Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Some potentially good news for Hillary in SC from Zogby

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread		 This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:47 AM
Original message
Some potentially good news for Hillary in SC from Zogby
Edited on Wed Jan-23-08 02:48 AM by wlucinda
Though the most recent datal still shows Obama clearly leading - and Edwards gaining, post debate, Zogby says it's still a very fluid race in SC...


"...Like other states before, this race appears to be fluid. After the first night of polling, Obama led by some 20 points. The second night alone, Clinton was down by just 10. So, is there movement? Yes, back and forth..."

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1431
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:05 AM
Response to Original message
1. ...
kicking for the morning people...before I go to bed
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
sunonmars Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:15 AM
Response to Original message
2. So basically since Iowa, Obama cannot carry the white vote whatsoever


If the Obama lot can say Hillary can't carry the black vote, its also fair to say this.

Thats a bigger problem for him than her when the bigger states come in play on the 5th Feb.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:36 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. I think he absolutely could in the general. But right now they are both doing poorly
with the opposing demographic. If that doesn't settle down quickly, it will have a negative short-term effect. The polls always react to media driven events, but things even out in time. I'm just not sure there is enough time before Super Tuesday for either of them to regain much lost ground.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
sunonmars Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:37 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Problem for him, in those bigger states

Hillary is carrying the white and older and hispanic vote by wide margins.

Thats a major major problem with bigger populations.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:43 AM
Response to Reply #7
10. I agree. And there isnt a lot of time to turn that around.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Essene Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 06:31 AM
Response to Reply #7
17. and SC will be framed as a "black thing" after all the race baiting
Edited on Wed Jan-23-08 06:33 AM by Essene
He's toast.

Once he was cast as "the black candidate" going into SC, it was over.

The discomfort (to be polite) with him as a "black" candidate being perceived as fueled by black outrage... means he is unlikely to gain the momentum he needs for Feb 5th. He may do well on delegates, but i don't see him pulling ahead after the 5th.

Not unless something remarkable happens or unless the general outrage at Hillary grows.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:40 AM
Response to Reply #2
8. He did well in NH, in case you've forgotten. He lost to her by 3 pts
in a state that's 97% white. Having said that, yes of course his decreasing appeal to white voters is a bigger problem for him than her collapse of support- and collapse is the only word for it- among AA voters. However, it's extrememly problematic for her as the eventual nominee. If the black vote is sufficiently alienated to sit it out, we lose the general. Period. And that is not an impossibility. The racial divide that's become apparent is bad news for Obama, Hillary, the dems and America. Why people can't grasp this obvious fact, is a mystery to me.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
sunonmars Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:48 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. I just noticed something i didnt know

Jesse Jackson Jr is for Obama

His brother Yusef has endorsed Hillary and so has Mrs Jackson Sr

That family get together must be fun at the moment.

Kudos to them for following their own convictions.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:59 AM
Response to Reply #11
14.  True! I think they're lucky though.... At least they are all Dems. In my world
Edited on Wed Jan-23-08 05:00 AM by wlucinda
those family members living closest to us, are all Republicans. :)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:55 AM
Response to Reply #8
13. I don't think we lose the general over it. First of all, I think it will sort itself out,
It was a media driven event and those, from my obsevation, and I could be way wroing...but media driven things are usually blips in polling.

Hillary's positives and negatives in SC were equal to Obamas on the last polling I saw. So black voters, in SC at least, don't appear to dislike Hillary...they are just FOR Obama.

I also think Obama will be fine in the long run if he gets the nomination. I think this whole thing is more of a media created divide.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 06:44 AM
Response to Reply #8
19. That's precisely what I'm worried about
I'm wondering if Edwards is safe haven from the scorched earth campaigning.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
angie_love Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 08:42 AM
Response to Reply #2
23. .
you're fucking full of shit. obama carried the white vote in rural parts of Nevada and he got large slices of the white vote in New Hampshire too. Nice spin though, won't work.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
avrdream Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:20 AM
Response to Original message
3. Interesting.
I haven't had a chance to dig through the Zogby details so I thank you for bringing them here.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:28 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. You're welcome! This piece doesn't really show the full effect of the debate on the numbers
so it's likely to be even more interesting with the next poll data we get.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
oasis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:23 AM
Response to Original message
4. Obama's inexperience came shining through Monday night. I hope he
can put the country and party first and exit the campaign with dignity.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:40 AM
Response to Reply #4
9. I don't see him going anywhere for a while. Unless SC goes wonky
he'll get a media boost. And open primary states could be good for him. Plus he's got good delegate numbers.

I do think Hillary is likley to do much better than people are expecting in SC...which would definitely drive the media for a few days leading into Super Tuesday.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
oasis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:52 AM
Response to Reply #9
12. Agreed. But Obama will eventually throw in the towel. Just do it with class.
Please.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Apollo11 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 06:30 AM
Response to Reply #4
16. Please don't worry about Obama's dignity.
Barack is doing just fine thanks, even without your endorsement.

He is already ahead in elected delegates, and is set to win big in SC.

So it's hard to see any reasons why he should think about quitting.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Apollo11 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 06:25 AM
Response to Original message
15. Since the CNN debate, Obama has increased his lead in SC
According to the latest poll that was done in SC, the numbers are Obama 44, Clinton 28, Edwards 15, undecided 12.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_SC_Release_012208.pdf
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Essene Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 06:34 AM
Response to Reply #15
18. Of course, but SC is a trap now that he's cast as the "black candidate"
Hillary's race baiting has all but assured a victory after Feb 5th, unless Obama wins MASSIVELY among whites in SC.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #15
24. No. The poll was done on the 21st. Is says nothing about being taken post debate.
The poll that has partial post debate sampling, shows changes.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Perry Logan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 07:10 AM
Response to Original message
20. The Obama people thought they were going to win New Hampshire, too.
Edited on Wed Jan-23-08 07:12 AM by Perry Logan
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Unsane Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 07:55 AM
Response to Original message
21. Or your poll is just bullshit.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:42 PM
Response to Reply #21
25. Thanks for the kick!
Edited on Wed Jan-23-08 02:44 PM by wlucinda
:hi:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
robbedvoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 08:00 AM
Response to Original message
22. Zogby smartly hedges his bets. Depends on how many women show up.
Will SC match NH and Nevada? Did those polls ask 57-59 women in their sample? To be seen.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Tue Apr 30th 2024, 05:08 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC