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Obama unelectable? He is losing to McCain...in Massachussetts

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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:47 PM
Original message
Obama unelectable? He is losing to McCain...in Massachussetts
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Happyhippychick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:49 PM
Response to Original message
1. McCain isn't going to get the nomination, it will go to Romney.
McCain won't do well in the primaries in states that don't allow Independents to vote and those are coming up. He has done well in the first contests because Independents can vote but that is not the case in many states.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:52 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. Obama runs 11 points worse than Hillary against Romney in this state
Edited on Wed Jan-23-08 02:54 PM by jackson_dem
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Happyhippychick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:54 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. But didn't you say it was Massachusetts? Romney's state?
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:55 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. Romney is from Massachusetts against both Hillary and Obama.
Him being from Massachusetts does not explain Hillary running 11 points better than Obama against him.
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Happyhippychick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:18 PM
Response to Reply #12
25. Sorry, didn't read it carefully. I still can't get behind one poll and panic.
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Marrah_G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #9
39. Romney is despised here in Mass
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Radical Activist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:56 PM
Response to Reply #1
13. Romney can't win a single southern primary
therefore he can't win the nomination.
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Dawgs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:50 PM
Response to Original message
2. GE polls don't mean shit until after the nominees are selected.
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Kittycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:50 PM
Response to Original message
3. In one sate - are you kidding me?
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:51 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. If he can't win this very blue state how is he going to win Ohio or Florida?
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Bluebear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:15 PM
Response to Reply #3
24. yeah - MASSACHUSETTS, not Idaho!
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ronnykmarshall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:49 PM
Response to Reply #3
37. The last time Mass voted for a Republican was '84 & '80.
Before that it was 1956.
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sunonmars Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:52 PM
Response to Original message
5. You can add on top of that

Clinton taks California by 19 and Obama only by 6 with a 6 margin of error. Too close.

Clinton also takes NEW York by 13 and Obama takes it by 6 with a 6 moe. Too close again.

Something wrong in these states for Obama.
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MrsT Donating Member (427 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:52 PM
Response to Original message
6. Clinton doesn't do to well against McCain in many blue state polls either
I am not worried about it. McCain has the celebrity status that Rudy used to have, for now.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:54 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Obama has celebrity status too but loses a state even mcGovern won
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MrsT Donating Member (427 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:10 PM
Response to Reply #8
21. Wrong
Remember when everyone in the media had nothing but good things to say about Giuliani? That is what McCain has right now. Obama doesn't get that. Just like America liked Rudyless the more they got to know him, the less America will like McCain when they get to know him.

You are making the mistake of regarding polls as some sort of proof. Plenty of polls show Clinton not doing well.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:12 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. Obama got it for 11 months until a couple days ago
Even now the press is as positive about him as they are about McCain.
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MrsT Donating Member (427 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #23
27. You must be anti-Obama to the point of delusion
to think that.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. Studies back what I said up
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MrsT Donating Member (427 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #29
32. Go ahead and tell yourself that.
Aren't you due for a new anti-Obama thread?
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Alexander Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:02 PM
Response to Reply #29
45. And you will conveniently never cite these "studies"...
Even though they'd help your case.
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rox63 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:54 PM
Response to Original message
10. In the end, Massachusetts will support the Dem nominee
Whoever it is. I know my home state.
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Radical Activist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:55 PM
Response to Original message
11. The difference between Obama and Hillary
is that when people get to know Obama better his numbers go up. Hillary's numbers have done nothing but remain stagnant or gone down over time. There's no room for improvement with Hillary like there is with Obama.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. So we should "hope" things will "change" and MAYBE Obama will carry Massachusetts?
Talk about expanding the map...We need to be fighting on their turf, not trying to protect perhaps the most progressive state.
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Radical Activist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. No, we just use reason and look at trends.
Trends are that Obama wasn't as well known at the start and continues to gain in popularity as people get to know him better. Another trend is that Hillary has plateaued and will never do better in the polls than she's doing now. I suppose that makes Obama a gamble, but he's a better chance than betting on a sure loser.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. "hoping" it to be so does not make it so
Edited on Wed Jan-23-08 03:04 PM by jackson_dem
Obama started with 80% name ID and has not improved in match ups with the Rethugs over the past year. Hillary has.

Your argument is Obama may win Massachusetts. If he barely will win here, under a "hopeful" scenario, how badly will he lose Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Colorado?
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hedgehog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:03 PM
Response to Original message
16. Undecided, 6%, margin of error 4.2% ..........nt
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:05 PM
Response to Reply #16
19. Another Obamite arguing Obama MAY win Massachusetts
If he will struggle to win Massachusetts he has no shot in the swing states...That makes him unelectable.
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EffieBlack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:05 PM
Response to Original message
18. You're a reall piece of work
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #18
20. I want Democratic victory, not another Dukakis
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EffieBlack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #20
28. You seem far less interested in a Democratic victory than in consistently bashing Obama
If you were really interested in a Democratic victory, you would put your time and energy into getting BEHIND a candidate. Instead, you seem absolutely obsessed with destroying Obama, which will do nothing to guarantee victory in November.
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Catherine Vincent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #28
30. Word!
But I wish you'd remind Obama supporters also.
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B Calm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:11 PM
Response to Original message
22. I feel Obama and Hillary are unelectable! Edwards is our best choice!
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kerry-is-my-prez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #22
35. I agree - but if Edwards doesn't start going up - I'll switch to Clinton. She's more electable.
I'm not too crazy about anyone in the race....
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cooolandrew Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:29 PM
Response to Original message
26. Let's be real despite polls either cndidate will run ring s round mccain who isn't as quick witted..
Edited on Wed Jan-23-08 03:35 PM by cooolandrew
...This poll shows both candidates are 50/50 with mccain.Which is outstaninding for all those who said Braack can't do it and Barack hasn't peaked yet.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm
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kerry-is-my-prez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:35 PM
Response to Original message
31. It looks like Clinton does better than Obama in most states-and people don't know Obama yet
I was looking at the results in most of the large states....

