My 12/07/07 Prediction that McCain would be the GOP Nominee was spot on!

FrenchieCat (1000+ posts) Fri Dec-07-07 02:54 PM
Original message
PREDICTION: McCAIN will be the GOP's "COMEBACK" "Kid" in New Hampshire--
Edited on Fri Dec-07-07 03:00 PM by FrenchieCat
Because on the GOP side, Guliani is on the decline, and will continue to drop. Too "Iffy" in reference to his personal life story and too much shit in his closet (cross dresser/3 wives/adultery/children that don't talk to him/corruption scandals in the wings(Berney Kerik & documented 9/11 incompetence) will eventually make their way to front page headlines if he is the nominee.

It is feared by the Pubs that Huckabee would be defeated by Clinton due to his lack of foreign policy experience (and the fact that Bill was governor in Arkansas, and if needed to win Arkansas, Clark would be added on the Ticket as Hillary's VP....thereby blowing Huckabee out of the waters in the General Election).

McCain is currently running a "distant" 2nd in NH but won it the last time he ran there. http://www.usaelectionpolls.com /

McCain, according to the media was RIGHT on the Surge,.....and this will be highlighted more and more by the media, the closer the vote.......

The evangelical vote will split out between Huckabee and Romney and become a watered down non factor.

Fred Thompson and Ron Paul will get the "on the margin" Repug Voters.

Independents and Moderate Pubs will Vote MCCAIN.

McCain has a well known and impressive hero story, is still loved by the press but currently underreported (this will be changing within the next week). He has the Foreign Policy creds that the Repugs need in order to actually run a "scare 'em" campaign...which is their only chance at a win to the WH....cause economic issues ain't real good for the GOP right now.

I believe that McCain is laying low relatively low, and like Kerry did back in 2004 for the Democrats, will come out as a surprise winner due to his resume.

Democrats don't expect this, which is why it will happen.
Democrats are underestimating McCain at their own peril.
The media love a good story, and that one would be great for them.
The media has McCain documentaries already in the can.
They will highlight the fact that he is a War hero, over and over again.
There will be no way for the Democrats to deny his heroism, and therefore, any swiftboating move will not be effective.

MY analysis if McCain ends up as I believe he will, the nominee for the Repugs goes like this:

Hillary Clinton would give McCain a good fight and could win. She has Bill and her own experience in the White House to counter McCain's experience. Both Hil and McCain are seen as tough as nails, and she has as much gravitas as he does. The fact that Hil could do good in the South (especially with a Clark or a Webb on the ticket) as she did live there and Bill governed there makes her attractive. One might see more single women register to vote in order to vote for one of their own. Repug women might secretly vote for one of their own no matter what they say.

The experience of having ran and won a White House twice before would also be helpful. Hillary would have her work cut out for her, but she could do it.

Hil hasn't not accepted public financing; McCain has or has not ruled out public financing. If he has, Hil has not, and she has the advantage. If he hasn't, he is in better position, but has not much money now.


Obama would also do best against McCain. He is the single best symbol of change against the oldest man running for president ever. In addition, the Repugs would have to be "careful" on how they run a negative campaign against Obama. Obama is the exact opposite of McCain; young, charismatic, pensive and engaging. His lack of a long senate career and his consistent record would also help him. His proven good judgment on calling the Iraq war what it was; dumb....gives him the edge over the other IWR Democratic candidates. Obama can clearly state that he would not have voted for the IWR, something that McCain cannot say. Obama would energize youth and Minorities currently not voting into registering to vote. The swing purple states could change the map toward Obama. And I don't believe for one minute the CW from some camp that in the privacy of the ballot box, White folks wouldn't vote for Obama. Hell, if the Teevee show "24 hours" can have a Black President featured and shown as mainstream, I believe that Americans will not think of it as an impossibity. I believe that Obama would be a good fit against McCain....not because of their similarities, but because of their differences.

Again, Obama has not accepted public funds, which puts him in a superior position to the other Democratic candidates...and equal footing with Hillary. I cannot confirm that McCain has accepted matching funds. If someone has the information, please provide it to me.

John McCain would beat Joe Biden. Why? Because they both have been parked in the senate for a long time, but Biden represents the teeny Blue state of Delaware. Biden will be painted as another Blue State senator bound to lose. He is too much like McCain (but more spontaneous thank Maverickish) in some ways (old) but at the end of the day, the hero would win over the senate fixture......no matter how great Biden is on foreign policy.

McCain will find it easiest to beat John Edwards in a general election. McCain has the cancer story, just like the Edwards family. McCain has the underdog story, just like John Edwards. McCain comes from the Southwest and will be strong in this Swing regions of the country.....Edwards is from the South, but the South is still more Red than Purple. They are both White Males, so Edwards has no "edge" in that regard. The only edge that Edwards has is that he is good looking; however, his good looks have already been defined as a type of effeminated character flaw (haircut, etc..) and in fact, his looks may be more of an hinderance than we realize. The fact is, Edwards will appear as a lightweight standing next to John McCain. Edwards senate record can be easily questioned when jutapoxed against what he has been saying during this election; I was wrong before I was right will not play well....in particular after the media is finished with him. Edwards debating McCain on foreign policy will not bode well for Democrats. It's not that Edwards won't be right, it is that Edwards will be considered too inexperienced and too damn "I'm sorry" to be considered as effective as Commander in Chief.

McCain in a General Election against Edwards would do well all over the south, in the southwest, including Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico....states the Repugs need.

Edwards has opted for public financing and therefore is limited during those crucial months from the time the Nominee is known (will be in mid February this time round) till the National Convention (usually in June or July). That's at least, March, April, May, and most of June. That's a long time on a political clock.

I don't discuss Richardson and Kucinich, because as much as I like them, I see them as long shots.

Just ask that you watch closely at the reporting that will start on McCain about 2 weeks prior to the vote.
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