WP, pg1: Clinton Looking Beyond South Carolina; Focus on 4 Delegate-Rich States Considered Risky

Clinton Now Looking Beyond S.C.
Focus on 4 Delegate-Rich States Is Considered Risky
By Anne E. Kornblut and Shailagh Murray
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, January 23, 2008; Page A01


Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton greets supporters at a rally in Salinas, Calif, where she received the endorsement of the United Farm Workers union. (Elise Amendola/AP)

SALINAS, Calif., Jan. 22 -- The next Democratic presidential nominating contest will take place in South Carolina on Saturday, but Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has already turned her full attention to places such as this: delegate-rich pockets of states that will vote in a tidal wave of primaries two weeks from now.

Clinton has been focused on California, New York, New Jersey and Arkansas since her defeat in the Iowa caucuses earlier this month, betting that she can sweep states where her name recognition and popularity are strong. The logic seems simple: She represents New York in the Senate, and New Jersey is next door; she was the first lady of Arkansas for a decade; and California will be the biggest prize when 22 states vote on Feb. 5. But in a system that awards delegates by congressional district, with some worth more than others, the calculation is far from straightforward, and Clinton backers fear that the setup could boost Sen. Barack Obama if he fares well in populous corners of key states.

Her strategists call it a "game of chess," part of the byzantine path to the Democratic nomination in a campaign that has pitted two strong front-runners and a determined third candidate, former senator John Edwards, in a tight battle from one contest to the next.

The approach is demanding. Clinton made a one-day cross-country round trip to visit this vital district, a heavily Hispanic area with a number of less-affluent voters who her advisers believe are likely to support her. She hopes to sweep the entire state of California, and polls have shown her doing well statewide, but it is just as critical that she pick up the five delegates that come with the Salinas area. Under the Democratic nominating rules, 70 percent of California's delegates will be awarded on a district-by-district basis; the remaining 30 percent will go to the candidate who wins statewide. The same is true for the other big-prize states, forcing the Clinton and Obama campaigns, despite their record fundraising and an avalanche of media attention, to make carefully targeted choices about where to send the contenders and where to place ads....

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Clinton strategists have done the math. More than four in 10 of the delegates awarded on Feb. 5 (the day when half the overall Democratic delegates will be won) lie in the four states at the heart of their plan: California, New York, New Jersey and Arkansas....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/22/AR2008012203517.html

Seems smart to me. She isn't going to win SC, so focus on Super Tuesday...simple.

Suppose she focuses on those four states, but only picks up, say, 40% of the delegates from them. She cannot necessarily trade off the other states. It is complicated.

As a friend said to me yesterday - Hillary is playing chess and Obama is playing checkers.

Now that's a fact.

the hell, the clintons have done the math and know what is the right thing to do. Having the support of the united farm workers is a great thing and in monday nights debate hrc was playing more to the 2/5 states then she was to sc voters. While obama is out there deciding whether to stratch his watch or wind his butt cause Bill has gotten to him HRC goes on about the business of campaigning and winning the nomination.....