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I keep hearing things like "Hillary is a bulldog and thats what we need to beat the Rs" or "The clinton's experience with the Rovian slime machine give them an edge in defeating it". These are valid points yet they ignore important and overiding (IMO) trends in US politics these last 12 months or so. Those trends are the US public's increasing disenchanment with the right, the fracture of the Republican coalition of Business, Military and evagelicals as well as a shift for Independents towards progressive candidates.
A. Effect of a Hillary candidacy on the election and government if succesful: IMO a Hillary candidacy will have two adverse consequences on the electorate, first it will restore consensus and unity among rank and file Republicans who (unfairly in my opinion) have a very negative view of the Clintons in general and second it will divide the Independant vote more evenly than we saw in the midterms again due to a generally negative (and undeserved in my opinion) view of the Clintons. These factors have an additional negative effect in the House and Senate where we are poised to pick up seats and expand our majorities due to the lack of "coattails" especially in "purple" districts and states.
That said I still see Hillary winning a relatively close 51-49 or 52-48 race ala the last two presidential elections. But what does this leave us with in respect to US politics? Hillary will be faced with, yet again, a divided electorate, a significant built in opposition with a very negative view of her presidency, and the mess that Bush left her to boot. This plus an Republican establishment that will spend every waking minute trying to undermine her will simply serve to deepen the lines of division that are already so evident in our democracy.
B. Effects of an Obama candidacy. True Obama does not have the down and dirty experience that the Clintons have when fighting the Repukes, but in today's current atmosphere will he need it? Due to the electoral trends cited above the Repukes (IMO) will have a harder time making their slime stick to a candidate who has wider overall appeal and who evokes far fewer negative emotions on the Right and among Independents. Will traditional conservatives be as motivated to close ranks against a candidate who's message is conciliatory? Not only that but a concerted Repuke smear campaign, in light of their recent failures, is more likely to push more moderate Rs and Independents over to Obama.
I see an Obama run resulting a a slightly larger victory margin of 55-45 or along those lines with the added benefit of long coattails maybe even establishing a filibuster proof advantage in the Senate. Add to this his message of healing political divisions may give us some respite from the sleazefest we have witnessed during the Rove era.
I respect Hillary, her negatives are IMO historically undeserved, but Hillary in the General is the Right's wet dream, even in losing they get a walking, talking wedge issue that guarantees a delay to the inevitable fracture of the fragile coalition. Obama would IMO act as a wedge as well, albeit a smily faced well mannered likable wedge that would break apart the Republican coalition and return some semblance of sanity to US politics.
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