California Field Poll Dem & GOP

Let's start with the Democrats
Clinton 39%
Obama 27%
Edwards 10%
"and by more than 2 to 1, his supporters say they would vote for Obama if Edwards were to drop out of the race, the poll showed."
"Still, 20 percent of likely voters don't know who they are going to support, largely because both Clinton and Obama are highly regarded among Democrats"
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/01/22/MNSNUJ0JA.DTL&feed=rss.news
Clinton is favored heavily by Latinos and wins every geographic region of the state.
The GOP
22% McCain
18% Romney
11% Giuliano
11% Hackable
MoE 5.2%
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080123/pl_nm/usa_politics_california_dc_3
I think these numbers are pretty good for Romney considering all the great press McCain has gotten. He can also easily afford TV time here in California.

to universal health care (though in carefully worded slogans that if scruitinized, don't actually make any promises). I have yet to see a single commercial for Obama or Edwards.

Hillary Rodham Clinton has begun running her first California television ad, targeting audiences in Northern California.

Clinton talks about the ailing economy, home foreclosures and the rising cost of health care and gasoline.

The 30-second spot started airing Thursday in the San Francisco Bay area and Sacramento, where a large number of the state's Democratic voters reside, as well as in Chico and Eureka.

Barack Obama was the first Democratic hopeful to go on television with a commercial that began running in the Bay area last weekend.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/01/17/politics/p150951S74.DTL

I think this is the ad in question

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/video/112.aspx

Here's Obama getting nailed for lying in his ads.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4169588&mesg_id=4169588

She ran an ad that aired in San Diego on Channel 10 during the local News.

talks about starting a $50 billion energy fund, to develop solar, wind and biofuels, and she says she would pay for it by taking away oil company subsidies - "They don't need your tax dollars any more" is her closing line.

According to the Field Poll the undecided are mostly older folks who are Hillary's strongest group...If you allocate the undecided proportionally it's HRC 51% BHO 35% JRE 14%...

DiCamillo said that even the large undecided segment - 1 in 5 - of the Democratic voters "shouldn't trouble Clinton too much." That's because those undecideds are "mostly older voters ... and she's leading by 22 points among that segment," he said. "You can expect many of them will break Hillary's way."


IMHO, HRC will win at least seventy percent of the primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and about sixty percent of the delegates... The discrepancy is caused by the weird way delegates are allocated...

After all, according to the polls, it's a foregone conclusion for the nomination.