Those who are writing off Obama now are as silly as those who w/o Hillary after Iowa

After South Carolina there will have been only four competitive contests: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Iowa and (probably)South Carolina will be Obama wins--and by decent margins. New Hampshire and Nevada went to Clinton. So they go into Super Tuesday pretty even delegate wise and votes overall (actually Obama may have a slight edge in both in delegates chosen in contests).

Now I've seen threads saying Obama can't win any other states after South Carolina. Nonsense. On Super Tuesday he will probably win: Illinois, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and maybe even Arkansas. I also think he has a good shot at such lily white states as North Dakota and South Dakota. In North Dakota Senator Kent Conrad is running his campaign and it's a caucus state. South Dakota is also a caucus state and Tom Daschle and Sen. Tim Johnson are running the Obama effort in that state. Then there is California. I can't believe some people are writing Obama off in this state which is according to Rasmussen very close at this time (38-33 Hillary slightly ahead). I'm also interested in how Connecticut will do where Ned Lamont endorsed Obama--he put together a coalition which defeated Lieberman in the Democratic primary in '06.

So there is a long way to go and anybody who thinks that Hillary is finished if she comes in third in South Carolina (due to a surging John Edwards) is wrong as well. The week after Super Tuesday has contests in both Maryland and Virginia where Obama has a good chance in both (the Gov of VA came out for Obama as well).

I dont' think we will have a nominee for quite some time and Edwards will keep winning delegates too.

very white states? You seem very happy that the Clinton's have tried to make this a contest based on race which really diminished both Clinton's in my eyes.

Overall Obama has done well with White voters. He won them in Iowa and got over 30% of them in Nevada. Even in South Carolina he's doing pretty well. I think Clinton will win some black votes and Obama will win some white votes.

"It's not illegal unless they tell you so"

A few exceptions will not change the rule. Obama made his bed. He will enjoy his big win in South Carolina thanks to making race an issue but he will pay a price on Super Tuesday.

For many people he has successfully placed the blame with the Clintons for it.

Iowa: won
New Hampshire: Delegate tie
Nevada: Delegate win

So let's take a look.

Iowa: Obama won
NH: Obama-Clinton tie
Nevada: Obama won

Obama: 2.5

Clinton: .5

:rofl:

I can't wait to see the spin on Super Tuesday.

Obama's delegates compared to Hillary's are going to look rather less.

I doubt it with wins in Illinois, GA, Mississippi, Alabama, North Dakota, South Dakota and I think elsewhere as well he'll do okay. Even in California lets say Clinton wins narrowly over Obama then Obama gets a good share of delegates as well since it's proportional. I stand by what I said in my OP anybody who thinks this is over after SC is stupid...I mean silly.

But...but...he's so loved and she's so hated. How do you account for that?

it will probably be Obama who leads in the popular vote and delegates chosen in primaries.

Florida's primary is so going to steal Obama's thunder on Feb 29th. You can count on it. Its a very important state to Democrats out there. Its a big bellweather, people are watching it and Hillary has definitely got it in the Bag BIG.

You can whinge about 0 delegates all you like but people will only care who wins and loses in it.

She gets all the press before Super Tuesday.

basically ignored. It's another of those states that the DNC isn't seating at convention. I stand by my point that writing off Obama is as stupid as writing off Hillary at this point.

or refuse to, but its been the deciding factor in the last 2 elections. Its an important state to carry. It will have influence in its primary, fuck the delegates, this will be a huge perception win for Hillary.

You must be thick to think Florida isnt going to be a factor.

at this point--a South Carolina win in the first southern state will give Obama a big shot in the arm in other Southern states too.

easily have a breakthrough. Hillary could suffer some losses. Even Edwards, though he has a greater challenge, could emerge.

Sound bite played TWICE on "Hardball"

Nobody has any reason to be desperate.