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Even with no delegates Florida could be a campaign killer

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sunonmars Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:59 AM
Original message
Even with no delegates Florida could be a campaign killer
Edited on Wed Jan-23-08 05:27 AM by sunonmars
Now hear me out of this before you start attacking the 0 delegate thing

1 : Florida is 3 days after SC
2 : Hillary seems to be taking that by a very wide margin

Obama's victory if it happens in SC and it looks like it will, will be very shortlived. Regardless what you think Florida will matter to the msm and to the people around the country. We've lost the last 2 elections primarily because of Florida. People will notice if Hillary walks of with that massive vote.

Momentum if any stopped dead again for Obama.

Apparently a lot of the votes are already in, in Florida due to absentee and early voting, so 3 days is not a lot of time. I've heard Hillary's absentee and early voting has amounted to the region of approx 72% as Florida also has a huge older voter base and hispanic and latino base.

Obama has BIG problems here.

Any momentum from SC is shortlived because Hillary kills that 3 days later with Florida, you may say it has no delegates but it DOES matter. The perception by the MSM and the people will be all that matters. So in fact it is Hillary who gets the momentum going into ST, not Obama.

Hillary winning Florida by perhaps 30% would be a huge blow to Obama's campaign and the subsequent press.

Discuss?
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pampango Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 05:08 AM
Response to Original message
1. True. Politics is partly perception. Without campaigning in the state
name recognition is even more important and she is stronger with Hispanics and senior citizens.

The fact that there are no delegates at stake will be played up by Obama and down by Clinton. I'm not sure how much of a bounce she got from Michigan, but Obama and Edwards had taken their names off that ballot. I wonder if the repub primary in Florida will overshadow ours, as it seemed to do in Michigan, in terms of media play.
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sunonmars Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 05:10 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. The MSM are going to milk this, its an important battleground

People need to realise this.

Ignore Florida at our peril we need them Nov 5th.
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VarnettaTuckpocket Donating Member (559 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 05:22 AM
Response to Original message
3. Let the Obamites have their delegate count, Big Mo in the media is preferable
And yep, Florida isn't just any state, is it.
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Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 05:25 AM
Response to Original message
4. No one will get an easy pass
This campaign is going to go down to the wire -- just the way the Press wants it to.

--p!
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ArkySue Donating Member (647 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 05:25 AM
Response to Original message
5. What about Obama's ads in Florida?
The candidates all pledged to not campaign there.
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