I'm a tepid Edwards supporter - so I don't have a dog in the Clinton vs. Obama fight but people know very little about Obama and I think when more dirt comes out about him his numbers will only go down. I didn't know about the slumlord and all of the nonvotes until the debate - and it didn't sound too good to me.

I haven't heard a good explanation of those two issues in the mainstream media - so only people who really follow these things would know the truth about them. Maybe there's a good reason for it. I haven't been on Dem Underground for a while so I'm sure people here have been picking this all apart.

People already know all the dirt about Hillary.

We cannot afford to lose to a Republican in 2008. I'm leaning Clinton if Edwards doesn't have a chance.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #31
36. Once they found out bad things about Obama like Rezko he will drop further
Edited on Wed Jan-23-08 03:49 PM by jackson_dem
I agree with you. If he is getting spanked in a state that even McGovern won right now it is shaky whether he can win it in November. If he can't win this state he is going to set up a rethug sweep of the swing states.

Interestingly, Edwards has the same name ID as Obama yet does much better than him in such polls, when he is included. JDNE

What you said is a big reason why Hillary is my second choice after Edwards.
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sunonmars Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:38 PM
Response to Original message
33. I just compared the same polls from 10 days ago
Edited on Wed Jan-23-08 03:47 PM by sunonmars
10 days ago ,Obama was winning mass. by 2% over mcCain but McCain has overtaken him in Mass, and pulled right up to him in California and New York in the last 10 days but Hilary has still maintained her big leads over McCain in these 3 states whereas Obama is dropping against McCain, thats not a good sign.



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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:50 PM
Response to Reply #33
38. CALIFORNIA AND NY too?!
We are fucked if we nominate him. :scared:
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sunonmars Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:54 PM
Response to Reply #38
41. yup

Hillary beats McCain by 19 in California and Obama only by 6 with an MOE of 6.

Hillary wins NY by 13 and Obama by 6 with an moe of 6.

I mean wtf. These are easy dem states.
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kerry-is-my-prez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:02 PM
Response to Reply #41
44. His numbers will only go down when the dirt all comes out....
I don't really like anyone this time around - Edwards comes the closest.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:08 PM
Response to Reply #44
46. Yup. How far behind would he be in November?
Losing Massachusetts by 15? Losing New York and California by 6? Guess what that means for Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Colorado, etc...
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kerry-is-my-prez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:10 PM
Response to Reply #46
47. It's scary - we cannot afford to lose in 2008 with an unknown candidate.
n/t
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:15 PM
Response to Reply #47
48. Obama=another Dukakis?
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Rosa Luxemburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:39 PM
Response to Original message
34. Clinton unelectable = 49
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Marrah_G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:53 PM
Response to Original message
40. Regardless of who gets the Nomination- MA will go to the Dems
If there is one state you can count on to give the Dems it's electoral votes it is this one.
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last_texas_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:58 PM
Response to Original message
42. From that poll the bigger question would be
what the hell is going on with MA? After maybe RI, they're about the most Democratic state in America. If the race is that close in MA, whether it's Clinton or Obama as the nominee, we're "screwn" nationwide. I'm hoping that something was flawed with the methodology of that poll, or else we really need to hope that McCain does not end up the Repug nominee.
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:01 PM
Response to Original message
43. and you take comfort from Hillary only running 4-pt ahead in MA against McCain?
a state dems carried by better than 60% in '00 and '04? Sounds like she's a pretty weak candidate too and that we should really fear a McCain nomination.
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sunonmars Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:50 PM
Response to Reply #43
49. and Obama running at a 5 point loss at the moment

and HRC with a 5 point lead, i'll take that thank you.
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Robbins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 08:49 PM
Response to Reply #49
50. Polls
Survey USA Is hardly the accute poll.Remember 2006.SOme polls were wrong like here In Missouri.In fall 2003 Bush was leading all the Dems candiates In their home states.Be more worried about Hillary
If she Is the nominee and how some Indepenedents and Denmocrats feel about her.
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sunonmars Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-24-08 07:09 AM
Response to Reply #50
51. Survey has been named the most accurate pollster on the block today

So its more trusted than the others.
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chascarrillo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-24-08 07:39 AM
Response to Reply #51
53. Yeah
Edited on Thu Jan-24-08 07:40 AM by chascarrillo
1
Asked of 658 likely republican primary voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.9%

If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for ...(names rotated) Rudy Giuliani? Mike Huckabee? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Fred Thompson? Ron Paul? Or some other Republican?

9% Giuliani
36% Huckabee
17% McCain
19% Romney
11% Thompson
5% Paul
1% Other
3% Undecided

SurveyUSA 1/7/08

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=c545964a-6c4c-4753-93de-04c12afb3975
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Marrah_G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-24-08 07:55 AM
Response to Reply #43
55. Those polls mean nothing- MA will support the Dem nominee. Period.
Anyone who lives here knows that.
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Perry Logan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-24-08 07:11 AM
Response to Original message
52. Y'all are living in the past. The Republican Era is over. Even they know they're screwed.
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robbedvoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-24-08 07:44 AM
Response to Original message
54. I don't buy "electability" as a concept. Any Dem can win if they count the votes
What matters in GE however is feistiness. Obama & supporters think that the present MSM lovefest will carry on. I have news for them: it was never a love fest - it was all to try to get rid of Hillary. Had Obama made it to GE, there wouldn't be whining enough in the universe for his reaction to the onslaught. if he thinks fighting 2 Clintons is hell....Maybe he's better off not knowing.
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