I think Clinton is going to win it all.

As much as I want Obama to win, I think that Edwards' dropping out was the nail in the coffin.

For better of for worse, it just doesn't look good when 80% of blacks vote lockstep for Obama, who is half-black. It provides fuel to the argument that this is now a racial campaign, which further will polarize the electorate.

I assume that Edwards' voters were a majority white. With him out of the primaries, and the primaries becoming more and more divided along racial lines, I assume that his black supporters will (for the most part) migrate to Obama's camp, while his white supporters will (for the most part) migrate to Clinton's camp.

Now, imagine that Obama wins the primaries on high black-turnout. Would that work in the general election? I sense a Reagan-esque beating if he'll need to rely on that strategy in the general election.

Speaking of the general election...

A poll shows that McCain easily beats both of our front-runners. Oh no...

I can't even imagine Obama trying to beat McCain!

I'm starting to think that Clinton has the best shot here, and I may end up supporting her. What do you think about all of this?

was that he was black and running for President; people generally don't pay close attention until the candidates begin campaigning in their state.

...but I hope you end up being right. What was Nevada like?

Nevada and the other primaries weren't that long ago/

at Florida on the Republican side--Rudy was handily winning until McCain and Romney showed up to campaign a couple weeks ago; Rudy finished in a distant third place.

...that Obama has been getting insane amounts of free and positive coverage anyways, one of the reasons I was supporting him.

People don't know jack shit about the issues in the CNN phase of an election; it's 100% branding, fluff and momentum. The problem is, while that can influence decisions, it's all at a very vague level. What occurs in a state is incredibly important to the final decision--otherwise they wouldn't be spending the scores of millions of dollars, now would they?

And you were supporting Obama because he got good media coverage? Sorry, but that's not exactly believable. You're starting to sound like a concern troll.

...and I felt that the positive coverage would help that.

BO became a very high profile person when he gave his now famous speech at the dem convention.

People in FL don't know who he is ???? What an insult to the fine folks of FL.

necessary to run a campaign, why do they bother?

2 years ago Hillary Clinton WILL BE the next president of the United States.

Michael Bloomberg.

I'm hopeful, but still nervous about the whole thing. I hope that next Tue. will provide a clearer picture.

Hillary is in the drivers seat. If Hillary can grab the majority of delegates on super tuesady, Obama I'm sure will stay in due to his stuborness but it will be a losing fight.

If democrats overwhelm then it does not matter what the polls say.
The polls just represent the percentage of a sample of people.
But if 50% of ,say, 1 million turnout for McCain
and 45% of 2 million turnout for the Democrat
then Democrats win.

Are you a closet Hillary supporter?

My main goal is getting the Republicans out. If Obama isn't the best choice, I don't have any reason to support him anymore. He's just a politician.

and the better candidate.

Clinton has strong built-in support from women and whites, both of which are a majority.

Obama has a strong uphill climb, always has.

Obama has done an amazing thing to get this far.

If I had to be money, Clinton will win this nomination.

I think Obama could win if he gets Edwards, Gore, and Carter to endorse him as that would in effect be a "no confidence" vote in Hillary but it's not going to happen.

I think Edwards will endorse Clinton which will be funny because he's the "anti corporate" guy who's going to springboard the quintessential (?sp) establishment corporate candidate to the nomination. If you really want to know Clinton, check her earmark record, it's funny.

Nader will hop in

Bloomberg may hop in.

McCain will be extremely hard to beat as long as the surge can still be spun as "going well".

Clinton will take a hard right turn in the GE and many here will be left with WTF?!?!? emotes and smilies.

She may win it all because the Clinton's are some wily and crafty sumbitches.

However, no one who really cares about change will win.

That's what I predict.

You spout the racist crap.

Color me skeptical.

And what "racist crap" are you talking about? Chill out!

while the Republicans seem not to really like any of their candidates -- that's what I meant. It doesn't seem likely to me that McCain can beat any of our candidates.

to start with?

But you sound awfully like a Hillarian posing as an Obamaniac.

First off I'm as disappointed as anyone concerning Edwards.

With that said, McCain does seem like the toughest GOP candidate come November especially if we get further split as a party during these primaries. I can see alot of moderate Dems even crossing over to vote for McLame. It wouldn't shock me to see my parents switch over if things get really ugly between Barack and Hillary during the next few months...Bottomline this is our opportunity to seize the WH but we need to get our act together and stop the fighting.

My biggest fear with Hillary is that she will so motovate the republicans and centrist independents that we will lose congress as well as the presidency.

than a couple southern ones, to beat the delegate race.

relevance to electability, which is a matter of state-by-state numbers and electoral votes.

Nationwide polls ARE, however, a useful tool to manipulate public opinion.

i also think obama has some chance of beating mccain

we can win this so long as we support our candidates.

That's my sense of it. Don't believe those polls--especially not before they post the margin of error. Have you been watching polls for very long? Every election I've followed had polls with the opposite result getting published right up to election day.

message are now natural Obamaites.