obama as Nicole Richie vs Hillary as Paris Hilton media war. It sells.

Maybe John can still get 2nd

developed a life disabling disease from a result of product liability or employer negligence in the workplace, they would find a reason to like John Edwards a lot more in a hurry.

You only call a cop when you need one. Otherwise they're just another local tax out of your paycheck. Little do they know the Illinois Obama senator sellout that I see.

If only they knew gold from gold plating.

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Anything more sinister or despicable that you're ascribing to anything I write, you're even a bigger moron.

Just wow.

Now we know...

Take your race baiting shit and enjoy the ride.

what a shocker...NOT.

From the SC Election central: http://www.state.sc.us/cgi-bin/scsec/96vr?countykey=ALL&D1=RACE

Total registered voters in SC: 2,246,242
Total voted in Repub primary: 442,789
That leaves: 1,803,453

Of that # non-white voters: 629,000

That leaves total white voters 1,174,353

PPP Poll % voting for Clinton: 43% 504,174
15% blacks for Clinton: 94,365
Total votes Clinton: 599,339


Total non-white voters: 629,000
From the PP Poll: 70% for Obama 448,200
From the PP Poll 17% whites Obama 199,240
Total votes Obama: 639,940

This assumes that every registered voter votes. Won't happen, of course. Stats show that blacks vote in larger numbers than whites.