SurveyUSA California Poll: Obama closing gap

In CA, Obama Closes On Clinton; Had Been Down 37, Now 11:

In a Democratic Primary in California today, 01/28/08, eight days to the vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 49% to 38%, according to this latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno.

Compared to SurveyUSA's most recent CA poll released two weeks ago, before Obama's South Carolina win, Hillary Clinton is down 1 point, Obama is up 3 points, and John Edwards, who finishes today at 9%, is down 1 point.

In October, Clinton led Obama by 37 points; today, it's 11 points. Obama today leads among men by 11 points; Clinton leads among women by 30 points -- a 41-point Gender Gap. Clinton today takes 43% of the white vote; Obama takes 41, a virtual tie, and significant in that Clinton led among white voters by 25 points at the beginning of December. Click here to see that tracking graph.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7417510e-b5e4-4e94-a6f2-fd6e70635255

that is my prediction. Also the young vote for Obama will be a bigger spread IMO.

Hillary leading absentee voters in California 53%-30%, about 50% of votes expected to be absentee

http://www.calendarlive.com/media/acrobat/2008-01/34975049.pdf

Absentee voters are strongly supporting Clinton by 53% to 30%.

This is not a poll. These are real votes, cast and counted.

I'm a little confused.

Welcome to DU!

It isn't always this crazy...

:hi:

I am not sure where the OP says that these are "actual" votes, since they haven't been counted

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_oc.htm

Those are the actual counts? Are they supposed to be giving that information out? I thought that while the ballots are counted before the polls close, that they wouldn't/shouldn't be giving that information out.

"About half of voters are expected to use mail-in ballots -- which have been available since Jan. 7 -- and Clinton was romping over Obama among that group, 53% to 30%. Among those expecting to cast ballots in a traditional precinct visit, the race was a closer 42% to 34% in Clinton's favor. Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney was also running stronger among mail-in voters, if still behind McCain."

I just don't like the idea of any vote totals being given out before polls close.

...absentee ballots cannot be counted usually until election day.

:)

I tried to look earlier today on this and couldn't come up with anything.

And it's safe to assume that around that time, Clinton's lead as moderately large.
This is an article dated January 6th, 2008 from what seems to be a CA radio station news website:



http://www.ktvu.com/politics/14988786/detail.html

or the actual vote counts?

:)

early voters favored Clinton, because it is now clear that Obama will make this tight as we approach February 5th. He might be statistically tied with her soon; but again, those who already voted did so without having seen the media manufactured race-war and the impressive Obama win in South Carolina, events that were both beneficial to Obama.

I do believe that early votes were favored towards Clinton.

:hi:

Immediately upon the close of polls on election day, the county elections officials and the Secretary of State begin what is called the "semifinal official canvass of the vote" - the tallying of early-returned vote-by-mail ballots and the ballots cast in each of the state's 24,000+ voting precincts. The semifinal official canvass begins at 8:00 p.m. on election night and continues uninterrupted until the last precinct is counted and reported to the Secretary of State.
The vote tallying process actually begins before election night, with the vote-by-mail ballots. Any county that counts its ballots by computer (all 58 do) may begin processing vote-by-mail seven (7) days before the election. Having verified the signatures on the return envelopes, elections officials remove the voted ballots and process them through their vote tallying system. Under no circumstances may they tabulate the results until after the close of polls on election day. Most counties continue this processing until they begin their election-day preparations for counting the precinct vote. Mail ballots not counted by that time and all those received on election day, either through the mail or at the precincts, are tabulated during the official canvass of the vote.



http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_oc.htm

Under no circumstances may they tabulate the results until after the close of polls on election day.

Because exit polls are known for being much more accurate than regular pre-election polls.
When an exit poll is said to be inaccurate, it's because it was off by 4-6%, I would say, and even assuming that this "exit poll" was as flawed as it could have been, it means that Clinton still won the votes cast so far by a large margin.

And reading the pdf link given by one DU member earlier in this thread, it seems that yes, many voters have indeed already cast their ballots. Read this excerpt:



http://www.faceoxy.com/index.php?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.calendarlive.com%2Fmedia%2Facrobat%2F2008-01%2F34975049.pdf

What this would mean is that Clinton got lucky that many voters did not see Obama's SC win or the subsequent press coverage before voting.

I'm hoping not so much this year...

One thing that is overlooked is the class gap between Obama and Hillary's support. Obama is getting beaten badly among Latinos and Asians in California. He needs a healthy margin among whites coupled with a repeat of South Carolina's four out of five black votes performance to have a chance in California.

NOTHING IS CERTAIN ABOUT CALIFORNIA

The independents and nonpartisans will decide California

who plan to turn out for Obama next week.

I vote absentee, and I will be casting my vote for Obama

What will determine California WILL NOT BE THE Democrats or the republicans, but the INDEPENDENTS and those who decline to state.

They have a choice of ballots, either nonpartisan, Independent, or Democratic

The repukes require that if you want to vote republican in California, you must be registered as a republican

You say these are real votes, not a poll, on what basis if they haven't been counted?


http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_oc.htm

Under no circumstances may they tabulate the results until after the close of polls on election day.

the close of the polls on election day. Pretty elementary.

the women of California hear about the handshake issue tomorrow.

Obama had already turned away BEFORE Clinton tried to shake Kennedy's hand. There is no snub, it was an error corrected by the original source. I'll try to find the thread and post it here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4261467

see post number ten, the OP corrects his own thread. Ethical behavior I admire at DU.

and needs help, that is why Ted was going with obama to campaign there.

Does anyone know if it is a winner take all state for the delegates?

Didn't Hil get more delegates than Edwards even though she came in third?