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South Carolina Zogby poll: Obama 43%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 15% (MOE 3.4%)

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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 10:23 AM
Original message
South Carolina Zogby poll: Obama 43%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 15% (MOE 3.4%)

Clinton and Edwards are virtually tied among white voters, with Clinton leading 33 percent to 32 percent, while Obama is third among whites at 18 percent. Likely black voters make up slightly more than half of the poll sample.

"Obama is doing very well among African-Americans but getting a decent share of the white vote in a three-way race," pollster John Zogby said.


-snip

The majority of the polling in the three-day survey was done before Monday night's angry debate in Myrtle Beach, where Obama and Clinton traded harsh accusations about their records and Edwards chastised the pair for their squabbling.

In the one night of polling conducted after the debate, Edwards, a former North Carolina senator who won the South Carolina primary during his failed presidential bid in 2000, appeared to have made some slight gains, Zogby said.

"The question is, who does Edwards help and hurt? What impact does he have?" Zogby said.

-snip

Obama led consistently among almost all sub-groups, including men, women, liberals, conservatives, young voters, low-income voters, high-income voters and union households.

Clinton edged Obama out among the oldest voters, above age 70, usually her greatest strength. Edwards led Obama among Republicans.


http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/01/pollobama_has_big_lead_on_clin.php
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wndycty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 10:24 AM
Response to Original message
1. What percentage of the white vote does Obama need to keep folks from. . .
. . .marginalizing he potential victory in SC?
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THUNDER HANDS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 10:25 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. depends
to Clinton, he would probably need 115%.
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cobalt1999 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 10:29 AM
Response to Reply #1
6. He needs balance
If it's 70% AA and 10% white, that'll be the message by the media.

A 60% AA and 40% white wouldn't carry the same baggage.
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 10:35 AM
Response to Reply #1
9. If they each got roughly a third, he'd be good to go
Edwards is now tying Clinton, so she no longer has the advantage among whites. If Obama could take an added 8-10% of the white vote, it could pull him close enough in.
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MrsT Donating Member (427 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 10:25 AM
Response to Original message
3. "Edwards led Obama among Republicans"
If it was Obama or Clinton leading among Republicans, there would be many threads ripping into them for it. But since it is Edwards, it will either be ignored or spun around here.
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robbedvoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Old habits die hard. 70% of his voters in 2004 were Bushies.
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Blarch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 10:26 AM
Response to Original message
4. "Edwards led Obama among Republicans."
ooops.
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robbedvoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 10:29 AM
Response to Original message
7. I see they strangely enough asked GOP-ers. Did they sample 57-59% women? Dems?
Edited on Wed Jan-23-08 10:31 AM by robbedvoter
because, you see, this IS a Democratic primary, Bush spiritual adviser endorsing Obama notwithstanding

No complaints from me, BTW, just waiting for more pollsters to go up in flames....
Unless of course, open primaries does mean GOP-ers will show up to vote "against Hitlery"
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 10:30 AM
Response to Original message
8. Edwards tied with Clinton among whites
I think that's significant news from this poll.
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Tom Rinaldo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 11:14 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. This is the contested Primary that Edwards actually won in 2004
His birth state and next neighbor state to his entire political career. He was always expected to lose the black vote in South Carolina to Obama and Clinton. His strength should be among South Carolina whites.
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. No argument on the expectation
Until now, as far as I've seen, it seemed to have been an unfulfilled expectation that he could beat Clinton among whites, unrelated to the black vote.
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bdamomma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 10:38 AM
Response to Original message
10. oh I hate these stupid polls.
Edited on Wed Jan-23-08 10:40 AM by alyce douglas
I want to see Edwards make some gains.
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #10
13. Why are they stupid? Because Edwards is last?
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Dems Will Win Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 12:03 PM
Response to Reply #10
14. sorry wrong year. Obama sucked all the oxygen money and votes up
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